Q+A’s Guyon Espiner Interviewed John Key In Afghanistan Last Weekend

Points of interest:

- SAS is working alongside the elite Afghani Crisis Response Unit in Kabul, in place of Norwegian troops

- It has been “at the forefront of foiling a number of major plots, a number of major insurgent actions”

- PM doesn’t expect a big reduction in international troops next year despite US plans to being withdrawal next July: “It’s going to take a bit longer than they think”

- “It’s very difficult to know if we’re winning” in Afghanistan

- International troops fighting three wars: against insurgents, the drugs trade and corruption

- Corruption is endemic in Afghani culture

- On Hamid Karzai: “I don’t think he is personally corrupt”
- Americans right to switch focus to “hearts and minds”, not “measure success in bodybags”

The interview has been transcribed below. The full length video interviews and panel discussions from this morning’s Q+A can also be seen on tvnz.co.nz at, http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news

Q+A is repeated on TVNZ 7 at 9.10pm on Sunday nights and 10.10am and 2.10pm on Mondays.

JOHN KEY interviewed by GUYON ESPINER in Afghanistan

Key: Certainly history tells you this is a very difficult country to win a war in. I guess the question is are we making progress. Well people who have been here when the Taleban were here and now the time of the coalition forces the last 8 or 9 years would say progress is being made in certain parts. You've got women going to school, you've got commerce starting to bubble away, you've got the development of infrastructure in the country, but yeah you're right to say it's very very difficult to know whether we're winning and making progress. And I think that's in a way because you've got three kind of wars going on here. A war on drugs, a war on insurgency, a war on corruption. You've got complex and deeply sort of historical tribal factions and you've also got a Taleban that die for the cause and that's difficult.

Guyon: And won't they always be willing to die for a cause when there are foreign occupying troops in that country isn't it ultimately the solution to withdraw?

Key: Well I think the big point that General McChrystal is making is that we're not seen as occupiers of Afghanistan. We are people that are here to stabilise Afghanistan, put in a democratic government and leave. So in that regard, as long as they don't believe us that we are long term people that are going to stay here, that helps. The second thing is comes back to that point. You have to and that is why I think that the Americans rightfully have changed tack. In the early days when the success in Afghanistan was measured in body bags and the number of people that were killed in the Taleban, it's now being measured by whether we can win the hearts and minds of those insurgents.

Guyon: So is that an acknowledgment or an observation from you that their previous strategy was wrong? That was a 7 or 8 year strategy

Key: I think that'd be an observation from them that it wasn't working actually, and the reason being that if you go back to those numbers, a hundred and thirty odd thousand Coalition forces, I mean billions and billions of dollars being spent. I mean the military capability that we just saw on the ground in Kabul is mind blowing in it's own right, and you say well we're really fighting 15 to 20 thousand people but it's the way that that fighting is taking place. Now what we know is that if the Taleban are killed and the moderate Taleban are killed, their brothers, their friends will come in and you'll probably never get on top of the situation so I think the changing strategy is the right one and we support it.

Guyon: So is a moderate Taleban an acceptable...

Key: Well, I guess the question why are people joining the Taleban. Some people are joining because they didn't believe that the government was going to support them, they didn't believe they were going to be there, they think the coalition forces will pull out, and eventually they will be left on their own and then the Taleban will come back. This is the year we'll know, this is the transition year. By the end of this year I think we'll have a sense of whether fundamentally we're getting on top of it or we're not.

Guyon: Can I turn to the domestic situation in terms of governance here. Now you met President Karzai. Your opposition leader in New Zealand, Phil Goff says he's running a corrupt Government. Do you think that President Karzai is corrupt?

Key: I don't think he personally is corrupt. Um, but look you know there's a...

Guyon: What do you base that on?

Key: That's the point. How can you base that. The general advise that we have had has been that he is the best person for the job.

Guyon: Perhaps not perfect.

Key: I don't think anyone's perfect for this job, maybe they'll find that person someone some day. It's very hard to know. As I said the corruption is actually endemic in the culture here. You see it in the local government level, you see it in the police force it's rife.

Guyon: So people buy off guards so that their families and relatives can commit terrorist attacks, that sort of thing happening?

Key: Well that's what we're told, and we're told. If you think about what the strategy is here. It's to build up the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police. Over 300,00 Afghans so that control can be passed to them to keep stability and safety and security and the coalition forces can leave, and that corruption has been in the police force and they are getting on top of it but there's been a long history of it.

Guyon: What is your mind set? 3 to 5 years before the Afghan forces and police and army can actually manage and secure their own affairs?

Key: I don't have a lot to base this on but my own personal view is that it's unlikely you'll see a reduction in coalition forces outside of countries which simply say our time is up and we're leaving I don't think you will see a big reduction in 2011. i think you will start to see them tapering of in 2012, you will see people coming out, but it's going to take bit longer than people think. What will be the test will be is the real hotspots, you know Kandahar and the likes in the south, Helmand, are they starting to see a reduction in insurgency, are they starting to see less people being killed both on the Afghan side and actually on the Coalition side.

Guyon: Which I guess raises the point, why didn't we send our SAS, our elite combat force into Kandahar or Helmand province where a lot of the real fighting is rather than having them stationed in Kabul?

Key: Yeah, well that is because we replaced the Norwegians who'd been here and been a very effective unit working alongside the Crisis Response Unit which is again an Afghan force, a very elite Afghan force, and if you look at what's been happening, Kabul is no picnic. I mean Kabul itself is quite a high intensity zone and the New Zealanders have been at the forefront actually of foiling a number of major plots there, a number of major insurgent actions that would have taken place, so they're not only capable there, it's just that's the place that they went to. Now, building up that capability, that Crisis Response unit again is critical.

Guyon: And you did tell us that you were considering extending their deployment, I mean how serious are you about having the SAS present beyond March next year.

Key: Well it's a possibility, you know we had originally always been of the view that they would do 3 rotations come back in March and that would be it and they'd need to regroup and largely, that's correct. I mean, they are an elite force, they are not large in number. It takes an awful lot out of them being stationed here in these 6 month deployments in Afghanistan, so largely they are going to come home. Is it possible that a small group, 20 or 25 could stay? That's their preference, because they know what they're doing with the Crisis Response Unit, they know how much progress they're being made. I think they'd hate to see all of that work go backwards, but that's ultimately a decision that the cabinet will have to make and I haven't had any discussions with my fellow ministers about that.

Guyon: Can I just ask you, I guess the elephant in the room in terms of causal effects of all of this. What role do you see the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as playing a part in inflaming and continuing this whole situation here in Afghanistan?

Key: Well I think you can't get away from the fact that the Middle East is the area in the world where conflict or potential conflict is both obvious and you can't rule out it's potential impact on the world.

Guyon: I guess I'm asking do we have solve that before we can solve this?

Key: Well in a way I would say to you, one job at a time. I mean we really do have to try and resolve what's happening here in Afghanistan. This is a country surrounded by a while lot of other countries you know which of themselves have challenges. I mean, Pakistan to the North and there's a lot of issues here.

ENDS

© Scoop Media