Sunday 20th November, 2011

Q+A panel discussions.

The panel discussions have been transcribed below. The full length video interviews and panel discussions from this morning’s Q+A can be watched on tvnz.co.nz at, http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news

Q+A, 9-10am Sundays on TV ONE. Repeats at 9.10pm Sundays, 9:05am and 1:05pm Mondays on TVNZ 7

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PANEL DISCUSSIONS hosted by PAUL HOLMES

PAUL Time to welcome the panel – Dr Jon Johansson from Victoria University; and this week we welcome Sir Don McKinnon, the former National Deputy Prime Minister, former Commonwealth Secretary General and now chair of Auckland Regional Facilities; and Mr Mike Williams, former Labour Party president and the head of the Howard League for Penal Reform. The teacup tape – how much did it damage him and what about the response?

SIR DON MCKINNON – Former Deputy PM
I don’t think it’s damaged him really much at all. I mean, when a prime minister says, ‘I believe this was private on a point of principle,’ it’s got to be taken seriously by anyone. You can’t just let your principle change the following day if you’re the prime minister. But I think he’s said, ‘Look, it’s a frustration more than anything else.’ If he’s worried about things, it’ll be, ‘How can I do better for Pike River? How can I do better for the Christchurch earthquake? How can I do better for the oil spill? What happens if Greece falls out of bed tomorrow,’ sort of thing, and those are the big issues that he’s handling well.

PAUL He seems to really believe in the principle, though, that a private conversation’s a private conversation.

MIKE WILLIAMS – Former Labour President
I think he does, and it’s convenient for him to do so, but it really doesn’t seem— I mean, most of it’s leaked out already. It seems to me there were two things in it – one is irrelevant, one is slightly damaging. The irrelevant one is they’ve appeared to have agreed that Don Brash is a bit of a weirdo. Now, everyone knows Don Brash is a bit of a weirdo, so that’s no news to anybody. He’s quite a nice weirdo, but a weirdo nevertheless. The second thing – they’ve given life to Winston Peters, because this was a mistake. Apparently, what they agreed was that Winston Peters’ vote was dying out or something like that. Now, that is A) untrue – the demographic that Winston appeals to is actually getting bigger and bigger – and B) it’s a silly thing to say, because it gives Winston oxygen and you’re seeing it on your programme this morning. He wouldn’t have been here if it hadn’t been for that.

JON JOHANNSON – Political Analyst
It also seems there’s blow-back in Epsom that it proved counterproductive for what the whole reason for getting together for that cup of tea.

PAUL It didn’t work for Epsom, did it?

JON No.

PAUL Isn’t that the strangest seat battle you’ve ever seen?

JON But that’s—

MIKE Can’t think of any—?

JON That is part of the wash on Saturday night is if ACT is despatched in Epsom, and that’s despite the Prime Minister showing a clear preference for one certain result, you know, that is a slap in the face from, actually, his most supportive electorate in the country.

DON On the other hand, if, in fact, Epsom voters feel that Winston Peters is generally coming back, they may decide to vote tactically, which they’ve been rather ambivalent about in some cases.

MIKE Yeah, but, Don, the problem about this – with ACT scoring at sub-1%, there is actually no advantage in having John Banks, because he might just end up—

JON If you’re not maximising seats—

MIKE Exactly.

JON there’s no strategy.

MIKE It’ll turn into a Peter Dunne party or a Jim Anderton party.

PAUL I think with the rise again of Mr Peters, the votes might fly to the Nats in Epsom, mightn’t they?

DON Well, Epsom voters will be thinking very strongly about the influence—

JON But the other side of this too is we’ve got to see for a week different images of our prime minister, and there’s been a real King Canute quality about him that he’d previously not seen. So one of the principles as Mike was saying, there’s mixed motivations here, and one of the principles was his brand protection. And on that score, you know, I think he’s done longer term damage. It’s not going to hurt him for Saturday, but there’s longer term issues here as a result.
MIKE Yeah, I think he’s— The Prime Minister is a little less bulletproof than he was.

JON Well, even in today’s interview, Paul, we heard three times today, ‘I reject that proposition.’ Well, you know, when you’re actually talking about empirical fact and you’ve got the Prime Minister rejecting that, you know, that just starts to accumulate.

DON Look, we’ve heard for the last, you know, four or five days, everyone on the left has decided the Prime Minister’s on— he’s rocking back, you know, he’s vulnerable. Suddenly, he’s suffering from stress. I mean, nothing could be further from the truth, but some should know this—

MIKE Not the people on the left.

DON everyone has decided they’ve got to make the most of, and it is dancing on a pinhead, frankly.

JON I don’t see how it’s the left—

DON It’s not a stress thing.

PAUL The public don’t like it. The public don’t care. The economy – how realistic is it to hope for 3% growth – both parties are hoping for 3% growth – and to try and balance the books by 2014, 15? As I was saying, at the moot of the boardroom, the word ‘fairy tale’ was used?

