Earthquake and tsunami, genes, and spin off to science

Friday, 18 November 2016, 5:01 pm
Column: Science Media Centre

In this issue: Kaikoura earthquake and tsunami confusion,gene editing and spin off to science.

Issue 400, 18 Nov 2016

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Day 3: Kaikoura earthquake, what do we know?

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Midnight earthquake strikes
It's been a hectic, frightening and stressful week for many around the country after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake hit North Canterbury on Monday.

The earthquake was initially recorded at magnitude 7.5 but has since been upgraded as seismologists have raced to find out more about the shake.

By Wednesday, GNS Science geologists were saying that six faults ruptured during the earthquake that lasted two minutes (see image, provided by GNS Science). The Kekerengu Fault at the South Island's east coast appears to have had up to 10 metres of slip.

GNS Science's Caroline Holden said in a live Q&A on Wednesday that the earthquake possibly occurred along 200km of fault rupture. "Therefore it takes more time to carefully understand the earthquake process and its impacts on the ground."

Some of GeoNet's GPS stations have recorded displacement of up to 2m in places. Kaikoura has been moved to the northeast by nearly a metre and upward by 70cm.

There have been an estimated 80,000 to 100,000 landslidestriggered by the initial quake and subsequent aftershocks, spread over some 70,000 square kilometres.

Some of the faults go offshore, which means as yet seismologists don't know the extent of rupturing offshore. Niwa's research ship Tangaroa has been diverted to survey the ocean floor in Cook Strait, Marlborough and Kaikoura.

Clearly there will be a lot to learn from this earthquake, with information changing as more data comes in. Currently, GeoNet is estimating a 93 per cent probability of an aftershock of magnitude 6.0-6.9 in the next month. That means this is a good time to reassess your emergency plans and equipment, which the Civil Defence has advice on.

You can help with the scientific response by filling in a detailed felt report or by sending photos of affected marine areas or other observations to k.clark@gns.cri.nz (more info about this request).

The SMC has been gathering expert commentary on earthquake this week:
• Earthquakes and landslides - Expert Q&A
• Earthquake effect on tourism - Expert Q&A
• Coping with disaster - Expert Q&A
• Earthquake-damaged buildings - Expert Reaction
• Kaikoura earthquake recovery - Expert Reaction
• Marine uplift from earthquake - Expert Reaction
• Magnitude 7.8 earthquake - Expert Reaction

Quoted: GeoNet

"It is perfectly acceptable to be scared by this earthquake but we will get through this by doing what I think Kiwis do best: helping each other.

"We saw this with the Canterbury earthquakes and we are seeing this again."

GeoNet director Dr Ken Gledhill
on responding to the "monster".

Confusion over tsunami alert
As the bustle of the first few days after the earthquake begins to settle, questions are turning to how we receive tsunami warnings.

The wee hours of Monday morning will be remembered by many not just as frightening, but also confusing, following mixed messages about tsunami warnings.

After the earthquake struck at 12.02am, automated estimates put it at magnitude 6.8 (later upgraded to 7.5 and then, several days later, 7.8). A Civil Defence advisory at 12.48am announced no tsunami threat to New Zealand. Minutes later, at 1am, the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management (MCDEM) issued a tsunami warning for all southern coastal areas but made no mention of the east coast.

The result was confusion and frustration, with many unsure if they should evacuate or when it was safe to return home.

Acting Civil Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee has indicated to The Dominion Post that the emergency management system could be in for an overhaul, to ensure there was not a repeat of Monday's early-morning chaos.

Meanwhile, others have suggested there was no reason to advise people to flee and too many false alarms would cause people to lose faith in the warning system.

Writing on The Conversation, Curtin University tsunami expert Jane Cunneen discussed the fast-changing state of play on Monday morning as seismologists hurried to find out more details about where the earthquake struck and its exact magnitude.

Despite incredible technology now at our hands, "there are still limits on how quickly we can accurately measure and locate an earthquake and assess the likely tsunami risk," she wrote.

"It takes time to get accurate information to the public after an earthquake and tsunami, so those living closest to the hazard zones need to be aware of natural warning signs and not rely only on official warning messages," she concluded.

MCDEM responded to questions from Toby Manhire, writing for the NZ Herald, saying that people shouldn't "sit around waiting for an official notification... it's dangerous to give people the impression that they should expect to receive an official warning".

Read a summary of news coverage about the tsunami warning system.

Gene editing reviewed
Gene editing technologies have been widely misunderstood in the past. A new wave of technologies has brought the issue to the forefront once more which will have significant implications for New Zealand.

The Royal Society of New Zealand released its expert advicethis week about historical and current uses of gene editing. It provides accessible information about the much-hyped new gene editing technologies, which have the potential to benefit our healthcare, conservation and agricultural sectors.

The Society has prepared a fact sheet, infographics (also available in Te Reo) and an animation in simple language, explaining current gene-editing technologies and what they are already being used for around the world.

Royal Society of New Zealand President Professor Richard Bedford said that “these new techniques are promising, especially because of how precise and reversible they are compared with traditional breeding or genetic modification techniques".

However, as there are significant ethical and legal questions about the use of gene editing technologies, further work needs to be done before they are widely adopted in New Zealand.

To address this, the Society has also convened a multidisciplinary panel of New Zealand’s leading experts to consider the implications for New Zealand through ethical, social, legal, regulatory, environmental and economic lenses.

Barry Scott, Professor of Molecular Genetics at Massey University, who is heading the multidisciplinary panel, says that gene-editing technology has taken off worldwide following the development of a technique called CRISPR in 2012, which has dramatically reduced the cost and difficulty of gene editing compared with other techniques.

The expert advice is timely as just this week, cells modified by one of the more prominent gene editing technologies CRISPR, were tested in a person for the first time.

RNZ interviewed Professor Barry Scott about the panel.

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