Sunday 17th July, 2011

Q+A Panel Discussions.

The Panel Discussions have been transcribed below. The full length video interviews and panel discussions from this morning’s Q+A can be watched on tvnz.co.nz at, http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news

Q+A, 9-10am Sundays on TV ONE. Repeats at 9.10pm Sundays, 10.10am and 2.10pm Mondays on TVNZ 7

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PANEL DISCUSSIONS moderated by PAUL HOLMES

In response to ROSS WESTGATE interview

PAUL Welcome back to the programme. Time to welcome the panel this morning. We have Dr Claire Robinson from Massey University, which is, uh, very nice to have you here, Claire, again. And we also welcome Gareth Morgan, uh, chief executive of Gareth Morgan Investments, columnist and author, world traveller, and Mike Williams, former Labour Party President. How worried are you when you hear about this massive debt crisis in Europe spreading to Italy – the seventh largest economy in the world – too big, probably, to save, and the American debt crisis as well. How worrying is it, Gareth?

GARETH MORGAN – Gareth Morgan Investments
Well, I mean, it’s worrying for investors. Um, it’s not the end of the world or anything. I mean, there will be shocks out at this. With respect to Europe, I think what we’re seeing is, um, a transition and the break-down of the Euro. I mean, it’s just a matter of time, you know, lumbering along. They’re all in denial. Um, but the only way for those countries, really, to clear the decks is to free themselves of the Euro, let the currencies go down.

PAUL They’ve gotta be able to act unilaterally?

GARETH Yeah, they do. I mean, the whole thing about the Euro was, you know, ‘If anybody’s gonna have a 3% deficit of more, we’re gonna fine you.’ Well, there’s only one country in the whole blimmin’ block that’s got a deficit that’s less than 3%, and that’s Germany So they’ve all—The thing’s failed.

PAUL Does it vindicate Maggie Thatcher staying out of the Euro?

GARETH Yeah, I think it does. But, I mean, it could lumber on, though, for, you know, even another, I don’t know, five years, Paul. But I think what you’ll get is a north and south. You’ll get the weaklings – off you go – and the north guys just keeps on.

CLAIRE ROBINSON – Political Analyst
It will lumber on because it’s a political thing, and governments take a long time to make any decisions. And there’s lots of officials involved, lots of political parties involved. Nobody can agree because, I think, it’s such a back-down if they have to back out of the Euro,

PAUL This was all supposed to be finished, wasn’t it?

MIKE WILLIAMS – Former Labour Party President
You would’ve thought so, but what you’re getting at the moment, of course, is that the cost of the Euro was a lack of economic sovereignty, and Gareth’s quite right. These countries, like Greece, to get out of this, will have to claim that economic sovereignty back.

GARETH And actually, we’re gonna have fiscal government, the same thing Mike’s saying, consolidation, and that was actually one of the solutions he said. You know, if they can go forward – one treasury, you know.

CLAIRE But they have to give up an enormous amount to be able to do that.

***

In response to the DAVID CUNLIFFE interview

PAUL In the meantime, so we’re looking at a massive, you know, trillions of dollars debt crisis, and then Mr Cunliffe was talking about, what, borrowing between his election and 2018 -- $2 billion. The capital gains tax, Gareth. I mean, how does it sound?

GARETH Well, the irony – let’s just deal with the borrowing. The irony of the borrowing is that as a result of these currency wars, it sort of goes to the bottom. The US is trying to get their currency down, the Euro’s getting pounded, you know, and there’s little innocents on the sideline. Australia and New Zealand – we keep going one way, you know. It’d be parity, soon, with the US dollar. I mean, seriously, we’re talking about 90c. Um, you know, should we be positioning? Who would have believed that this blimmin currency was 50c, you know, not long ago, so it’s actually quite serious. But the irony of that is they think we’re the bee’s knees, and so I think you’d be able to get that money relatively cheaply. I mean, interest rates around the world are pretty well zero, and we’re in favour. Our biggest exposure is the same as Canada’s, same as, um, Australia – if China goes. If China goes over, and it’s got very big inflation at the moment – 60% of the household budget spent on food – you know, that’s starting to cause riots – then we’re in the doo-dahs. But up until then, we’re, you know, the bee’s knees.

