FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief
February 12, 2010

Iran

The balance in the Iranian uprising is shifting in the regime's favor. Iran dealt a blow to the opposition Thursday, rallying tens of thousands of pro-regime marchers and disrupting, sometimes violently, protests long-planned to show continuing dissatisfaction with the regime on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic republic's founding. The show of force came as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a pro-government crowd in Tehran that Iran had successfully enriched uranium to higher levels than before. Iranian officials also said Thursday they could enrich uranium further still, though Mr. Ahmadinejad said Iran had no intention of producing a nuclear bomb. Tehran's crackdown and fresh nuclear claims appeared to be a message to critics at home and abroad: Mr. Ahmadinejad's government remains unbowed, despite pressure from Washington and allied capitals to curb its nuclear ambitions, and amid persistent domestic unrest spawned by last summer's contested presidential elections. – Wall Street Journal

Iran’s surprise move this week to begin enriching its uranium to a level closer to weapons-grade violated an agreement with atomic inspectors in Vienna, diplomats said, very likely providing the United States with another piece of evidence that Iran is not living up to its international commitments on its nuclear program. The breach involved Iran’s starting the enrichment process in the absence of atomic inspectors — something that the International Atomic Energy Agency had specifically asked Iran not to do. Narrowly, the violation was viewed as technical in nature. But it caused resentment at the atomic agency’s headquarters in Vienna because Iran had acted so quickly and with such apparent contempt of the agreement. “There’s a feeling of pique and annoyance,” said a European diplomat who works with the agency and spoke on condition of anonymity, because he was not authorized to speak with reporters. On Wednesday, the agency issued a report on the matter to its member states. The diplomat called the report an expression of the agency’s umbrage. – New York Times

Even as Washington's allies in Europe respond to Iran's heightened nuclear rhetoric with a push for further economic sanctions, the U.S.'s Arab allies are staying on the sidelines. In recent weeks, top Arab diplomats have shuttled between the Mideast and Washington to discuss potential policies to deter Iran's nuclear ambitions. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, was set to travel to the Middle East this weekend for meetings in Qatar and Saudi Arabia…Washington's allies here have to balance fear of Iranian nuclear advances with the reality of Iran's proximity and the still-significant trade and economic ties they share with Tehran. "The situation [with Iran] has looked bad from our point of view for a very long time," said one Gulf Arab diplomat. "Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it's going to get any better." Still, this official said, "those of us here at ground zero have to be very cautious." – Wall Street Journal

When a motorcycle was blown up by remote control in Tehran last month, killing Masoud Alimohammadi, a professor of physics, the regime blamed “the triangle of wickedness”—Israel, America and their “hired agents”. It is no secret that America, Israel and European countries are seeking to impede Iran’s nuclear plans, overtly and covertly. Yet the assassination theory was widely dismissed. The professor’s known works on particle and theoretical physics did not seem central to Iran’s nuclear programme. And his name had appeared on a list of Iranian academics favouring Iran’s protest movement. So, ran the prevailing theory, Israel or America had little reason to kill him, though Iranian hardliners may have wanted to do so. But listen to the whispers of Western spies and diplomats, and the Iranian regime may turn out to be right. - Economist

Laura Rozen reports: [W]hen Agency inspectors arrived at the pilot facility...yesterday, February 10th, Iran informed them that they had begun work there the previous evening on a process called passivation (Lewis explains what that is). The IAEA inspectors "were also that told that it was expected that the facility would begin to produce up to 20% enriched Uf6 within a few days." Then IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano writes, "It should be noted that there is currently only one cascade installed in the PFEP that is capable of enriching the LEU up to 20%." Does that mean, with only one cascade, they can't produce the 20% enriched uranium so fast? Or does that increase concern that they have a separate enrichment facility? - Politico

