Milder Conditions Likely to Continue

National Climate Centre Wednesday 5 October 2005

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2005

Milder Conditions Likely to Continue with More Northerly Winds

Climate and Oceans: More northerly quarter airflow than normal is expected over New Zealand with sea temperatures remaining above average. The tropical Pacific is presently in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña). Conditions are likely to stay in the neutral range for the next three to six months.

Temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be above average in all regions of the country.

Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and Nelson-Marlborough. Normal rainfall is likely in the other districts. Below normal soil moisture and river flow levels are expected in the east of the South Island. Elsewhere soil moisture and streamflows are expected to be normal.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Above average temperatures are likely during October - December. Normal or above normal rainfall, stream flows and soil moisture are expected.

Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:

For the three month period, above average temperatures are expected. Normal or above normal seasonal rainfall, soil moisture levels, and streamflows are likely.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa:

Temperatures are forecast to be above average during the three month period. Normal rainfall is likely, with near normal soil and stream flows expected.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:

Above average seasonal temperatures are expected, with above normal or normal rainfall likely over the three months. Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are predicted for this region.

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:

Above average seasonal temperatures are forecast for October - December. Normal rainfall, soil moisture levels and river flows are predicted.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:

Above average October - December temperatures are expected with normal rainfall. Below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows expected.

ENDS

More information can be found on NIWA’s Website at: http://www.niwa.co.nz/ncc

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