IPREDICT 2011 DAILY ELECTION UPDATE #4 17 November 11

http://www.ipredict.co.nz

Main Movers

* National's forecast vote-share slipped by 1.5% overnight, however the party would still be able to govern with the support of one of Act, the Maori Party or the Greens

* The probability John Banks will win Epsom has fallen to 58%, while National Party candidate Paul Goldsmith has a 42% probability of winning the seat

* The probability the tea cup recording won't be released before Election Day is up to 79%, from 50% yesterday

* Winston Peters's chance of returning to Parliament has increased to 36% and NZ First is now on the edge of MMP's 5% threshold with a forecast party vote of 4.7%.

The Parties

National 45.5% -1.5% 59 MPs

Labour 28.9% +0.4% 38 MPs

Greens 11.5% +0.2% 15 MPs

NZ First 4.7% +0.1% 0 MPs

Act 2.5% -0.6% 3 MPs

Conservative 2.4% +0.8% 0 MPs

Mana Party 1.9% -0.1% 2 MPs

Maori Party 1.3% n/c 3 MPs

UnitedFuture 1.0% +0.1% 1 MP

Stratos: iPredict Election 2011

iPredict is now featured on TV five nights a week, with political insiders sharing their views and tips on a range of iPredict stocks. Watch iPredict Election 2011, Stratos (Sky 89, Freeview 21) weeknights at 700 pm Last night's episode can be found at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xtRFfTesHY

Tonight's guests: Labour MP for Mt Albert David Shearer and NBR columnist Matthew Hooton Tonight's topics:
1) To what extent has the tea cup recording damaged John Key, and how can National move on from the saga?
2) A Fair-fax media poll out today suggests that National candidate Paul Goldsmith will win Epsom, while the market is forecasting John Banks to win, which is right - the market or the poll?
3) Is the market accurately forecasting the results for the minor Parties with NZ First at 4.7%, Act at 2.5%, Mana at 1.9%, Maori Party at 1.3% and United Future at 1.0%?

Fineprint

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at http://www.ipredict.co.nz The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. All of the election 2011 stocks, along with political analysis, can be found at http://www.electionresults.co.nz The daily election snapshot replaces the weekly political snapshot for the final two weeks of the election campaign. It is taken at a random time each day to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. Today's was taken at 9:54 am.

ENDS

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