MIKE Yeah, well, Don, Rod Oram’s called it ‘delusion’, and I think that’s right. You know, Labour could have painted a different picture. National has maxed out the overdraft. You know, the international credit-ratings agencies have said that. If things don’t come right, where do we go next? And the question that should be asked is austerity, which is causing all sorts of problems in Greece and soon to do so in Italy, or stimulation. And I don’t think there’s any money left for stimulation. That would appear to be the big question in the economy.

PAUL But in the end, over the next, what, three years, Labour are promising to borrow $221 billion. The Nats are doing $220. They’re pretty much the same, aren’t they? And as for the credit-rating agencies, I mean, they were donkey deep in the same scheme, weren’t they?

MIKE Absolutely.

PAUL So—

MIKE It’s hard to know why we take them seriously.

PAUL I know. They—

DON It’s pretty hard to make any judgement when you’re looking at the uncertainty in Europe right now, and it’s a matter of, I think as Mr Key said this morning, you’ve got to be fast on your feet.

PAUL Got to be fast on your feet.

JON But there is an issue here that the longer the delay of the Christchurch rebuild and the centrality of the Christchurch rebuild for the future health of, you know, the short term future health of the New Zealand economy, that makes me very sceptical that these numbers—

PAUL The Christchurch Chamber— The Canterbury Chamber of Commerce now believe the rebuild is 30 billion – going to be a cost of 30 billion. The politics of the week, presumably will Key be— will he win enough to govern alone?

MIKE I’d say there are two possible outcomes to this election. Outcome number one is all the polls are proved wrong. Now, that’s going to happen sometime, but—

PAUL When? (laughs)

MIKE Exactly. Outcome number two is National governs on its own. And if you believe the numbers, that’s what they’re saying. I would put one caveat on that – what the Labour people are finding in their canvassing is still a huge number of undecideds, and it’s where they jump or whether they may even stay home. And remember in the last election, about a quarter of a million people who voted Labour in the election before just stayed home. So that’s the only caveat I’d say, but you’re looking— I’d say you’re looking at National governing in its own right, which brings another dynamic in altogether.

PAUL There we will leave it just for a moment.

==============================

In response to PHIL GOFF INTERVIEW

PAUL Jon Johansson, Sir Don McKinnon and Mike Williams. So, how do you react to that? He’s fighting better than people expected him to fight, I think, isn’t he?

MIKE Look, it’s good solid performance, but Don just said, you know, there are some elections which are unwinnable. I don’t think this one’s all over, and as I said to you in the break, I ran four election campaigns, won three of them. I can’t think how if I was running Labour’s election campaign how I would have run it any differently. I think they’ve done a good job. It’s been a good campaign. John Key’s had a big glitch in his campaign, which was the Cuppagate business – I haven’t seen that happen – there was a stumble in Christchurch by Phil Goff which got played up.

PAUL Well, it was a big stumble. He’s still a bit uncertain about the numbers this morning too, I noticed. I mean, he’s sensitive in that area, isn’t he? Yes.

DON Well, I think, you know, we saw him turning on what has been Phil Goff’s performance. Yes, I agree sometimes he talks more than what he has to, but, you know, I’ve been detecting he and John Key in age are not that far apart – to me, they’re a generation. So many things in what Phil Goff is saying actually take me back to the 1980s when he came into Parliament just a little bit after I did. There’s quite a big gap between them in that respect. I think that’s just something that exists.

PAUL It’s a very peculiar thing, isn’t it? It’s a very strong observation.

JON Yeah, okay, and it’s less perceptible to me, I have to say, because in a generational sense Goff is essentially Key’s older brother. But I think, you know, what Goff has to do, and one thing I’ll say about Phil Goff is he continues to remain, you know, boyishly looking. I remember what Bill English looked like a week out from the 2002 election, and the exhaustion was palpably obvious. Phil needs to get Labour voters to focus really on just two things. His one ace in the hole has been the assets sales. Now, okay, it might not take points off National, but it’s the best—

PAUL How is it an ace in the hole?

JON No, well—

PAUL I mean, it’s a peculiar thing.

JON I’ll explain, Paul. It’s an ace in the hole, mate, because what his strategic goal for this election is to avoid what happened to National in 2002, and he has to use the best weapons he has for those left-leaning voters to decide between his party or the Green Party. Now, for— so this election very much is about making— for him, keeping Labour viable for the 2014 election. That is the bog standard achievement he has to pull off.

PAUL But I wonder why he thinks that asset sales are going to do that, because the polling so far indicates that while people are opposed to asset sales up to 49% of certain assets, it doesn’t hurt the Nats whatsoever.

DON And as he said this morning, you know, we want investment into this and this and this and that. That means the country needs more capital. If you can raise more capital by more public-private partnerships, and that is going to be the way of the future – that is going to be the way of the future. There’s going to be far more public money, but from private people coming into public assets in these joint ownership things. And the sell-down of those big companies down to 49% – that is minor in terms of asset sales. It is— but it does free up capital for the very things you want to do.

PAUL I was discussing yesterday with our producer, do you know, I don’t remember an election in New Zealand that’s ever been so presidential. One man against another – mano a mano.