PAUL Capital Gains tax, Michael – is it gonna work?

MIKE I don’t know whether it will work, but what I will say is I think that is far and away the best policy launch I’ve ever seen. Um, I’ve been involved in politics in Australia and New Zealand for over 30 years, and it went absolutely like clockwork, and, of course, um, the great benefit to the Labour Party is that the National Party was caught with its pants down, thoroughly, um, totally wrong-footed, and came up with all sorts of weird arguments. I mean, it’s been a very good, um, week for Labour.

PAUL Maybe so, but did it matter if National got caught with their pants down? Because does anyone really care about this tax?

CLAIRE Well, these are the interesting things. People have been saying, ‘Is it a game-changer?’ And on the one hand, it’s very good for Labour because I think a lot of people have been saying Labour lacks vision, Labour lacks a plan, and we finally got a plan. And the launch made it look like they actually are coordinated, where they haven’t looked particularly coordinated over the last few years. And so for Labour voters, they’re gonna feel much more confident about voting Labour and not necessarily thinking that they might, uh, shift their vote off to the Greens. Is it—On the other hand, is it going to make a difference to people who already think they’re going to vote National? No. It’s too late for that. They needed to be introducing this at least a year ago for people to really believe that they’re committed and that this isn’t just a one-week phenomenon and it’s really gonna make Labour much more electable.

MIKE But I think Claire is actually wrong about this, and I think I can demonstrate. There’s a, um, an online poll in the Herald, um, which is actually quite conservative in what it actually finds. And I looked at that yesterday and it said, ‘Is Labour’s stance on capital gains tax causing you to review how you’re going to vote?’ 32% said yes, and that is the effect that Labour wants.

PAUL Yeah, but all that means is your Party president is getting busy online, Michael.

CLAIRE But I think nobody’s denying that National Party voters actually—many of them will think that a capital gains tax is a good idea, but the question is, is it enough to shift the vote, and at this stage, it’s not, because a lot of those reasonably conservative voters – they make a voting decision much earlier now.

MIKE But there’s a piece of evidence that said a third or people are considering changing their vote.

CLAIRE But in terms of the way voters behave, they will look around – well, they need to. But in terms of where they actually... deep down and where they’re predisposed, they’re not gonna change.

PAUL But can I say, the thing about what Claire is saying is that... It was a very flash launch. It was lovely. Good to see decisive people and so forth and Labour coming up with a good idea and so forth, or a bad—an idea, as least. But was it a visceral idea? Do you know what I mean? Did it grab people in their guts?

MIKE There’s a different way of looking at it. One of the first things Phil Goff has got to do is get back the 200,000 Labour voters who did not vote last time. Now, those are typically in the safe Labour seats. They tend to be low-income people. Now, you’re starting to add this up – 10 bucks a week as your tax cut, 7 bucks a week, taking GST off fresh fruit and vegetables. Add that – move the minimum wage to $15 – you’re talking about some of these people getting up to 100 bucks a week by coming back and voting Labour.

PAUL Right. Quick question, Gareth Morgan. Your problem with the capital gains tax – you approve of the capital gains tax, but you don’t like this because of too many exemptions, too many gaps?

GARETH Well, he’s put a lot of holes in there, but I think Labour’s definitely gotta be congratulated for putting the issue of taxing capital on the table. It’s so overdue in New Zealand. You know, we do tax some capital income, but we don’t tax it all, and that produces massive inequities. And the biggest taxpayers in New Zealand are those on the highest wages. Now, for God’s sake, you know, if you’re doing anything on vertical equity, you know, from each according to their means, it should be those with the highest wealth pool and actually pay the more tax. I mean, this is not rocket science. And they don’t do that here.

PAUL Those with the highest income. Mm.

GARETH Yeah, the income’s only one part of the increment of my wealth each year.

***

In response to the LITTLE/NICHOLSON interview


PAUL Are these two examples of very, you know, good, fresh talent coming on to the lists, Claire Robinson?

CLAIRE Oh, absolutely. But I think the big challenge for these guys is that they’ve been leaders of quite large organisations, and when they come into Parliament, they’re going to be very small fish in a very large sea, and it’s gonna be quite difficult for them. I think we’ve seen that in the past when people in these positions come in, so for people like Andrew Little, it’s gonna take a long while for him to climb the slope to something senior.