Richard Haass writes: It is time the West made it clear that it is on the side of the protesters. Neither European governments nor the United States can usher in fundamental reform, but they can energise and lend rhetorical support to the opposition, helping it to communicate with the outside world and stay abreast of what is going on. It is anything but clear that these three timelines — the nuclear, the diplomatic and the political — will work out in a way that serves the world’s interests. It is quite possible that Iran’s nuclear work may progress faster than negotiations. Indeed, Iran’s policy may be to play for time while its scientists overcome their technical difficulties. Similarly, it might take months to gain international support for more robust sanctions and even then years for them to have an impact. Again, lab work is likely to outpace diplomacy. This is why the West can no longer remain on the sidelines. Our leaders must speak out for the Iranian people who seek change. The goal must be to accelerate the political timeline, If we don’t the work in Iran’s laboratories will force Europe, the United States and Israel to choose between two distinctly unattractive choices: accepting a nuclear Iran or attacking it. – Times of London

Afghanistan/Pakistan

With a military operation looming, Afghan leaders met Thursday with tribal elders from the southern city of Marja to tell them that, indeed, government and NATO forces would soon rid the area of Taliban fighters and that Afghan police officers and soldiers would stay behind after the fighting was over. Skip to next paragraphHanif Atmar, the Afghan interior minister, told a group of about 350 elders from Marja’s main tribes that a major military operation would begin in the area soon. When it is over, he said, about 1,000 police officers will be assigned to help keep the Taliban out. Mr. Atmar also promised that the government would initiate development projects, including roads and health clinics. Marja’s tribal elders, who gathered in the governor’s office in nearby Lashkar Gah, voiced support for the military operation to clear the Taliban from Marja, according to several Afghans and a senior American commander who attended the meeting. Some of the elders said they would help persuade the Taliban to leave before the battle started and identify hidden bombs for the Afghan and American soldiers as they came through. – New York Times

Two suicide bombers attacked police officers in northwestern Pakistan on Thursday, killing 15 people and wounding 20 others in the second attack on Pakistani police officers in as many days, the authorities said. Skip to next paragraphA local security official said the bombers — one in a vehicle and one on foot — attacked a police complex in the center of Bannu, in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province, and a police station nearby. News reports indicated that the second bomber struck as the authorities responded to the first explosion at the police compound. A hospital official said nine of the dead were police officials and six were civilians, and that many of the injured were children. The Bannu chief of police, Iqbal Marwat, was critically wounded in the attack. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the Pakistani Taliban have been tied to previous attacks in the area. – New York Times

The War

Two new documents laying out the Obama administration's defense and homeland security strategy over the next four years describe the nation's terrorist enemies in a number of ways but fail to mention the words Islam, Islamic or Islamist. The 108-page Quadrennial Homeland Security Review, made public last week by the Department of Homeland Security, uses the term "terrorist" a total of 66 times, "al Qaeda" five times and "violent extremism" or "extremist" 14 times. It calls on the U.S. government to "actively engage communities across the United States" to "stop the spread of violent extremism." Yet in describing terrorist threats against the United States and the ideology that motivates terrorists the review - like its sister document from the Pentagon, the Quadrennial Defense Review - does not use the words "Islam," "Islamic" or "Islamist" a single time. – Washington Times

Josh Gerstein reports: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has told colleagues that he’s negotiating with the White House over legislation aimed at heading off the possibility of civilian criminal trials for suspects in the 9/11 attacks, according to Congressional sources. Graham met White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel last week to discuss the issue, sources said. – Politico

Michael Mukasey writes: There was no legal or policy compulsion to treat Abdulmutallab as a criminal defendant, at least initially, and every reason to treat him as an intelligence asset to be exploited promptly. The way to do that was not simply to have locally available field agents question him but, rather, to get in the room people who knew about al-Qaeda in Yemen, people who could obtain information, check that information against other available data and perhaps get feedback from others in the field before going back to Abdulmutallab to follow up where necessary, all the while keeping secret the fact of his cooperation. Once his former cohorts know he is providing information, they can act to make that information useless. Nor is it an answer to say that Abdulmutallab resumed his cooperation even after he was warned of his rights. He did that after five weeks, when his family was flown here from Nigeria. The time was lost, and with it possibly useful information. Disclosing that he had resumed talking only compounded the problem by letting his former cohorts know that they had better cover their tracks. – Washington Post

