Wednesday, 17 September 2014
John Key set to win
narrow election victory on Saturday as Labour/Greens slump
puts Winston Peters in powerful position as NZ First surge
to 8%
Today’s New
Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 1.5%) set
to win a third term in Government on Saturday as support for
a potential Labour/Greens alliance slumps to 37.5% (down
4.5% - the lowest since November 2011). Support for both
main opposition parties has slipped – Labour (24%, down
2%) and the Greens (13.5%, down 2.5%) less than a week
before Saturday’s NZ
Election.
New Zealand First
(8%, up 2%) appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the
Labour/ Greens slump as the election approaches and former
Deputy Prime Minister and New Zealand First Leader Winston
Peters looks set to have a prominent role in the new
Parliament with NZ First projected to win as many as 10
seats. This is the highest support for NZ first for nearly
ten years since August 2005.
Support for Key’s Coalition partners has risen slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%). The Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1% (unchanged) while support for the Conservative Party of NZ is at 3.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).
If a National Election were
held last weekend the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll
shows that Prime Minister John Key would retain Government
with his National (58) - Maori Party (3) - Act NZ (1) -
United Future (1) Coalition securing 63 out of 121 seats in
Parliament.
The latest NZ
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 138pts
(up 2pts) with 62% (up 1%) saying New Zealand is ‘heading
in the right direction’ compared to 24% (down 1%) that say
New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The NZ
Government Confidence Rating (138) remains substantially
higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week
was at 95pts.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan,
says:
“Today’s New
Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, 58 seats) set
to win a third term in Government on Saturday with the
continued support of the Maori Party (1.5%, 3 seats), Act NZ
(0.5%, 1 seat) and United Future (0.5%, 1 seat) – a
majority of 63 seats in a 121 seat
Parliament.
“Prime Minister John Key
is likely to repeat the feat of his predecessor, Helen
Clark, and win a third straight term in office as National
has stretched its lead over the main Opposition Labour/
Greens alliance (37.5%, down 4.5%). Both parties lost
support in the past fortnight with Labour slumping to 24%
(down 2%) and the Greens falling to 13.5% (down
2.5%).
“Today’s results show Key
has successfully weathered the scandals of recent weeks –
including the resignation of Justice Minister Judith Collins
and also the allegations revealed in Nicky Hager’s
controversial book – ‘Dirty
Politics’.
“However,
today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll doesn’t cover the
latest allegations made on Sunday by Kim Dotcom about the
surveillance society in New Zealand. If these revelations
land a blow on John Key National could fall short of the
crucial 45% level and potentially leave NZ First as
‘king-makers’ after the
election.
“Only
a few days before the election there are still 5% of NZ
electors undecided about their voting preference, and these
electors could well prove crucial. However, NZ First Leader
Winston Peters appears likely to once again claim the title
as the best campaigner with support for NZ First increasing
to 8% (the highest NZ First support since August 2005)
enough to win as many as 10 seats in the new
Parliament.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 935 electors from September 1-14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
For full
release go to http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1409/NZNationalVotingIntention_Sept_17.docx