Monday 31 January, 2005
Media Statement

Minister welcomes back bumper class of 2005 – overall rolls up 4,900

The first of an estimated 758,300 New Zealand students will head off to school today, about 4,900 more than last year, says Associate Education Minister David Benson-Pope.

Total primary enrolments this year will be around 482,500, down by around 1,700 on last year or 0.4percent. However, secondary enrolments will be around 275,800, an increase of around 6,600 on last year or 2.5percent.

Actual school rolls will not be known until the March and July roll collection, but it is expected that around 9,900 new entrants will be enrolled at schools this week. They’ll be among an estimated 59,600 children who will start school for the first time throughout the year, around 2,300 more than last year.

"I warmly welcome all these young New Zealanders and their families into our education system," said Mr Benson-Pope. "I urge parents and caregivers to take an active interest in their children's learning and their wider school community.

"We are focused on raising student achievement and improving learning outcomes for all students. As a Government we have invested in more teachers and professional development for teachers, but it has to be acknowledged that the support and encouragement students get from home is also an important driver in the success of a child."

Most new school entrants will already have experience in education through attending an early childhood education centre. In 2004, 94% of new entrants had attended some form of early childhood education.

"Early childhood education is the foundation on which all future learning is built," says Mr Benson-Pope. "We are committed to increasing participation in quality early childhood education. "

At a regional level, one third of new entrants to school this year will be in the Auckland region. In most regions the number of new entrants is expected to be higher than last year. Only the Taranaki region is expected to show a decrease in the number of new entrants, though the decrease is small.

"We've added 2700 extra teachers, over and above those needed to match roll growth. Initiatives to recruit and keep teachers in the profession are working. Schools head into the year well placed for teachers to meet the demands presented by the 2005 roll."

Primary School:

Estimated Number of New Entrants by Region:
Region 2004 2005
Beginning of School Year Entire School Year Beginning of School Year Entire School Year
Northland 390 2 340 410 2 460
Auckland 3 160 18 950 3 290 19 730
Waikato 970 5 810 990 5 960
Bay of Plenty 670 4 010 690 4 160
Gisborne 130 790 140 850
Hawkes Bay 380 2 280 410 2 450
Taranaki 270 1 630 270 1 600
Manawatu/Wanganui 510 3 090 540 3 250
Wellington 1 030 6 180 1 090 6 550
Nelson/Malborough/Tasman 270 1 600 280 1 650
West Coast 70 410 70 410
Canterbury 1 090 6 530 1 120 6 740
Otago 380 2 260 390 2 340
Southland 230 1 360 240 1 440
All areas 9 540 57 250 9 930 59 580
* Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

A similar breakdown by TLA is attached, see final table in this document Estimated Territorial Local Authority Student Rolls.

Secondary School:

Around 63,100 Year 9 students (including adult students) are expected to enrol at New Zealand secondary schools this year, about 1,300 less than last year.

Estimated Number of Year 9 Students by Region:
Region 2004 2005
Northland 2 550 2 510
Auckland 20 960 20 410
Waikato 6 390 6 530
Bay of Plenty 4 440 4 260
Gisborne 820 840
Hawkes Bay 2 760 2 700
Taranaki 1 790 1 730
Manawatu/Wanganui 3 740 3 660
Wellington 6 840 6 580
Nelson/Malborough/Tasman 2 060 2 000
West Coast 450 480
Canterbury 7 490 7 350
Otago 2 660 2 670
Southland 1 430 1 360
All areas 64 360 63 100
* Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

Estimated Number of Students by Region:
Region 2004 2005
Primary (Year 1-8) Secondary
(Year 9-15) Primary (Year 1-8) Secondary (Year 9-15)
Northland 20 330 10 110 20 150 10 300
Auckland 158 310 87 970 159 340 91 110
Waikato 48 770 26 000 48 280 26 640
Bay of Plenty 34 230 17 610 34 340 18 000
Gisborne 6 770 3 320 6 670 3 360
Hawkes Bay 19 850 11 120 19 640 11 280
Taranaki 13 170 7 720 12 780 7 800
Manawatu/Wanganui 27 570 15 770 27 130 15 990
Wellington 50 820 29 120 50 840 29 880
Nelson/Malborough/Tasman 14 550 8 600 14 480 8 760
West Coast 3 790 1 700 3 570 1 760
Canterbury 55 400 32 290 55 170 32 860
Otago 19 200 11 730 18 900 11 900
Southland 11 380 6 190 11 180 6 170
All areas 484 130 269 260 482 480 275 810
* Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

School Roll Growth:
The number of primary school students peaked in 2003, with a decline seen in 2004 and a continuing decline expected thereafter.

