iPredict Ltd
2011 Daily Election Update #2
15 November 2011
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
www.ipredict.co.nz

Main Movers

* The probability that National's Nikki Kaye will beat Labour's Jacinda Ardern and retain Auckland Central has reached 83%
* Phil Goff has a 61% probability of suffering a lower majority in his Mt Roskill electorate than he did in the 2008 General Election
* There has been heavy trading and increasing prices for incumbents in stocks for "safe seats" across the country, as investors anticipate a quick return with the election in 11 days

The Parties

National 47.0% n/c 60 MPs
Labour 28.5% +0.4% 36 MPs
Greens 11.1% -0.2% 14 MPs
New Zealand First 4.0% +0.2% 0 MPs
Act 3.2% n/c 4 MPs
Mana Party 2.0% n/c 3 MPs
Conservative 1.6% -0.1% 0 MPs
Maori Party 1.3% n/c 3 MPs
UnitedFuture 1.0% n/c 1 MP

Stratos: iPredict Election 2011

iPredict is now featured on TV five nights a week, with political insiders sharing their views and tips on a range of iPredict stocks. The programme screens on Stratos (Sky 89, Freeview 21) weeknights at 7.00 pm.

Tonight's guests: Green co-leader Metiria Turei and and Labour's Auckland Central candidate Jacinda Ardern
Tonight's topics: 1) Has the cup of tea in Epsom reduced National's chances of receiving 50% or more of the Party Vote?
2) Come Election Day, how can the Greens overcome their low voter turnout?
3) Is Auckland Central now a safe National seat?

Last night's programme can be found at http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1111/S00126/ipredict-ep-11-bomber-john-tamihere-matthew-hooton.htm

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. All of the election 2011 stocks, along with political analysis, can be found at www.electionresults.co.nz The daily election snapshot replaces the weekly political snapshot for the final two weeks of the election campaign. It is taken at a random time each day to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. Today's was taken at 8:30 am.

ENDS

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