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Election Night Viewers Guide
Election Night Viewers Guide
For Immediate Release,
November 3, 2008
Michael O'Neil, PhD
Contents: How Networks Do Electoral Projections.
Network projections are made from two sources First,
exit polls are conducted by an entity contracted by a
consortium of all the news networks and several national
papers. There is a single entity that does this. (While it
might seem better for each organization to do its own, this
is cost-prohibitive. Think in the neighborhood of $100
million dollars for each separate operation). The results
are compiled and shared with the networks who make
independent decisions about how and when to "call" a race.
The poll results will be available at the time the polls
close in a given state. If the outcome is clear-cut, an
immediate call will be made within minutes of the closing of
a state's polls. If the race is at all close, it will not
be called until enough actual votes are tallied to make the
result evident. (If you hear the phrase "Too Close to Call"
this is what happened.) But the analysts will not rely on
the total raw counts reported, but on random samples of
actual votes. In the case of a moderate margin, this will be
sufficient to make a projection. But if a state is really
close, this may not be sufficient. Then a call would have to
await the counting of a much larger number of votes. How
many need to be counted depend on how close the race is. In
practice, this means that some states are called within a
couple of minutes of poll closing while others are called
much later. Indeed, it means that if an immediate call
cannot be made on the basis of the exit polls, it will
usually be quite some time before a call is made. How much
longer? That will vary widely, depending on the winner's
margin of victory in a given state.
What the networks
will not do. First, they will not call a state before
the polls in that state are closed. Second, they will not
call the election until they can call states totaling over
270 electoral votes, even though everyone knows that only 17
states are remotely in play (the outcomes of all of the
others are beyond any reasonable
doubt). How you can know the winner before the
network will tell you. Download and print the
chart by clicking on this link. It assigns 238 votes to Barack
Obama; these are from states whose outcome is beyond
question. He needs 32 more for an Electoral College
majority. (31 would produce a tie, and he would probably,
but not certainly, be elected.) Should Obama get his 32
Electoral Votes (or if it is clear he will not) the networks
will not tell you this outcome until they can project the
outcomes from the other states, even if these are the states
for which we already know the outcomes. This is not because
they do not know better, but because they are afraid of the
criticism they will get if they "call" the election before
the polls are closed everywhere. But if you use this chart,
you are likely to know the winner before much earlier,
possibly hours before the networks will tell you
"officially". Why use Obama as the base? For
simplicity: since he has 238 Electoral Votes locked up and
is only 32 short, it makes computations simpler. Rest
assured, if Obama does not win, McCain does. If I used
McCain as the base, the computations would have been more
complicated since his base is much smaller, but the computed
outcome would be identical. What I did. This 238
"safe" Obama electoral vote figure is actually close to the
most conservative estimate I could come up with after
looking at the polls and several compilations. It does NOT
include any "Obama Lean" states; only those rather
universally regarded as locked up by him. The only
exception to this I found was that NBC rated Iowa (7
electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) as
"lean Obama" rather than certain Obama. I could find nothing
in published polls to support these calls. Each shows double
digit Obama leads and neither has had a single poll with a
McCain lead in over a month. I think NBC put them in the
Lean category because they each went Republican in one of
the two last Presidential elections. (If you want to be
really conservative, reduce the Obama number to 227 and add
these two states to my list. But it won't matter, so I kept
these states out of the computations for simplicity). What else did I exclude from the list? The "solid
McCain" states, of course. But I also excluded the "lean
McCain" states of South Dakota (3), Arkansas (6), West
Virginia (5) and Arizona (10). (Interestingly, some raters
even rate Arizona as a "tossup" state) While Obama might win
some of these, I figure if Obama needs any of these to win
it means he has lost most all of the tossup states and will
most likely lose these as well. If there is an Obama
landslide, these lean McCain states could be in play, but
they will not determine the outcome. So, again, for
simplicity, I omitted them. There is also one
congressional district in NE that Obama could carry for a
single electoral vote (McCain will win the rest of the
state) and one in ME that McCain could carry (Obama will
carry the rest of the state). Neither should matter unless
it is very close. How to Use the Chart.
Ignore all results other than the 13 states
indicated on the chart. These are either safe Obama or
safe McCain states (and a few lean McCain states excluded
for reasons described above). When one of the critical 13
states' results is determined, enter then number of
electoral votes for Obama (either the EV total for the state
if he wins, or 0 if McCain wins). • If this number
totals 32 or more, go to bed, Obama is elected even if the
networks will not tell you this. This could be really early
in the evening. If this chart is filled out and the numbers
you have entered here total less than 31, McCain is
elected. • If the chart is completely filled out and
totals something very close to 31 you might want to rip it
up and look at those other states and the CDs in ME and NE.
But there is not much chance that will happen. (Remember,
my purpose was to give you something that I am 99% sure will
give you the correct outcome and get you to focus on what
matters early in the evening without being confused by
"calls" of the thirty-some-odd states for which we already
know the outcome. But, if you end up with a number close to
31, you might want to pay attention to the other commentary.
Hour by Hour Guide (all times Eastern). 7pm. I
think an Obama victory in either GA or IN would be
game-ending. They are a couple of his weakest states on the
list. Should he win IN, it will clue that he will probably
carry OH and PA as well. Likewise GA would be a surprise
and would probably signal a victory in NC and game over.
But neither of these is highly likely and an Obama loss
would not be a major blow to his chances. 7:30pm. North Carolina for Obama probably
means he carries VA as well and wins the election. Likewise
an Ohio victory probably means a PA victory and he
wins. 8pm. PA is the closest thing to a "must win"
for Obama. With PA there are many win combinations for him.
Without it, it gets difficult. FL would nearly cinch an
Obama win by itself. Missouri is McCain's strongest chance
of the three. 9pm. If Obama hasn't cinched by now,
NM and CO are likely to be "must wins". 10pm.
Nevada is the only remaining Obama likely state. If Obama
"needs" ND (11pm) and MT (10pm), it probably means he has
had such a bad night that these are likely to go for McCain
as well.
How Networks Do Electoral Projections
How you can know the winner before the network
will tell you.
Hour by Hour Guide (poll
closing times by state)
Simplified
Electoral College Chart (only states in play)
How to use the Chart
Summary
Observations
What states are in my 238? While this was not my
criterion, my 238 happens to be all of the Kerry 2004
states, plus Iowa (7 electoral votes) minus Pennsylvania (21
electoral votes). I have already discussed Iowa. PA has
clearly been a McCain target; he knows that without it, his
winning options are few. And the Republican Party of PA has
been running a Rev. Wright commercial starting on Sunday.
One wonders what the effect will be of this commercial.
Not so
Virginia; this is Obama's strongest state of the three. A VA
win for Obama with a PA win later and it is game
over.
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