Research says iPredict more accurate than polling

Research confirms iPredict more accurate than polling

New research out of the University of Michigan shows New Zealand prediction market iPredict significantly outperformed pollsters in the 2008 election. iPredict was the second-most accurate forecaster across the 2008 election campaign, beating all but one pollster and all 'polls of polls'.

"It's a pleasing result, but not surprising," said Matt Burgess, Chief Executive of iPredict. "Prediction markets have consistently beaten polls in election forecasting for twenty years overseas. It is quite simply a better way to forecast."

iPredict is forecasting key political and economic events such as the 2011 NZ election, the MMP referendum, the new top income tax rate, the next two OCR decisions, the Auckland mayoralty race, whether (and when) GST will go up, President Obama’s polling, the UK and Australian elections this year, and more. New forecasts can be easily added.

"Prediction markets operate 24/7, and that means continuous forecasting. When something in the world happens, expectations change and forecasts are revised in minutes, " said Mr Burgess.

"It's a real time measure of major political and economic events. And an accurate one, as the Michigan research proves."

More reading on this research: from iPredict: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/blog/?p=356 From political scientist Bryce Edwards: http://liberation.typepad.com/, 24 February post "Key To Victory"

iPredict welcomes the opportunity to work with media ahead of the 2011 election. Please direct enquiries to the CEO Matt Burgess, matt@ipredict.co.nz, 021 488 268. iPredict is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation, and operates under authorisation from the Securities Commission.

ENDS

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