China

[W]hile much of the rest of the world frets about Chinese cyberspying abroad, China is increasingly alarmed about the threat that the Internet poses to its security and political stability. In the view of both political analysts and technology experts here and in the United States, China’s attempts to tighten its grip on Internet use are driven in part by the conviction that the West — and particularly the United States — is wielding communications innovations from malware to Twitter to weaken it militarily and to stir dissent internally. “The United States has already done it, many times,” said Song Xiaojun, one of the authors of “Unhappy China,” a 2009 book advocating a muscular Chinese foreign policy, which the party’s propaganda department is said to promote. He cited the so-called color revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia as examples. “It is not really regime change, directly,” he said. “It is more like they use the Internet to sow chaos.” – New York Times

Harsh V. Pant writes: For some time now, China's expansionist behavior has been evident. China has been acquiring naval bases along crucial "choke points" in the Indian Ocean not only to serve its economic interests but also to enhance its strategic presence in the region. China realizes that its maritime strength will give it strategic leverage to emerge as the regional hegemon and a potential superpower…It is possible that the construction of these ports and facilities by China can be explained away on purely economic and commercial grounds, but for regional powers like the United States, Japan and India, these activities seem to be aimed at them. China's diplomatic and military efforts in the Indian Ocean seem to exhibit a desire to project power vis-a-vis competing powers in the region. China is merely following in the footsteps of other major global powers who established military bases abroad to secure their interests. The sooner the world acknowledges this, the better it will be for global stability. – Japan Times

START

The State Department said Thursday there will be no direct link between missile defenses and U.S. and Russian offensive strategic weapons cuts in the language of the nearly finished successor to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said the treaty and text of the final agreement are still being negotiated and reports that the U.S. side in the talks will link missile defenses to START are untrue. U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Beyrle stated on his Russian-language blog that the new treaty will refer to missile defenses in the text. The comment prompted reports from Moscow that the U.S. had made a concession to Russia on the issue, reports Mr. Crowley said were untrue. "As we have made clear to the Russians through this negotiation, there is no direct link between [missile defense and strategic offensive arms]," Mr. Crowley said. – Washington Times

Iraq

Iraq officially kicked off the campaign season Friday, just hours after an appeals panel banned a number of candidates from running in March nationwide elections…But in a move that was likely to raise tensions ahead of the March 7 parliamentary elections between the Shiite-led government and Sunnis who claim they are politically undermined, the appeals panel late Thursday only cleared 28 candidates out of the hundreds blacklisted over suspected ties to Saddam Hussein's regime. "The appeals were accepted either because of similarity of names or because there was not enough evidence against them," said Mudhafar al-Battat, a spokesman for the government-backed Accountability and Justice Committee, tasked with weeding out hard-core supporters of Mr. Hussein's outlawed Baath party. Mr. Battat declined to identify those candidates barred from the election. Ali al-Lami, head of the committee that drafted the blacklist, said he had been informed by the appeals panel of its decision to bar Saleh al-Mutlaq and Dhafir al-Ani, the most prominent Sunni lawmakers. MR. Mutlaq, a fierce critic of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has acknowledged he was a Baathist until the late 1970s but quit the party. Mr. Ani took the helm of the largest Sunni bloc in parliament after its moderate leader Harith al-Obeidi was assassinated in June 2009. – Associated Press

Yemen

Yemen has agreed ceasefire terms with Shia Muslim rebels, raising hopes that the six-year conflict in the north of the country may be coming to a close. Officials in Sanaa, the capital, said that the Houthi tribe behind the uprising had agreed a six-point “road map” for peace and that bilateral negotiations could begin soon if the rebels were to withdraw from their positions in the disputed Saada region to the northeast…Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement the Houthis must withdraw from their positions and reopen roads, release all prisoners, return government weapons seized during the conflict, and pledge not to invade Saudi Arabia. The conflict spilt over the border in November when rebel fighters stormed Saudi border posts, with Riyadh mounting bombing raids on Houthi positions in retaliation. – Times of London

