National Family and Household Projections: 2001(base)-2021 Update

1 June 2005

Family and Household Growth Projected to Exceed Population Growth

The numbers of families and households in New Zealand are projected to increase by 24 percent and 28 percent, respectively, between 2001 and 2021, according to updated 2001-base national family and household projections released by Statistics New Zealand today. This exceeds projected population growth of 18 percent over the same period.

The faster growth in the number of families and households is due to the ageing of New Zealand's population, leading to an increasing proportion of couple without children families and one-person households. These figures are from mid-range series 5B, one of nine different projection series used to indicate the likely future number and type of New Zealand's families and households.

The number of families is projected to increase from an estimated 1.05 million in 2001 to 1.30 million in 2021. Couple without children families will account for the majority of this growth, up from 407,000 in 2001 to 623,000 in 2021.

The increasing prevalence of couple without children families is mainly due to the large number of people born after World War II reaching ages 50 years and over, where they are most likely to live as a partner in a couple without children family. Most of these couples will have had children who have left the parental home. Couple without children families will overtake two-parent families to become the most common family type in 2006.

The number of households is projected to increase from 1.44 million in 2001 to 1.84 million in 2021. Households containing one or two people are projected to account for nearly all of this growth.

The number of one-person households will increase from 333,000 in 2001 to 488,000 in 2021, largely because of the increasing number of people at older ages. The number of two-person households will increase from 489,000 in 2001 to 719,000 in 2021, mainly due to the increasing numbers of couple without children families and one-parent families.

Brian Pink

Government Statistician

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