MIKE Well, it’s—

PAUL It’s who you like.

MIKE Yeah, yeah, but I would make a point here that I think Labour’s been right to hammer away at this asset sales. I’ve said before I don’t know anybody who supports asset sales. Don tells me he does. The way I see it – it’s what John—

DON What do you fringe it on, Michael?

LAUGHTER

MIKE What John Key is trying to do is sell me something I already own. Now, that really only has to pop into a few heads as they go into the polling booth and Labour will do better—

PAUL No, but people don’t look at that. They look at five to seven billion. That’s what—

MIKE Well, do they?

PAUL Well, they must be.

DON And where it can be spent and we’re short of money—

JON Yeah, but if you’ve got a high undecided – 10, 15 and as Mike said earlier, that possibly even more than that – it is those sorts of policies that are the deciders on the day.

PAUL Yeah.

DON Well, that’s the worry of the Cuppagate issue, isn’t it? Is that a deciding issue when, in fact, we should all be judging these leaders on over a three-year period, what has been achieved. And, you know, Phil, nice guy, but in three years, he hasn’t moved that party very much.

PAUL The trouble is, you know, Mr Goff may be really a prisoner of his own professionalism, in a way, of his own longevity, his own success over a long period of time. He’s not new.

JON But he’s actually— In many respects, he’s had a very solid– apart from the Christchurch incident – he’s actually had quite a solid campaign, hasn’t he? And the polls have been interesting in showing that even as the Labour brand is struggling, his stocks are coming off because as people have seen more, they’ve seen the conviction that he actually does have about the policies, you know, he believes in. So it is a dynamic.

DON Phil’s had a lot of convictions as to what he believes in. (laughs)

JON Yeah, yeah.

PAUL Exactly. Let’s move on to seats. On election night, what seats are you going to be looking at? Do you still look at seats?

MIKE Oh, yeah, yeah, well, like Don did, most of my political life is under FPP, so I’m still interested in what happens in the seats. I’ll be looking at Epsom, obviously. I’ll also be looking at seats like West Coast-Tasman where I think it would be very sad if Damien O’Connor finally went out of Parliament. I’ll be looking at Waimakariri. Quite a lot of those voters are no longer in that seat. I’ll be looking at New Plymouth to see if Andrew Little can pull it off.

==============================

In response to WINSTON PETERS INTERVIEW

PAUL So, we’re back with our panellists Mike Williams, Jon Johansson and Sir Don McKinnon. What do you make of that? One thing about that – your mind don’t wander.

MIKE Your mind doesn’t wander, no. I’m going to take the plunge and say I think you may well see Winston back in Parliament on Sunday, and I’ll say that for two reasons. One, he got 4.1% of the vote in the last election in the worst possible political atmosphere. Number two, every time a retired person opens up their wallet, there’s a Super Gold card, and that means a lot if you’re travelling around Auckland, so—

PAUL That was another policy— That was another policy not discussed, actually, that 10% power reductions – electric power reductions for Gold Card holders. That might have an appeal.

DON All the political journalists are thrilled that Winston’s come back because they’ll be following him everywhere. He’s the Pied Piper of politics. He’ll be dropping out little phrases all next week. They’ll be concentrating on him because they get mesmerised by him, so they’ve got to say to themselves, well, add that up.

PAUL They’ve got another Dick Nixon to kick around, I suppose. What do you think? Will they make it?

JON I think, you know, Winston still needs a lot of exposure this week because the run is left because of the limits, you know, on Winston’s exposure before, but for that large pool of undecided, they are seriously weighing up. And, you know, on a different level, you know, the great drama that has been Winston’s career was ending in tragedy in 2008. And whatever turns out last Saturday, his final act has shown a great deal of élan, charm and quality.

PAUL Right, the other parties? This is very quick. I’m into the last minute. The Greens?

MIKE The Greens I don’t think will score as much as they’re polling.

PAUL United Future?

MIKE Gone.

DON I would say the Greens are now splitting into old Green and new Green.

PAUL Isn’t that interesting?

MIKE Yeah, but let’s look at United Future. One thing National has managed to do is trash the local economy in Wellington. I would be very surprised to see National or Peter Dunne do well in Wellington.

PAUL 39,000 civil servants down to 36,000.

JON ACT in Oakley and MMP to be retained.

PAUL Beg your pardon?

JON ACT will end up in Oakley. I mean, it’s madness.

PAUL Okay.

LAUGHTER

MIKE Oakley’s no longer there.

JON Oh, is it no longer there? Well, neither is ACT.

PAUL No, it’s university now.

DON The same thing, isn’t it?

LAUGHTER

MIKE The polytech.

PAUL Yeah, whatever it is. Mana Mana. One of your blokes—

JON Well, it’s all madness. That’s all I’m saying.

PAUL What have we got? Mana?

MIKE I’d watch that one on the night. I think it’s going to be very close.

PAUL And the Maori Party?

JON Three seats.

DON Pita and Tariana – they’ve held their end up.

PAUL Very good. We shall continue this discussion on our web-only panel.

ENDS

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