Roy Morgan Poll - National With Huge Lead Over Labour

Thursday, 28 February 2013, 6:42 pm
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

Finding No. 4867
Available on Website: www.roymorgan.com
On February 28, 2013
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NATIONAL (47.5%) HAS HUGE LEAD OVER LABOUR (30.5%)
BIGGEST SINCE JULY 2012 & WOULD WIN CLOSE ELECTION

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47.5% (up 3.5% since early February and the highest since July 9-22, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 30.5% (down 4%); Greens are 12.5% (down 1%), New Zealand First 3% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party with some minor Party support would win the Election.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 3pts to 121.5 with 54% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 32.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a surge in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National (47.5%, up 3.5%) now with its biggest lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (30.5%, down 4%) since July 2012. Support for third party the Greens has also dropped to 12.5% (down 1%).

“Today’s result was surveyed prior to Opposition Leader David Shearer’s cabinet reshuffle and suggests the changes were badly needed by an Opposition Party that is yet to make a serious dent in the strong lead held by Prime Minister Key’s National since the 2008 New Zealand Election, now over 4 years ago. Although the next NZ Election is still over 18 months ago, Labour must significantly improve its position if it is to have a real chance of regaining power in late 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,052 electors from February 11 – 24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%. The Mana Party was launched in July 2011.

Two-Party Preferred: National Party led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, NZ First, Mana Party. Conservative Party & Other not included as they are not represented in Parliament.

Finding No. 4867 is taken from Computer Report No. 2373

The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.


NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

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A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.

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