Pressing population issues focus of forums

November 24, 2014

Pressing population issues focus of forums

New Zealand urgently needs a high-level strategy on population change if the country is to avoid an array of problems ranging from regional decline to growing shortages in housing and service provision, Massey researchers say.

Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley says there hasn’t been a strategic government population policy since the 1970s and, since that time, New Zealand has undergone dramatic demographic change with an ageing population, falling birth rates and rapidly increasing immigration.

Speaking ahead of two forums on the implications of New Zealand’s latest population trends that Massey University and Westpac will host this week in Auckland and Wellington, Professor Spoonley says a new government population policy is long overdue.

“It’s more than four decades since the last major national activity focused on how we want our population to grow, and New Zealand’s population make up has changed vastly since then. It’s high time we considered our options to ensure that our changing demographics are beneficial to the future of our country.”

Professor Spoonley, who will be joined by other leading academics, economists and business commentators for the breakfast forums, says declining birth rates and the effects of an ageing population signal the end of population growth for almost everywhere except Auckland – and if the regions are to survive they must consider new options such as increased immigration flows.

Massey Vice-Chancellor Steve Maharey says the country needs to focus on taking advantage of the rapid demographic changes to drive the economy. “Twenty-first century New Zealand presents all sorts of opportunities, but we need to address the challenges now.”

Researchers for the Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi study, funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, questioned communities in Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury, West Coast and Southland about issues relating to migration and mobility to determine how people understand the population changes within their local region.

“From our research, it seems many people in the provinces do not realise the serious nature of the problems ahead. Right now, for every 100 workers there are 52 dependents, but in about a decade, many regions may have 80 dependents for every 100 workers. Some are there already.”

While some regions and industries do embrace migrants, they often struggle to retain them, he says. Last year immigration contributed more to New Zealand’s population growth than fertility, making it an important contributor to growth and helping to counter the falling birth rate, which is set to go below replacement level in the next ten years.

“Our research shows that the younger generation is much more open to immigration, and they are sending the right message to their parents and the older generations. ‘Get over yourselves and welcome migrants’.”

This attitude was prevalent in places like Wellington where the survey showed students had a lot of empathy for the challenges faced by new migrants, while Southland students suggested it was up to the migrants to take responsibility to integrate themselves into New Zealand culture.

Professor Spoonley says the consequence of not embracing immigrants in the regions could be dire in terms of service provision for the elderly.

“I hate to say it but the baby boomer population, who have been drivers of the growth generation in New Zealand over the last 50 years, could turn into a liability as they age.”

Public awareness of the issues is growing and the focus of events like this week’s new New Zealand Forums will help to elevate attention further, he says.

The new New Zealand Forums – hosted by Massey University and Westpac
Auckland: 7.30am, Tuesday November 25 at The Northern Club, 19 Princes St.
Wellington: 7.30am, Thursday November 27 at Westpac Stadium, 105 Waterloo Quay.

ENDS

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