Poll: Byelection Defeat Bounces off Teflon "John Key" & Govt

Thursday, 23 April 2015, 11:07 am
Article: Alastair Thompson

VIDEO: Has a message been sent to the Government by the people of Northland? Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine & Scoop Editor Alastair Thompson discuss the latest Roy Morgan Research poll results which show National has barely been touched in the polls by the worst by-election defeat of a sitting Government in a generation.

New Zealand First appears to have received a boost in nationwide polling following Winston Peters by-election victory in Northland.

The latest Roy Morgan poll has NZ First up 2.5 percentage points to 8.5% support, while National dip one point to 45.5%.

Labour have fared slightly worse shedding 3.5 points to 27.5%. It appears Labour’s decision to hand John Key his first real political bloody nose by not contesting Northland may have been tactically wise locally. However in the wider strategic battle nationwide it has moved voters’ attention from Labour to NZ First as a vehicle for soft/disenchanted National voters to move to.

The Greens have received another post-election boost up 2.5 points to 13.5%, which is remarkably similar to polling prior to the last election.

Key’s coalition partners the Maori Party dropped to 1.5% (down 0.5%), while ACT 1% and United Future on 0% were unchanged.

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party is 1% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 0.5%).

If the poll translated into an election result it would be a knife edge result, but depending on electorate results would almost certainly put Winston Peters in the position of kingmaker, deciding between National or Labour, the Greens and potentially others.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 888 electors from April 6-19, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Green Party Reaction:

“While it is just one poll it does suggests that the tide is turning on National, and an increasing number of New Zealanders are looking to other parties to show leadership on the issues they care about,” said Green Party Co-leader Metiria Turei.

“National has lost touch with the real lives of New Zealanders. That has been evidenced by their Northland by-election loss, their refusal to do anything to about the Auckland housing crisis and their voting down of legislation that would have fed hungry children at school.

“Changing the Government in 2017 is entirely possible, and more and more Kiwis are wanting a Government that reflects their higher hopes for our future rather than Nationals stale and out of touch offerings.”

Labour Deputy Leader Annette King Reaction:

“This is just one poll and is inconsistent with all others which show Labour gaining steady support since Andrew Little became leader. We are at the beginning of the electoral cycle and here for the long-haul.”

Click for big version
Party Vote Graph To April 19th 2015

Click for big version
Right Track Wrong Track - Confidence Graph

******* Press Release Extract Follows *******

Potential Labour/Greens/NZ First Coalition (49.5%) leads National-led Government (48%) for first time since 2014 Election following National defeat in Northland by-election

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/Greens/NZ First Coalition 49.5% (up 1.5% since March) leading the National-led Government 48% (down 1.5%) for the first time since last year’s New Zealand Election according to today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand April poll.

Support for National has dropped to 45.5% (down 1%) and support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners the Maori Party has dropped to 1.5% (down 0.5%). Support for Key’s other two Coalition partners is unchanged: Act NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future is still on 0% (unchanged).

However, despite the rise in support for the Opposition on the whole, Labour’s decision to advise Labour supporters to vote for NZ First Leader Winston Peters in the Northland by-election appears to have dented Labour support – now at 27.5% (down 3.5%). In contrast, support has increased strongly for both the Greens 13.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 8.5% (up 2.5%).

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135pts (down 5.5pts). There are now 62% (down 2.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 27% (up 3%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is still substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 88.5pts.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 888 electors from April 6-19, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

ENDS

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Alastair Thompson

Scoop Publisher

Alastair Thompson is the co-founder of Scoop. He is of Scottish and Irish extraction and from Wellington, New Zealand. Alastair has 24 years experience in the media, at the Dominion, National Business Review, North & South magazine, Straight Furrow newspaper and online since 1997. He is the winner of several journalism awards for business and investigative work.

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