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SMC Bulletin - The costs of climate inaction
The costs of climate inaction
A new report
commissioned by Westpac suggests billions of dollars could
be on the line if there is further delay in moving to a
low-carbon economy.
Released this week and carried out by EY and Vivid Economics, the report suggests that New Zealand’s economy could be $30 billion better off if early action is taken to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
Modelling two scenarios – an early, smooth transition versus a delayed, abrupt transition – the key difference was the timing of inclusion of agriculture within the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme.
Massey University's Professor Ralph Sims, director of the Centre for Energy Research, said the comparison of the two scenarios confirmed "what global scientific and economic analysis has stated for some time – that the sooner we take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions the greater the benefits will be, and the lower the overall costs in the long term".
Victoria University of Wellington's Professor James Renwick said the report had focused on limiting warming to 2C, despite the Paris Agreement specifying that signatories must pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5C.
"The finding that it’s better to start earlier and make a smoother transition is good to see, but not surprising," he said. "For tourism, I wonder if the report considers the future cost and social acceptability of flying. There’s no indication they have, and these are things that could change quickly."
Prof Sims said Westpac had "shown leadership on climate change issues...for several years. The commissioning by the bank of this independent report is timely, especially given the Government’s plans to introduce a Zero Carbon Act and to set up an advisory Climate Change Commission."
"Having to make lifestyle changes and capital investments (such as in transport infrastructure) now, to gain benefits in the long term, is a message that is hard for many New Zealanders to accept. This independent Westpac NZ analysis should lead to a greater understanding of the urgent need for everyone to take action now – a message hard to convey."
The SMC gathered expert reaction to the report.
Quoted: NZ Herald
"Overall, people in
Wellington are not as prepared as they could or should be
for something like an earthquake.
"I want to change this, so that we as individuals and as a city can survive better the hazards in our future."
Victoria
University of Wellington PhD candidate Lauren Vinnell
on research aiming to get Kiwis better
prepared for disasters.
Hops appetite pill on
market
Years of study at Plant and Food Research
has led to the development of an appetite-suppressing pill
which has just been launched in New Zealand and soon the
United States.
Calocurb
The pills
use a compound, registered as Amarasate, from hops, which
the research team honed in on following tests of 900
extracts. The bitter-tasting compound “activates a process
which is normally activated by food anyway,” said Plant
and Food research scientist Dr John Ingram. “But it just
does it in an extreme way and it triggers specific cells
there to signal to the brain that you’re full.”
So
far there has been only one clinical trial of the pill,
which involved 19 men of “normal weight” who were each
put through placebo phase plus the hop extract in two
different capsule types, each of which ran for three days.
During the hop extract phases of the trial, the men were
reported to eat about 220 fewer calories when offered lunch
and a snack where they were instructed to eat until they
were comfortably full.
Dr Ingram presented that trial
information at a conference in 2016 and has been
searching for funding for longer-term trials since. In the
meantime, the product is being marketed as Calocurb, available online only
at a cost of $60 per 45 capsule bottle; it will go on the US
market next month. It cannot be legally promoted for weight
loss due to New Zealand laws that prohibit that claim being
made about natural products.
Healthy Food Guide
Nutritionist Claire Turnbull warned Seven Sharp the pill was
no magic bullet. “It’s actually important to think about
the quality of the food that you’re eating and also you
need to remember to include exercise in the
picture.”
University of Otago Professor Jim Mann,
Director of Edgar Diabetes & Obesity Research, told stuff.co.nz that he would
not recommend the product on the available evidence. “Any
clinician who has been involved in treating patients who are
obese would want to see long-term randomised controlled
trials. You can claim it has metabolic effects but you
can’t extrapolate that to weight
management.”
Policy news & developments
NAIT review released: The review of the animal tracing system NAIT has been released.
Irrigation subsidies winding down: The Government has begun winding down public funding for large-scale irrigation through Crown Irrigation Investments Limited.
Myrtle rust spreads: The
Ministry for Primary Industries says the fight against
myrtle rust will shift gears now that the fungal disease has
been found in the South Island. As containment has not been
possible, the response will shift from surveillance and
removal to long-term management.
This
week on the NZ Conversation.
The urban agenda: what will New Zealand’s
new government bring for towns and
cities?
Jenny McArthur, University
College London
See more NZ-authored Conversation articles.
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