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National Dominates the Election Race on iPredict

The National Party continues to lead the election race with an 80% likelihood of winning, say traders on iPredict.

"National saw strong trading during the final leaders’ debate last night. This week has been a decisive win for them with their stock increasing by eight percent in five days," says iPredict CEO Matt Burgess.
Labour's chances of a fourth term fell from 28% to just above 20% during the week.

"Crucial moments for the major parties this week were new allegations against Winston Peters on the weekend, which hurt Labour trading, and a win for National in the third leaders' debate on Thursday night."
Minor party influence is being reflected online with traders giving the Maori Party a 65% chance of either supporting National on Confidence and Supply or agreeing to abstain – if National leads the next government.

Contracts on iPredict pay $1 each if a defined event comes true and the prices that these contracts trade for is the prediction. For example, contract PM.NATIONAL, which pays $1 if National leads the next government, is trading at $0.80, which can be interpreted as a 80% likelihood at a given time of Labour winning the election.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation. It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education.

Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.

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