Tanveer Jafri: Iraq - Is it under Control?

Since the time the Dictator Saddam Hussain’s rule has been uprooted and the American allies have taken control over the rule of Iraq since 2003, the internal condition of Iraq is not good. On the baseless allegations of storing weapons of mass destruction and ventilating its grievances of attack of 9/11, American army entered Iraq. But at present far the last three years, America especially Bush administration is facing hard times there. Regarding military interference of Bush administration in Iraq, not only in Iraq, but even in America it is under the pressure of heavy opposition. If majority of Iraqi population is demanding the early return of American soldiers from Iraq & isn’t in favour of staying of American soldiers there for long, then on the other side, a common American citizen too, wants to see the early return of American soldiers from Iraq. On the deteriorating condition of Iraq the war analyst are of the opinion if Iraq is not going to prove a second Vietnam for America.

After the attack of the American soldiers on Iraq, the perusal of the available data there, easily leads us to understand that in reality, this path is proving full of thorns for the Bush administration. If we talk about the military expenditure of America on Iraq, America has spent a very huge amount on Iraq war. This expenditure is far more than the estimated expenses of 50 billion dollars. An estimate regarding Iraq of 2003 had said that America has to spend 59 billion dollars, whereas in 2004 these expenses reached to 81 billion dollars. In this year i.e. 2006 this outlay is expected to reach 94 billion dollars. Analysts guess that because of weak & incomplete planning of Bush administration regarding Iraq war, the expenditure, because of modern & sophisticated weapons is likely to be trillion dollars. The outlay is roughly equal to present expending being done on the American defence in Iraq. Bush administration will also have to free a heavy outlay when there is reconstruction of Iraq and when there is payment of compensation for dead and wounded American soldiers in Iraq. Because of this huge wastage of American money in Iraq war, the new budget for Iraq war in current year does not provide any new item of expenditure. At present, because of this decision of attack, by Bush administration, 78million families of America may have to bear an additional tax burden of 1205dollor per family In spite of this large economic expenditure, the Iraq war is also going to sit an example regarding human loss. About two and half lacs people have been killed by now, in this war. In spite of complete watchfulness, cautions and modern security measures, 2380 American ally soldiers have been killed after this attack on Iraq.

During this period, the political conditions of Iraq are turning to contradiction. On one side there is a knock of civil war in Iraq and on the other side by getting the political leadership changed; American allied forces are trying to give a message that America wants an early political solution of Iraq. Because of these efforts, America has played an important role in removing Ibrahim-al-jafri the former prime minister who had been the leader of Shia associations, from prime ministership. Jawwad-Al Maliki 56 years old was chosen as new prime minister, in place of jafri. It is known that the Sunni, the Arab and the Kurdish leaders of Iraq were strongly opposing jafri and as a result of it there had been a condition of political deadlock in Iraq for the last four months. It was taken that the former Prime Minister Ibrahim-Al- jafri had not been successful in making adjustments among the Shia, Sunni, Arab and Kurd groups, or can be said that he could not attract the multitude Sunni Arabs had made direct accusation for favouring the groups against Jafri. Under the prevailing conditions the spokesman of Shia associations and the chief leader of Dawa party, which is the main Shia political association in Iraq, Jawwad-al- Maliki was chosen as their leader and got him appointed as Prime minister. Now will Maliki be able to succeed in fighting groupism, casteism and regionalism and be able to face the present explosive conditions prevailing in Iraq? It may be because seven different Shia political organizations have agreed to put their faith in him. So there is a possibility that at least, the Shia society which is in majority in Iraq and their Shia leaders will give their full support to Maliki and the shias will have positive attitude towards him.

Under the new political system in Iraq being run under the American patronage, Shia leader Jawwad-al- Maliki will be new prime minister of Iraq, where as Kurd leader Jalal Talibani will remain the president. There will be two vice presidents in Iraq as Sunni Arab leader Tariq al Hashmi and Shia leader Adil Abdul Menhdi. Sunni leader Mahmood al Mashadani has been appointed as speaker of parliament. Whereas Shia leader Khalid Al Atia and Kurd leader Aarif Taifoor has been appointed as deputy speakers. If everything is right in future and Sunni sect gives full cooperation to Government of Iraq, then it is possible that there will be an all round improvement in the condition of Iraq. Now it will depend on the policies and personality of Iraq’s newly Prime Minister Maliki that how far he will be able to win the faith of the persons opposing the outgoing Prime Minister, Jafri.

The above said political upheaval in Iraq must not be seen as mirror of Iraq. It has been the basic reality of Iraq which can be seen in the bloodshot incidents happening in daily routine. America and its allies may be denying the possibility of civil war in Iraq but in actual, circumstances are in no way satisfactory. On the average in Iraq 50 to 60 people are losing there lives due to an attack or an explosion. Former Prime Minister Eyad Alavi himself confesses that at present civil war has started in Iraq .The continuous caste based violence can be termed as civil war. Considering the day by day deteriorating condition of Iraq, Alavi says that if it is not a civil war then God knows what the civil war is. In fact separateness is spreading in Iraq and it seems possible that Iraq may not come back to its previous political condition .But America and its allies are trying to find a political solution in Iraq. Sometimes there seems a ray of hope in these efforts. In spite of all this, the destructive conditions, Iraq is face to face can not be ignored. In spite of the fresh change in leadership of Iraq it can not be said that may there be no ill omen, whether Iraq is under control or it is heading towards civil war.

(Author's Introduction)
- Writer Tanveer Jafri EMAIL-tanveerjafri58@yahoo.co.in is a columnist in India related with more than 100 most popular daily news papers/portals in india and abroad.Almost, he writes in the field of communal harmony, world peace, anti communalism, anti terrorism, national integration, national & international politics etc.He is a devoted social activist for world peace, unity, integrity & brotherhood. He is also a member of Haryana Sahitya Academy & Haryana Urdu Academy (a state govt. bodies in India). More than 1000 articles of the author have been published in different newspapers, websites & newsportals throughout the world. He is also a receipent of so many awards in the field of Communal Harmony & other social activities.

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