NIWA Outlook: March-May 2014

NIWA Outlook: March-May 2014

During March–May 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north of the country, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of New Zealand.

This circulation pattern is likely to be associated with anomalous north-easterly flows over the North Island and anomalous weak easterly flows over the South Island.

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average around New Zealand, for the coming three months as a whole.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral ENSO-state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in February 2014. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for autumn, but in the following winter season about half the international models develop El Niño or borderline El Niño conditions.

Outlook Summary

March–May temperatures are most likely (45-50% chance) to be near average for all regions of the country. As autumn progresses, cold snaps and frosts can be expected from time to time in some parts of the country.

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average for the coming three months around New Zealand.

March–May rainfall is likely (40-45% chance) to be near normal or below normal for the north and west of the North Island, and for the north, west and south of the South Island. For the eastern regions of both Islands, three-month rainfall totals are most likely (50% chance) to be in the near normal range.

Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45-55% chance) to be below normal in the north and west of the North Island and in the west and south of the South Island. They are also about equally likely (40-45% chance) to be near normal or below normal in the north and east of the South Island, but most likely (45% chance) to be near normal in the east of the North Island.

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