New Zealand vulnerable to the threats of climate change
New Zealand vulnerable to the
threats of climate change – report finds
A report released today by the Royal Society of New Zealand highlights how New Zealand will be impacted by climate change.
It finds that climate change, already underway, will almost certainly accelerate this century unless drastic action is taken to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases.
It identified six
areas where global climate change could have significant
implications for New Zealand’s prosperity and well-being.
These are risks to:
• our coastal
margins
• flooding from rivers
• availability of
and competition for freshwater
• changes to our
surrounding oceans
• threats to unique
ecosystems
• flow-on effects from climate change
impacts and responses elsewhere, which will affect New
Zealand through our strong international connectivity.
Changes expected to impact New Zealand include at least 30cm and possibly more than one metre of sea-level rise this century – the report finds it likely that the sea level rise around New Zealand will exceed the global average, which will cause coastal erosion and flooding, especially when combined with storm surges.
“Many New Zealanders live on the coast and two-thirds of us live in flood-prone areas so we are vulnerable to these projected changes,” says Professor James Renwick, Chair of the Expert Panel who wrote the report.
Even small changes in average conditions can be associated with large changes in the frequency of extreme events, he says.
“With a 30cm rise in sea level, the current ‘1 in 100 year’ extreme sea event would be expected to occur once every year or so in many coastal regions. Along the Otago coast for example, the difference between a 2-year and 100-year storm surge is about 32cm of sea level.”
Changes in rainfall patterns where the ‘wet gets wetter and the dry gets drier’, together with more frequent extreme events, will put pressure on our housing, infrastructure and industry, especially if changes are rapid, the report finds.
Freshwater resources will also likely be put under pressure, with decreasing annual average rainfall in eastern and northern regions of both islands, plus higher temperatures and increased demand from urban expansion and agriculture.
Fire danger is also predicted to increase in many parts of New Zealand.
Changes in the oceans, including water temperature, acidification and currents will have impacts on New Zealand’s marine life, including aquaculture. On land, existing environmental stresses to New Zealand’s unique species will likely be exacerbated, with increased ranges for animal pests and weeds predicted.
The report also considers New Zealand’s international connections and how trade relationships and migration patterns could change.
Royal Society of New Zealand President, Emeritus Professor Richard Bedford, says the report was sought to provide a clear summary of the scientific evidence and projections of climate change and to identify the key risks these changes pose to New Zealand.
“It is critical to communicate clearly New Zealand’s sensitivities to climate change and the need for responsive systems to address them. All New Zealanders will be affected and must be involved in the discussion. We hope this report can act as a basis for a wider national conversation.”
This report will be followed up soon by another expert panel report on how New Zealand can mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Copies of the report and supporting resources can be found at www.royalsociety.org.nz/climatechange
Key findings – New Zealand’s sensitivities to climate change
Coastal Change:
New Zealanders live mainly near coasts
Shoreline
ecology, public infrastructure, residential and commercial
assets, community values and the future use of
coastal-marine resources will be severely affected by
changes to coasts due to sea level rise, and storm surge,
and secondary effects such as erosion and flooding.
Flooding: many New Zealanders live on
floodplains
Damaging flood events will occur
more often and will affect rural and urban areas
differently. At and near the coast, floods will interact
with rising sea levels and storm surges. Increasing
frequency and severity of high intensity rainfall events
will increase these risks.
Freshwater
resources: New Zealanders rely on the availability of
freshwater
Increased pressure on water resources
is almost certain in future. Decreasing annual average
rainfall in eastern and northern regions of both main
islands, plus higher temperatures, are projected to increase
the frequency and intensity of droughts and the risk of wild
fire. At the same time, urban expansion and increased demand
for water from agriculture will result in increased
competition for freshwater resources.
The
Ocean: New Zealand is surrounded by sea
Changes
in ocean temperature, chemistry, and currents due to climate
change will have impacts on New Zealand’s marine life,
fishing, aquaculture and recreation use.
Ecosystem change: New Zealand has unique
ecosystems
Over half of New Zealand’s more
than 50,000 species are found nowhere else in the world;
over three quarters of the vascular plants, raising to 93%
for alpine plants, and over 80% for the more than 20,000
invertebrates. Existing environmental stresses will interact
with, and in many cases be exacerbated by, shifts in mean
climatic conditions and associated change in the frequency
or intensity of extreme events, especially fire, drought,
and floods.
International Impacts: New
Zealand is affected by impacts and responses to climate
change occurring overseas
The ways in which
other countries are affected by and will respond to climate
change, plus commitments New Zealand makes to international
climate treaties, will influence New Zealand’s
international trade relationships, migration patterns and
specific domestic responses.
Report
launch
The launch for the findings of this
expert panel is at 11am on Tuesday 19 April at the Royal
Society of New Zealand in Thorndon, Wellington. It will
feature special international guest Professor Jean
Palutikof, Director of the National Climate Change
Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University,
Queensland. Professor Palutikof previously managed the
production of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report for Working Group II
(Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability). Professor Palutikof
will give a public talk in Wellington that evening.
Climate Change Implications for New Zealand
Panel Members
Professor James Renwick (Chair):
Physical Geography Professor, Victoria University,
Wellington
Dr Barbara Anderson:
Rutherford Discovery Fellow, Landcare Research
Manaaki Whenua, Dunedin
Dr Alison
Greenaway: Social Researcher, Landcare Research
Manaaki Whenua, Auckland
Darren King:
Environmental Scientist, National Institute of Water and
Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington
Dr Sara
Mikaloff-Fletcher: Atmosphere-Ocean Scientist,
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA),
Wellington
Dr Andy Reisinger: Deputy
Director (International), New Zealand Agricultural
Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, Wellington
Dr
Helen Rouse: Resource Management Scientist,
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA),
Christchurch
ENDS