In contrast, the number of secondary school students continues to grow and is expected to peak in 2008.

*Actual Student Rolls

Actual and Projected School Rolls: 1996 - 2014

Year Primary
(Y1 - Y8) Secondary
(Y9-Y15)
1996* 460 500 235 600
1997* 471 300 236 100
1998* 478 800 239 900
1999* 483 300 242 800
2000* 484 200 241 700
2001* 483 600 242 700
2002* 486 300 248 300
2003* 488 100 257 900
2004* 484 100 269 000
2005 482 500 275 800
2006 480 200 280 100
2007 477 400 280 600
2008 474 600 280 600
2009 476 100 278 600
2010 477 300 277 100
2011 477 000 277 000
2012 477 700 275 400
2013 475 000 275 800
2014 473 300 275 300
*Actual Student Roll excluding Teen Parent Units
Note: Primary figures are as at 1 July, Secondary figures are as at 1 March

Enrolments are influenced significantly by birth trends. In the last twenty years the peak for live births was 60,400 in 1992. Since 1992, the number of live births drifted downwards until picking up again in 2003 and 2004. These changes have a subsequent impact on the number of new entrants five years later. The high level of births experienced during the late 1980s and early 1990s has resulted in a student bulge with a peak in primary rolls in 2003 and expected peak in secondary rolls in 2008. The increase in births in 2003 and 2004 is expected to boost primary rolls in 2009 and eventually impact secondary rolls in later years.

Migration also influences roll levels. In the year ended June 2004, New Zealand experienced a net gain of close to 7,200 migrants aged 0 to 17 compared to a net gain of around 12,300 migrants aged 0 to 17 over the same period in the previous year. Gains from migration are expected to decrease for 2005, and remain steady in the short-term.

Enquiries:
Cheryl Remington
Manager Demographic and Statistical Analysis Unit
Phone: (04) 463 8071
Further information on school rolls can be found in the annual publication Education Statistics of New Zealand (Ministry of Education).

Estimated Territorial Local Authority Student Rolls:

