Stateside: Cliffs Notes for Poll Watchers

Last week, I went to see pollster Peter D. Hart present some of the results of a survey conducted by the polling organizations of Peter D. Hart and Neil Newhouse for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal from April 20 to 23, 2007. The full report is here: http://www.hartresearch.com/new/

It was hardly a big survey—done by telephone among 1,004 adults across the country—but as the week has gone by it is becoming more and more obvious how important it was. One example of its influence is the sudden media interest in who the U.S. version of “third party candidates” might be in the 2008 presidential election. Another is yesterday’s unannounced White House meeting between 11 Republicans and Bush, and Cheney’s concurrent unannounced trip to Baghdad.

And then there’s the release today of the new ad campaign featuring retired US Army generals saying that, No, the Commander in Chief does not listen to them like he keeps saying he does. You can see the Maj.Gen. Batiste video here: http://www.votevets.org/

Following are some of the notes I took at Hart’s presentation on May 3 at a public meeting at the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC Berkeley. Direct quotes are all attributed to Hart.

::On the President’s approval rating::

“When you’re below 40 percent you don’t have governance power.”
George W. Bush has been below 40 percent for over a year now, and that has happened only once before in the past 50 years—just before Nixon resigned.
Sixty-five percent of those surveyed see that low approval rating as a long-term problem.
“If we could hold a vote of no confidence, we would do it quickly and he would be gone.”

::Forces at work in the upcoming election::

According to Hart, who also pointed out that in 2005 the U.S. for the first time became a majority non-Protestant nation, there are five forces reshaping the country:
1) Immigration
2) Innovation
3) Globalization
4) Saturation—with respect to information and having to constantly filter it
5) Personalization—Generation Me
“It’s going to be a YouTube election.”

::Issues::

“This is going to be a big-issue election. I’ve never seen the big issues dominant” like this. That is, it won’t be right vs left on social/moral issues like it was in the last presidential election. But the Democratic Congress has already lost ground. While the public mood of hope was very positive coming off the 2006 elections, Congress now has an approval rating of 30 percent.

::Iraq::

“The public has reached a firm, fixed point of view on Iraq.... The latest casualty in Iraq is McCain.”
“More people are concerned that the President won’t make enough changes, rather than that Democrats will go too far.”
As bad as the figures were for Jimmy Carter in 1979, Hart had never before seen 75 percent of Americans wanting to see a different policy coming from their next president.

::The presidential primaries::

This is the first time in 35 years that such a high percentage of people are paying attention this early—75 percent.
Poll watchers should realize that nationwide primary polls are trailing indicators, not leading ones.

::Democratic presidential hopefuls::

The top three in the Democratic primary race—Clinton, Obama, Edwards--have sucked the air out for everyone else, but when questioned, the respondents said that if any of the experienced politicians such as Biden, Richardson or Dodd were vice president and the president died, they were okay with any of those three becoming president.
Obama “has galvanized the American public in a way I haven’t seen since Robert Kennedy,” but his inexperience doesn’t serve him well.
Clinton’s best chance to win is a three-way race because she’ll not get more than 45 percent of the vote in a two-way race.

::Republican presidential hopefuls::

Fred Thompson is in third place but hasn’t even announced and isn’t known by more than 45 percent of the U.S. public.
Hart predicts that primary voters will turn against Giuliani on perceptions about his family life, his meanness, and the sleaze he was involved in early in his political career. But he won’t be dragged down by the abortion issue, because he hasn’t done a flip-flop on the issue but says he’ll respect what the voters want even if it isn’t his personal belief.
“McCain looks too old.”

::Five things to watch for::

1) Breaking barriers, such as first woman, first black, first Latino.
2) The new Big Four (states that will influence the 2008 election outcome, between them having 29 electoral votes): Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona.
3) Investment vs protection—will the economy be better if we invest in education, the environment, healthcare, or if we protect our values, our safety, our trade?
4) Loyalty redefined—voters might find themselves more loyal to an individual than to a party, as Senator Lieberman’s election showed last year.
5) Transparency/authenticity.

Some further observations in response to audience questions:

::February 5, 2008::

Super-duper Tuesday “is a zoo.” But the caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, all held before that date, will be the only time that voters rather than the media matter. That’s because the two candidates emerging strongly then, will get all the media coverage.
At the present time, the election is “totally controlled by the media.”
The Internet will inject itself into all the traditional media and it will be a 24/7 campaign.

::How to do well::

Figure out what you’re going to close with in the speech you’ll use in the last two weeks, and then fit everything between now and then into it. In other words, predict what you want to look back on.
“Edwards does exceptionally well in the general election.”

::Third party candidates::

Nader isn’t a third party candidate; he’s a splinter candidate.
“I think there’ll be a serious third party candidate by May or June.”

rosalea.barker@gmail.com

--PEACE—

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