Russia

Russian security forces said on Friday at least 20 insurgents had been killed in a gun battle in the North Caucasus region of Ingushetia, Russian news agencies reported. Local police officials said on Thursday at least 10 insurgents had been killed in clashes in the region. It was not immediately clear if the latest figures took account of the earlier deaths. Violence is growing in the patchwork of southern regions -- including Chechnya, the site of two separatist wars with Moscow since the mid-1990s, and Ingushetia -- that make up the North Caucasus. Islamist militancy overlaps with the activity of criminal groups and clan and ethnic rivalries. - Reuters

Ukraine

President Obama on Thursday congratulated Viktor F. Yanukovich on winning Ukraine’s presidential election, increasing the pressure on his opponent, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko, to concede. But Ms. Tymoshenko, making her first public appearance since losing the election on Sunday, did not say anything about bowing out, and her aides continued to charge that the voting was tainted by fraud. The White House released a statement saying that Mr. Obama had called Mr. Yanukovich, the Ukrainian opposition leader, and wished him “success in carrying out his mandate.” “This peaceful expression of the political will of Ukrainian voters is another positive step in strengthening democracy in Ukraine,” the statement said. Ukraine has been the site of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West in recent years, and Mr. Yanukovich is considered closer to the Kremlin than Ms. Tymoshenko is. Mr. Obama’s decision to congratulate Mr. Yanukovich therefore seemed a blow to any plans by Ms. Tymoshenko to contest the election. – New York Times

Americas

Seeking to ease public anger at gruesome drug violence on the U.S. border, Mexican President Felipe Calderon announced aid for the area on Thursday but was short on detail as he struggles to reinvigorate his war on drug gangs. The murders of a group of teenagers by gunmen at a high school party in Ciudad Juarez last month provoked outrage across Mexico, forcing Calderon into a new strategy of social spending to combat drug gangs. "If those deaths ... mean anything it is that we need to change after that absurd sacrifice," Calderon told a tense meeting flanked by cabinet ministers where he heard the emotional pleas of community leaders in the city across from El Paso, Texas. – Reuters

The U.S. government's disaster-assistance program has committed more than half its annual budget to help earthquake-ravaged Haiti, raising concern among humanitarian groups that programs for the needy in countries such as Sudan or Somalia could face cuts. Samuel A. Worthington, the president of InterAction, a coalition of more than 150 humanitarian groups, wrote Thursday to top officials at the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development that he was "deeply concerned about the impact" that reductions would have in other regions. Some aid groups said they have been told there probably will be no money for new programs, at least until the disaster fund gets a boost from Congress. USAID officials denied Thursday that they have ordered any cutbacks, adding that they hope they will not have to do so. But that will depend, they said, on whether their disaster fund is replenished by a supplemental spending bill that Congress is expected to take up in the next few weeks. – Washington Post

After clashing with foreign oil companies in recent years, President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela has shifted strategy and awarded contracts to Western oil companies, hoping to increase his nation’s flagging oil production and pull the country out of a sharp economic downturn. Chevron, the American oil giant, led a group of companies that won one of the concessions on Wednesday night, showing the resilience of trade ties between the nations. The United States remains the largest consumer of Venezuelan oil despite the deterioration of political relations over the last decade. Venezuela quietly began courting Western oil companies again in 2008 after nationalizing some of their assets, imposing higher royalties on them and subjecting their executives to raids by tax authorities. Even now, Venezuela is considered one of the riskiest countries in which to do business of any kind, and a number of major Western oil companies stayed out of the bidding. – New York Times

Venezuela's only television channel that remains critical of President Hugo Chavez has announced the departure of its director, a strident detractor of the government. Globovision vowed to maintain its tough editorial line as the nation's only remaining anti-Chavez channel, but declined to say why Alberto Federico Ravell was leaving. – Associated Press