PAUL How do these people generally adapt to coming into a caucus at the bottom end?

MIKE Generally not well, I’d have to say, because you stop being the head boy and suddenly you’re a third former. But I think Andrew Little’s probably an exception to that rule.

PAUL Or in the case of maybe the head girl and you come in.

MIKE Exactly. Andrew Little, I think, can adapt. I mean, his position as head of the Engineer’s Union was democratically elected, anyhow, so he’s used to that. And he’s got good intellectual horsepower going on there, as you found out, talking to him.

PAUL Mm. Mm. And Mr Nicholson?

GARETH Well, I mean, he’ll have a lot of power cos there’s not many of them.

(ALL LAUGH)

PAUL What do you make of this – was Damien O’Connor right, you know, when he said, ‘This is a gaggle of gays and self-serving unionists,’ or as Mike Moore once said, the front bench Labour Party looks like the Village People. Claire.

CLAIRE Well, I think this is the great thing about MMP, though, that it has enabled a huge variety of people to actually come into Parliament and regardless of their sex, gender, um, sexual preference. I mean, it’s actually a much broader church than it’s ever been before. It’s good.

PAUL Is Phil Goff gonna be keeping a watch on Andrew Little?

MIKE Oh, not till after the election. It all hangs on what happens in the election. I think Goff probably earned himself quite a few bully points this week with his own caucus. Um, just wait and see.

PAUL Labour planning, Gareth, to bring the ETS in a couple of years early for the farmers, uh, in order to get this $800 million R&D fund, seeding capital, whatever. Is that the right thing to do?

GARETH Oh, I think so. I mean, I had a whole group of farmers in my office the week before last, and they’re basically saying, you know, ‘We shouldn’t be in it. We don’t make any net emissions.’ And I said, ‘Well, that’s great! Now just show me the evidence.’ And that’s where it sort of stops. And, I mean, they’ve had a hell of a good ride till now by being kept out. I mean, they have to come in. They’re such a big... So unless they can prove that they’re irrelevant to it, which they’re not, um, then they’ve just gotta swallow hard and get in there.

PAUL Am I right about ACT being seen as a bit all over the show at the moment, Claire?

CLAIRE ACT feels like it’s imploding, actually, Paul. I think it’s, um, they’re completely all over the show. They don’t really know what they’re standing for at the moment. I think bringing somebody like Don Nicholson in suggests that they’re trying to go back to their core values about a neo-liberal economic policy, but at the same time, they’re going out, and, yeah, doing the Maori-bashing, the women-bashing. You know, they’re never gonna get great female candidates or even women to vote for them if they keep alienating women the way they do.

PAUL He speaks about opening up the south, doesn’t he, Nicholson?

CLAIRE Well, that’s because that’s where he’s from. But I think maybe there are— There’s a good number of people who are quite conservative National-leaning voters in the south, so they could be persuaded to go ACT. But why would they? I think, why would you support the party that is so completely over the show at the moment?

PAUL Well, that’s it, isn’t it? The people who put their party vote to ACT in the last election may not do it this time.

CLAIRE No, and fewer and fewer have been doing it. I mean, Don Brash... (CHUCKLES) is trying to get to 15%. My God, they’ll be lucky if they get to 3.

MIKE Yeah, it could well turn into a Peter Dunne Party, you know, just one MP.

CLAIRE Absolutely. Yeah, definitely.

PAUL I was going to ask you, Michael, what are Andrew Little’s chances in New Plymouth?

MIKE I think it’s actually a hard ask, and I’ll tell you why. On paper, I think the majority for Jonathan Young’s about 104 or something like that. I stand to be corrected, but it’s very low. However, that reflects a victory over a very locally popular MP, Harry Duynhoven. And I think Harry actually held on a lot better than, uh, and exaggerates that majority. And Harry, of course, went on to be mayor of New Plymouth. That’s on the downside. On the upside, Andrew is a very very talented organiser, and the New Plymouth Labour Party – there wasn’t much to it when I was president, apart from a pile of money. Andrew’s got people around there working for him, and, of course, he starts with roughly 1000 members of the EPMU in that seat.

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