The ‘Unfortunate’ Act: The Sinking of the Cheonan

North Korea, the last hereditary communist dictatorship on earth, is keeping itself in the news. The recent act of torpedoing a South Korean vessel that left 46 sailors dead has struck the country, and regional powers, deeply. The sinking of the Cheonan in March this year was always looked upon suspiciously by South Korean officials. The recent report concluding a seven-week investigation by experts from Britain, Sweden, the United States, South Korea and Australia accused Pyongyang of the most dire act of military aggression since the end of the Korean War.

Initial reports were sketchy. As news of the event emerged, there was a suggestion that an ‘unidentified object’ fired near the western sea border that divides the two countries might well have been ‘a flock of birds’ (Reuters, Mar 26). The recent language also betrays the gingerly steps diplomats take in categorising an incident that might precipitate incalculable consequences. Calling the torpedoing an ‘act of war’ has been avoided. Modern wars are merely the sum of aggressive acts. Declarations tend to be scrupulously avoided.

Punishing states for their misdeeds is a deeply problematic thing. Those who broke the League of Nations Covenant prior to the Second World War received rebuke and sanction but rarely more than that. Nation states did not have the stomach for vigorous collective action. The UN has demonstrated occasional resolve, though a lack of initiative has encouraged powers such as the United States to act outside it when it thought best to do so. Sketchy coalitions of the willing, followed by disastrous campaigns, have been the result.

While there will be widespread condemnation of this act, there is little suggestion that there will be more than the usual diet of stern warnings and sanctions. No one is countenancing a war with a state that might have the nuclear option. This is hampered by the enigmatic leader Kim Jong Il a figure who keeps political analysts and psychoanalysts busy in their babbling. Specialists are wondering if the ‘Dear Leader’ has gradually lost the calculating touch. ‘They never used to give away anything that damaged their chances of long-term survival like this incident has,’ opined Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University (The Times, May 21). And the Security Council is hardly going to be unanimous in taking an aggressive stance. The UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon could merely call the entire event ‘troubling’, something he tends to have always been.

The Obama administration will also be very aware of not wanting to put Beijing off side after having gaining a range of concessions from them, including another round of United Nations sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program. A delegation of some 200 American officials will be travelling to China this weekend canvassing a range of issues: sanctions against Iran, climate change, and the Chinese exchange rate. The members of the group are eclectic, from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to the commander of the United States Pacific Command, Adm. Robert F. Willard (NYT, May 20). The Chinese have moved from historical support to steady ambivalence – they would rather not say anything on the subject. The most that has come out of Beijing is a description of the event as ‘unfortunate’ (The Times, May 21).

That said, the bruised South Koreans are pursuing the appropriate channels. They will no doubt refer it to the United Nations, and will receive backing from the Obama administration. Washington has already dedicated itself to unearthing the culprits behind the sinking, supplying the South Koreans with personnel from the Pacific Command under the auspices of investigating the sinking. But their involvement is also premised on a mutual defence treaty obligating them to defend the South Koreans against ‘external aggression’. After the bluster will come the sanctions. And North Korea will continue to starve.

Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com

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