Russian-American Alliance in Central Asia?

Russian-American Alliance in Central Asia?

By John Weekes

Ethnic violence and the recent escape of 25 Islamist militants in Central Asia could lead to an informal Russian-American alliance in the region, an international security analyst says.

Russia is looking to sign a deal with Kyrgyzstan that could see an influx of 25,000 Russian troops into the region - potentially Russia’s biggest deployment there in twenty years.

While the U.S. and Russia have long jockeyed for power in the volatile area, Auckland-based international relations and security expert Paul G. Buchanan says “a Russian-U.S. entente” may be the surprise outcome of Russia’s bid for influence in Central Asia.

“The Russians…view the rise of Islamic armed groups in places like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as national security threats not only to the local regimes but to Russia itself,” Buchanan says.

With America also keen to curb Taliban and Islamist influence in the area, Buchanan says a bolstered Russian military presence is “not necessarily unwelcome by the U.S.”

This marks a change in American attitudes since the overthrow of an American ally in Kyrgyzstan five months ago caused alarm in Washington.

In April, shortly after signing a deal giving the U.S. control of a major air base, then-Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev was booted from power by pro-Russian groups led by current president Roza Otunbayeva.

In June, Ms Otunbayeva declared a state of emergency after some 2,000 people were killed and 250,000 made homeless by ethnic violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbek rioters.

In late August, 25 suspected terrorists killed five guards before escaping from a prison in the neighbouring republic of Tajikistan. Fears the militants could cross into Kyrgyzstan led to border closures and security alerts.

Buchanan says the timing of these events and other security threats have renewed Russian interest in Kyrgyzstan and forced a change in its relations with the U.S.

“It is clear that the U.S. is going to begin pulling troops from Afghanistan next year. That gives urgency to the Russian plan to reassert its influence among the 'stans' because Russia is most immediately at risk from a widening Islamist offensive within them,” Buchanan says.

“It is notable that Russia is making such agreements with Kyrgyzstan just as security tensions in the countries are on the rise”, analysts at private intelligence group STRATFOR say.

STRATFOR analysts say the U.S. would be “excluded” from Central Asia by an increased Russian presence.

However, Buchanan says a reduced U.S. role in Central Asia allows America to end its “obsession” with the Middle East and Central Asia and focus attention elsewhere.

“Although the nation-building exercise in Afghanistan is a failure, the strategic objective of disrupting and dismantling Al Qaeda networks operating in Afghanistan and the Middle East has largely been accomplished and the war against extremism has moved elsewhere,” he says.

Buchanan says the U.S will tolerate Russian expansion in the region, perhaps in exchange for Russian cooperation “on issues such as the Iranian nuclear programme.”

Yesterday, senior U.S. State Department official Robert Blake hinted at improved U.S. – Russian relations and expressed hope that Kyrgyz elections scheduled for October 10 could create “the very first parliamentary democracy in Central Asia.”

STRATFOR says it has received information from Russian sources who claim the Kremlin plans to redeploy up to 25,000 troops from the Caucasus into Central Asia by early 2011.

ENDS

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