Rt. Hon Winston Peters
Leader NZ First

Address to: Seminar: Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
Diplomatic Academy

Venue: Press Room
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Tanglin, Singapore

Date: 12 September 2011

Time: 2.30 pm – 4 pm

It’s a privilege to have been invited here by the Singaporean Government, a sentiment enhanced by a long held personal respect for the outstanding success of Singapore’s economy and its people.

Thank you also for the opportunity to speak to you today and give you a New Zealand perspective on the Asia-Pacific Region in the era of transition and uncertainty.

This is a personal view and does not purport to be speaking on behalf of the New Zealand Government in any way.

It aims to set out some of the features of Asia-Pacific landscape, as seen from New Zealand, that seem to have particular salience.

New Zealand’s interest in the Region

Let us start by making one thing clear.
Inevitably, New Zealand puts great emphasis in its international relations on the Pacific Island States of the South Pacific and that is where we direct most of our developmental assistance because of the wide range of links that connect us to that area.

However, if New Zealand can be said to have one overriding and primary interest it is in the security and stability of the Asia - Pacific region.
That interest trumps all others – and will continue to do.

And that is the reason why New Zealand engages with the Asia-Pacific region on a wide array of issues including security, economic co-operation and integration, disaster response and development aid.
It is why NZ aims to play a constructive role, within its limited capacity, in regional cooperative agencies and organisations. As a small state New Zealand is under no illusions – we have everything to gain from an international order that is based around rules and norms rather than brute force.
From a New Zealand perspective one obvious point that needs to be made in relation to the region concerns the disparity in size between nations.

When New Zealand looks out to the Asia-Pacific region we are among giants!

As well as China and the United States many other nations have great populations, for example, Japan with 127 million people and Indonesia 240 million people.

In contrast, in the South Pacific island nations populations are of a different order. New Zealand has a population equivalent to Melbourne but within our immediate area of interest we are the larger power in comparison with smaller neighbours such as Samoa, Fiji and Tonga.

It is not disrespectful to either New Zealand or our immediate neighbours but demographically the South Pacific island nations are a ‘drop in the ocean.’

They are, however, also sovereign nations with a special set of concerns and interests.

And that is an important contrast to bear in mind because in New Zealand we can sometimes fail to appreciate the magnitude, the scale and the scope of the challenges that our friends in the larger Asia Pacific nations are faced with.

The disparity in size and capability between regional states is a reality and we have to live with that. But regional co-operation is a way of giving smaller states a voice that they would not otherwise have in an increasingly crowded world.

The Pacific Forum is a good example of a mechanism that allows even very small states to be recognised and heard.

It is significant that China and the United States both had a presence on the sidelines of the Pacific Forum in Auckland last week – and indeed that the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon attended the Forum.

While the South Pacific is not typically regarded as a global tension spot the Secretary General took the opportunity to warn of economic and social instability in the Pacific Island region if nothing is done to address the risks posed by climate change.

For New Zealand, the central issue comes down to how a small state can survive and thrive amidst all the disparate and unpredictable forces of globalisation that are in play in the region.

Centre of Gravity

A distant observer of planet earth in 2011, and particularly its media, might have concluded that the global centre of gravity lay in Europe or North America or even the Mediterranean.

This has been a year dominated by the so called Arab Spring, the Euro Zone crisis and the ongoing repercussions of the global financial crisis.

These are all significant global developments but they cannot mask the fact that the Asia-Pacific region is the global centre of gravity in the emerging world.

All the indications therefore point to the twenty-first century as the Asia-Pacific century.

Already the 21 APEC countries include the world's three largest economies - the United States, China and Japan.

So generally, it is accepted that the Asia and the Pacific region will be the areas of greatest economic growth in the coming decades.

They say that demography is destiny but perhaps geography is fate. And in that regard it may be a fortunate accident of fate for New Zealand that we are well located for a world where the Asia-Pacific region will be paramount in terms of political and economic significance.

They also say that Australia is the ‘Lucky Country.’ We would say New Zealand is lucky too as we have access to the opportunities that stem from being on the edge of the Asia Pacific region.

New Zealand was the first developed nation to conclude a free trade deal with China. And it is an undoubted fact that New Zealand’s exports to China have grown rapidly since that Free Trade Agreement was signed.

That rapid growth in exports to China also occurred from Australia without a Free Trade Agreement which highlights the attraction of different products China now needs.

While New Zealand’s future is bound up with the region it is the case that we have a heritage deeply rooted in Europe and its culture and traditions. That is a rich heritage to tap.

There is a diverse range of constitutions and Government structures in the region.

The example that New Zealand and Australia provides of effective Parliamentary democracies is a contribution to the region.
.
While we do not set out to proselytize, the strong democracies of Australia and New Zealand provide a model that other countries can look to and maybe draw upon.
Shifts in Global Power
In New Zealand we can conceive the Asia-Pacific region as an arena – an amphitheatre - where great political and economic forces intersect and interact

And in New Zealand, while we do not control events, we are privileged to have a ringside seat to the drama!

In terms of the ‘big picture’ what we see is one global power waning and another rising.

For both China and the United States the pendulum is swinging!

And for a snapshot of their fluctuating fortunes one only needs to compare the economic growth rates of the United States and China in recent years.

If there is one word that characterises China’s place in the region – and indeed the world it is – ascendancy.

