Modelling raises crucial transport issues

Energy availability modelling raises crucial transport issues

With the prospect of substantial urban sprawl in New Zealand cities and increasing car usage, Dr Andre Dantas (Civil Engineering), Dr Susan Krumdieck (Mechanical Engineering) and mechanical engineering PhD student Shannon Page have developed a software system to measure the impact of potential fuel shortages for a variety of future scenarios.

RECATS, the software model, was an outcome from their report Energy Risk to Activity Systems as a Function of Urban Form. The report, commissioned by Land Transport New Zealand, investigated the impact of little or no fuel availability — RECATS was designed to support decision-making in terms of the impacts of possible fuel shortages.

“We have presented our results and demonstrated the RECATS modelling capability to a range of transport engineers, council employees, and commercial trucking providers. The consistent feedback is that the RECATS could provide a vital tool in long-range planning and community development,” said Dr Dantas. RECATS calculates a risk factor according to a given year, urban form and travel demand.

The prospect of running out of petroleum is a worrying thought. The impact would be far reaching, Dr Dantas said.

“People would be heavily affected in their daily lives if they are not self-sufficient — how are food and goods going to be transported if we don't have fuel for trucks and vehicles?

“Transport planners have historically assumed that fuel supply is unlimited. We go about our daily lives without worrying about the energy that we consume,” he said.

“Currently our consumption is higher than production. As long as we have an income to buy fuel we carry on as usual. New Zealand is the second highest country in the world per capita for petrol consumption. The highest is the US with 2.7 mega joule-km per person; New Zealand is 2.0 mega joule-km per person.”

Surrounding the debate is the concern that there is no other fuel source that can currently replace petroleum. Nuclear energy is controversial, ethanol and biofuels have a diesel component and solar or wind energy cannot generate enough energy.

“These energy sources do not produce enough energy to substitute economically and environmentally for petroleum. To run the Orbiter bus at 100% capacity, as it runs now, we would need a huge dam or a considerable part of the Canterbury Plains would need to be covered with solar panels. Realistically we will need to live with less fuel.”

With recent world-wide disruptions to fuel supply there is vulnerability of existing transportation systems. Land Transport New Zealand commissioned the report because of the unsustainable trend in transport with declining energy supply, fossil fuel reliance and suburban growth.

Despite rising alarm about future energy availability, major planning initiatives such as the numerous urban developments around New Zealand have not yet incorporated energy shortage/crisis risks.

“Pegasus Town near Woodend is built to last 200-300 years, yet fuel will not be available then. As fuel becomes more expensive what will happen to the town's viability, how will it survive?” said Dr Krumdieck.

“In 2030 there is an 85% chance that people in New Zealand will have 30% less energy than we have now.”

ENDS

© Scoop Media