IG Markets - Australian Market Wrap August 29 2010

IG Markets - Australian Market Wrap

Across Asia, regional markets are mixed following weaker overseas leads and ahead of tonight’s Q2 GDP read and Bernanke’s economic speech. The Nikkei 225 is the best performer, up 1% while the Hang Seng, Kospi and Shanghai composite were all hovering around the flat line.

Locally, the ASX 200 moved into positive territory in afternoon trade, closing the session 0.3% firmer at 4370.1. Consumer staples and discretionary stocks are adding most of the points, while the materials and energy sectors are still in red, although are well off their lows.

The move higher is a little bit surprising, especially considering it’s a Friday afternoon; one would usually expect selling pressure ahead of crucial economic data tonight and following weak US leads. Having said that, the market is in the red for the week, so perhaps we’re seeing some short covering.

Tonight will be crucial in determining who’s right in their argument. Will it be the bears who are calling for a double dip recession or will the bulls who are suggesting this is nothing more than a soft patch in a longer term recovery.

Once again, the consumer staples sector was one of the top performers, rising 1.1%. Woolworths and Wesfarmers continued their good form from yesterday, both adding 1.1% and 1.7% respectively. Metcash and Foster's Group both rose more than 0.2%.

Consumer discretionary names had a good session, with the sector closing 0.4% firmer. Fairfax Media was the standout, advancing 4.4% thanks to a strong result. The group reported a better-than-expected FY profit. It booked an underlying profit of $278.7 million, up 23% on year and ahead of the average forecast of $262.1 million. The dividend of 1.4 cents a share was also slightly ahead of forecasts. In a comment from Goldman Sachs, it said the focus is likely to lie on the group's outlook comments, where Fairfax tipped high single digit earnings growth for 1H FY11 vs Goldman’s forecast for FY11 net profit growth of 20.6% prior to the result.

Elsewhere, Aristocrat Leisure and Myers rose 3.8% and 3.4% while on the downside, Harvey Norman fell 0.3%.

The retailer’s shares held up quite well after the department store operator reported full-year net profit ($231.4 million) below analysts' expectations, but up 8% from a year ago ($214.4 million). The market was expecting the group to report a net profit of around $289.5 million. As for its outlook, the group said the acquisition of 29 Clive Peeters and Rick Hart branded stores in July will give a positive return in the current financial year. Management also said it has positive expectations for fiscal 2011. Whilst guidance was light, investors might be relieved the group grew the bottom line despite it being a tough year for retailers with higher interest rates, lower consumer confidence, and the absence of government stimulus that propped up spending last year.

Elsewhere, Ten Network was the biggest decliner, down 6.4%. Ten extended yesterday's slide, down another % as brokers cut their recommendations and target prices on the stock. This followed yesterday’s announcement about its plans for a new, youth-orientated digital channel and an increased focus on evening news for its main channel, Ten. In a note from Commonwealth Bank, it downgraded the stock to sell from buy, with a $1.45 price target. The broker said it expects Ten's margins will be compressed by the launch of Eleven and the new, higher cost strategy of competing with Seven and Nine in the 6-7pm news slot. In a separate report from UBS, it downgraded Ten to neutral from buy on the back of the company’s new programming strategy. UBS said earnings growth now looks challenging with significant investment planned for FY11, and describes FY11 as a reinvestment year.

The financial sector reversed earlier losses to close 0.4% higher with three of the major banks closing firmer between 0.2% and 1%. On the downside ANZ fell 0.1% while Macquarie Group and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank closed weaker by 0.8% and 3.8% respectively.

The materials sector also clawed its way back into positive territory, eventually closing 0.1% firmer despite heavyweight miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto ending lower by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Fortescue Metals managed a gain of 1.8%. Elsewhere in the sector gold miners Newcrest Mining and Lihir Gold both ended lower by more than 2% while Amcor, Sims Metals and Orica were all firmer between 2% and 5.3%.

Sims Metal this morning beat analysts’ expectations with a FY net profit of $126.7 million vs expectations of $117 million. The lack of guidance seeming isn’t worrying the market, with its shares higher by more than 6%. Sims said it saw improvements across many of its markets, but with its biggest, North America, it experienced a 21% drop in FY sales revenue, while Australasia and European sales were up modestly. Management said economic conditions are too uncertain to be able to provide specific 2011 guidance.

Ben Potter
Market Strategist
IG Markets

ENDS

Discover more about CFD trading with IG Markets, the world’s No.1 CFD provider*.

© Scoop Media