And China’s ascendancy is now an absolutely pervasive aspect of the region’s future.

In contrast, since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis there has been a palpable sense of United States decline.

Future historians will no doubt reflect on the irony of why and how the United States was engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan even while it recognised the future importance of the Asia-Pacific region. Did this represent a massive mistake of its focus and priority?

These same historians will also need to explain those elements of America’s economic environment which led to such drastic economic dysfunction.

Certain events cause historical sea changes. The USA response to the September 11 attacks a decade ago is a case in point. Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz view that it compromised America’s basic principles, undermined its economy, and weakened its security is hard to disagree with.

All this occurred whilst China’s growing political and economic influence in the region heralded a development with profound consequences in all sorts of areas including political, economic and military.

That said, what is very encouraging for New Zealand is that despite their differences and rivalry, China and the United States are fully cognisant of the central importance of their bilateral relationship.

In that connection, China and the United States agreed earlier this year to establish a bilateral consultation mechanism for the Asia-Pacific region as an area where they both have major interests.

This positive action came after some occasions of tension and friction became evident that could have damaged bilateral ties.

We welcome that initiative and it has to be said that the two Super Powers are demonstrating a maturity and responsibility in their crucial bi-lateral relationship that we could all try and emulate on a smaller scale.

As an aside the relationship between lender and borrower is never an easy one but the presence of so much Chinese savings in the US economy inevitably must affect US political shifts.

Inevitably, China’s economic power will be reflected in its military capabilities – and its military assets are already very formidable. That is just another dimension of its status as a great power.

Without wanting to make too much of it, it is noteworthy that China has just completed trials of its first aircraft carrier. This is just one aspect of China’s sustained and wide-ranging build up of its military capability.

Of course one aircraft carrier does not make China any match for the United States Navy but it is a milestone – and everyone knows it. It is sign of things to come.

It is pointless to speculate on precisely how and when shifts in the balance of power will occur and how they will be manifest.

China is indisputably a great power now – with its history, culture and capability, energy and enterprise it is rightly taking its place at the centre of the world stage.

Overall that is a very positive development.

But what we would like to see in New Zealand is that, along with its power and prestige, China also fully assumes the leadership role that goes with being a great power.

It is a truism that with great power there is an associated great responsibility.

There are evolving indications that China is preparing to discharge that responsibility.

Let us put it this way - none of the challenges facing the region – and indeed the planet for that matter - are going to be resolved without China playing a leading role.

Think of the big issues:

• Climate change

• Population pressures

• Food and water shortages

• Energy supply shortages

• Pollution and environmental degradation

• Institutional Corruption

What stands out in any such list is just how inter-related they all are.

Will any significant progress be made on these issues unless China plays a key role? Most people would say the answer is no.

As China has demonstrated when it decides to tackle a problem – however major – it brings a determination – a focus – an energy to the issue that is remarkable and awesome.

In the twenty-first century, given that so many of the challenges we face are global in scope even a Super Power cannot escape their impact.

China’s ascendancy would be a pyrrhic victory if, for example, global warming went unchecked. What is the value of being ascendant over a waste land?

Add to this the one economy all too frequently overlooked in such a discussion. That of India, ticking along with growth of 7.5%, economic and political developments there are extremely important to the region.

India has much in common with China which will become more clear as the immediate future unfolds.

Institutional Structures

There is a wide range of institutional structures that support regional co-operation. Clearly the region needs an array of effective international agencies and mechanisms to deal with conflicts, challenges and issues.

So, for example, we have ASEAN, APEC and the East Asia Summit – and closer to home the Pacific Forum.

What can be said on this topic is that while the institutions exist – their effectiveness is sometimes debatable. Some of these structures have been around for quite a while. ASEAN dates from 1967. APEC was established 1989 – and the Pacific Forum held its fortieth anniversary meeting in Auckland in September of this year.

In a time of discontinuity and uncertainty it is particularly important for agencies to stay relevant. Institutions that are established and designed to implement the ‘rules of the game’ are of limited value when the game is changing rapidly!

Are they operating to an outdated mandate or definition of purpose or can they bring innovation and fresh thinking to tackling current issues?

The question all international agencies face is one of relevance. The digital revolution, Face Book, Twitter and the other social media seem to be changing the rules of the game in new and unpredictable ways.

And just how relevant is traditional diplomacy in a world where a Tunisian street vender sparked the so called Arab Spring by setting himself alight?

Conclusion

From a New Zealand perspective the concept of an Asia-Pacific regional community is a valuable and meaningful one.

Standing in 2011 it is impossible to say with any certainty how the future for the Asia-Pacific region will unfold. It is has become a cliché but it is the case that we are going through a period of radical transition in global power.

The uncertainties abound. And there is potential for territorial and political disputes and conflicts to escalate as populations and resource pressures build.
It would be a mistake to become complacent in the light of the relative peace the region has enjoyed over the past forty years, and which has underpinned its economic growth and rising prosperity.

New Zealand certainly has a strong interest in seeing any disputes being resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law.

But there is cause to be optimistic about the future of the region. The source of optimism for the region is that even the major nations have much to gain by regional stability and progress and a lot to lose if that is undermined.

As stated at the outset of this talk no other region is as important to New Zealand as Asia-Pacific – we take our commitment to the region seriously.

Whatever our differences one thing is certain.
All of us are stakeholders in the stability and prosperity of the region.

ENDS

© Scoop Media