Jose Cardenas writes: What is the Obama administration to do? First off, it should push the Organization of American States and its feckless Secretary General, José Miguel Insulza, to set up a special monitoring group for the upcoming election. Such a request may be a bit unusual for anything less than a presidential election, but in this case the stakes are so high if any semblance of democracy can be restored in a member country. The Obama administration should not be above repeatedly calling foul either as Chavez continues to tilt the playing field in his favor. The Bush administration learned the hard way that individual governments in the region are not going to call Chavez to account for his undemocratic behavior. Some have been bought off with promises of Venezuelan largesse, while others fear the trouble that Chavez can cause in their own countries by funding opposition forces. The administration says it wants multilateral solutions to regional problems. It can start by putting the OAS and Secretary Insulza to work. – Shadow Government

South Africa

After a day of pageantry to commemorate Mr. Mandela’s walk to freedom, Mr. Zuma strolled across a red carpet into the Parliament building in Cape Town to deliver his address. He campaigned on a platform of more jobs and improved education, but both goals have suffered setbacks. Official statistics released this week showed that the country, hard hit by the global economic crisis, lost 870,000 jobs last year, leaving over a third of the labor force unemployed or too discouraged to look for work. And results of the examinations of high school seniors showed last month that performance had declined for a sixth year in a row. In his speech, Mr. Zuma announced that the government would begin providing teachers with detailed daily lesson plans and regularly test the literacy and numerical competence of elementary school students, sharing the results with parents. He also proposed measures to get South Africa back to work, including subsidizing the costs of hiring inexperienced young workers. – New York Times

William Gumede writes: [W]hat cannot be doubted anymore is that our worse fears have come true: the ANC has lost its soul. The question now is can the party recapture its soul – and turn it to the democratic path many dreamed of was possible when Mandela walked out of Victor Verster prison 20 years ago. Many have already given up trying. The only way to do so is to overhaul the ANC root, branch and leadership, and turn it into a wholly democratic organisation. If the ANC's democratic soul cannot be recaptured, it may be better for South African society for it to break up, and for new parties to be formed from its ashes. – Guardian

Asia

Vietnam's devaluation will help shore up its currency system, but inflation and a big trade deficit mean the government has more work ahead—and that could include further devaluations and sharply higher interest rates. The Southeast Asian nation, which has seen an influx of Western investment capital in recent years, grew 5.5% in 2009, World Bank estimates show, despite the global financial crisis. But in the transition to a more urban, market-based economy, the country has struggled to keep a lid on inflation and trade and budget deficits, which in turn has put pressure on its currency. Vietnamese residents have responded by hoarding dollars and gold out of fear the currency—the dong—will become even less valuable in the future. – Wall Street Journal

Supporters of the detained Sri Lankan opposition leader Sarath Fonseka were pelted with stones and fired on with tear gas yesterday after they clashed with government activists at the country's Supreme Court. Thousands of opposition supporters angered by the arrest of their leader gathered outside the court in Colombo, where they burned life-size posters of President Mahinda Rajapaksa – the man who defeated the former general in last month's presidential election. They also smashed coconuts, following a local tradition that this would inspire divine intervention. But instead their actions were met by supporters of the government, who threw stones and chased them away. When the opposition activists fought back, said witnesses, the police intervened with tear gas. At least eight people were hurt, reported officials at local hospitals. "We were walking peacefully when we were attacked by government goons," Marina Abdeen, an opposition supporter, told the Associated Press. The opposition activists held the rally after General Fonseka, the 59-year-old former army chief, was detained by military police, who arrived en masse at his offices on Monday evening. The government has said he is being investigated for actions he took while still in uniform that could amount to conspiracy against the government. - Independent

Postscript

If you can’t stand shops filled with roses, heart-shaped boxes of chocolates, teddy bears, cards and novelty gifts, Saudi Arabia is the place to be this Valentine’s Day. The country’s feared muttawa — religious police — have launched a campaign to banish from the shelves anything that could be construed as a romantic gift. As Sunday approaches, they have been patrolling the shops and posting warnings in local newspapers to remind traders that anyone caught violating the ban will be punished. – Times of London

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Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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