Territorial Local Authority 2004 2005
Year 1 Beginning of School Year Year 1 Entire School Year Year 9 Students Primary (Years 1-8) Secondary (Years 9-15) Year 1. Beginning of School Year Year 1. Entire School Year Year 9 Students Primary (Years 1-8) Secondary (Years 9-15)
Ashburton 60 380 370 3 120 1 460 60 360 350 3 090 1 460
Auckland City 870 5 190 6 770 43 200 30 730 880 5 300 6 680 43 540 31 710
Banks Peninsula 20 100 10 680 40 20 90 10 670 40
Buller 20 120 150 1 140 540 20 120 140 1 050 550
Carterton 20 90 10 740 30 10 90 10 730 30
Central H.Bay 30 190 200 1 670 850 30 200 190 1 620 870
Central Otago 30 200 210 1 680 930 30 190 210 1 580 980
Chatham Is. County 10 80 10 90
Christchurch City 690 4 120 5 020 35 130 22 430 720 4 320 4 880 35 090 22 820
Clutha 50 270 240 2 160 930 40 270 240 2 150 970
Dunedin City 220 1 340 1 600 11 390 7 420 230 1 370 1 540 11 200 7 460
Far North 160 960 1 010 8 260 4 040 170 1 010 1 000 8 220 4 180
Franklin 160 960 820 7 880 3 220 180 1 080 820 7 960 3 370
Gisborne 130 790 820 6 760 3 320 140 850 790 6 690 3 370
Gore 30 180 180 1 520 850 30 170 170 1 490 830
Grey 30 200 200 1 730 820 30 200 200 1 660 840
Hamilton City 310 1 860 2 610 15 410 11 090 320 1 900 2 570 15 570 11 420
Hastings 190 1 140 1 340 9 790 5 310 200 1 200 1 290 9 790 5 350
Hauraki 40 230 410 2 240 1 570 40 250 400 2 180 1 610
Horowhenua 70 400 440 3 540 1 760 70 440 430 3 510 1 800
Hurunui 20 130 60 1 190 240 20 140 60 1 180 250
Hutt City 250 1 530 1 570 12 450 6 640 280 1 650 1 490 12 330 6 610
Invercargill City 120 730 940 6 380 3 950 110 650 890 6 310 3 880
Kaikoura 10 50 50 370 180 10 60 50 370 180
Kaipara 40 250 280 2 360 1 090 50 280 280 2 380 1 130
Kapiti Coast 100 600 730 5 090 2 760 90 530 700 4 910 2 790
Kawerau 20 140 140 1 200 480 20 150 140 1 210 490
Manawatu 60 360 420 3 500 1 660 50 290 400 3 350 1 640
Manukau City 930 5 580 5 340 46 420 21 220 1 000 6 000 5 320 45 640 22 090
Marlborough 90 510 570 4 500 2 300 90 550 560 4 580 2 390
Masterton 60 330 590 3 130 2 420 50 320 580 3 100 2 470
Matamata-Piako 80 490 500 4 130 1 900 90 520 480 4 070 1 920
McKenzie 10 60 40 450 190 10 70 40 440 190
Napier 130 810 1 100 7 040 4 430 150 900 1 080 7 000 4 560
Nelson City 90 520 930 4 820 4 030 90 540 890 4 800 4 060
New Plymouth 170 1 000 1 290 8 460 5 640 160 990 1 250 8 230 5 740
North Shore City 430 2 580 3 600 22 850 15 840 440 2 620 3 550 23 000 16 360
Opotiki 30 170 160 1 480 590 30 200 160 1 490 590
Otorohanga 20 120 100 1 110 410 20 110 100 1 060 420
Palmerston Nth City 170 1 020 1 320 8 520 5 890 170 1 030 1 280 8 510 5 960
Papakura 130 770 880 6 600 3 670 140 850 870 6 590 3 800
Porirua City 150 880 620 6 850 2 400 150 890 610 6 900 2 430
Queenstown-Lakes 40 250 200 1 920 880 50 270 200 2 010 930
Rangitikei 40 220 220 1 990 950 40 240 210 1 950 950
Rodney 210 1 260 1 030 10 170 3 650 220 1 300 1 040 10 260 3 830
Rotorua 190 1 150 1 260 9 610 5 080 210 1 240 1 200 9 680 5 060
Ruapehu 40 240 200 2 040 800 40 240 190 1 970 800
Selwyn 80 460 510 3 490 1 980 80 490 510 3 580 2 050
South Taranaki 80 480 320 3 580 1 300 80 470 310 3 500 1 320
South Waikato 70 440 430 3 570 1 690 70 420 420 3 470 1 710
South Wairarapa 20 120 130 990 490 20 110 120 970 490
Southland 80 450 310 3 480 1 400 80 490 300 3 420 1 420
Stratford 30 160 190 1 150 780 20 140 180 1 130 760
Tararua 50 270 280 2 360 1 130 50 280 270 2 310 1 120
Tasman 100 570 570 5 230 2 270 100 620 560 5 270 2 350
Taupo 80 460 460 4 070 1 770 80 470 460 3 970 1 850
Tauranga 250 1 480 1 860 12 510 7 210 260 1 580 1 840 12 790 7 470
Thames-Coromandel 50 320 340 2 800 1 270 60 360 340 2 740 1 330
Timaru 90 530 760 4 950 3 170 90 530 740 4 880 3 230
Upper Hutt City 90 530 730 4 860 3 080 90 540 720 4 820 3 160
Waikato 120 740 360 5 800 1 340 120 730 360 5 750 1 380
Waimakariri 100 580 610 4 950 2 360 100 610 610 5 000 2 470
Waimate 20 90 50 840 250 20 100 50 830 240
Waipa 110 680 810 5 710 3 680 120 720 770 5 780 3 660
Wairoa 20 140 130 1 340 520 30 160 130 1 310 530
Waitakere City 470 2 840 2 680 23 080 10 140 490 2 960 2 670 23 270 10 580
Waitaki 40 230 400 2 270 1 570 50 290 380 2 260 1 550
Waitomo 30 160 150 1 420 550 30 150 150 1 380 570
Wanganui 100 580 850 5 580 3 590 110 650 830 5 510 3 640
Wellington City 350 2 100 2 460 16 700 11 300 380 2 300 2 440 16 870 11 720
Western BOP 90 540 420 4 810 1 820 90 560 420 4 830 1 890
Westland 20 90 100 920 350 20 90 100 880 370
Whakatane 100 600 650 5 200 2 650 90 550 640 5 120 2 730
Whangarei 190 1 120 1 260 9 710 4 980 190 1 160 1 220 9 660 5 040
Total 9 540 57 250 64 360 484 130 269 260 9 930 59 580 63 100 482 480 275 810

Note1: Individual TLA's may not add to total due to rounding
Note2: Numbers provided in text and tables are subject to rounding.

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