Colombia: Not-So-New Political Scenario
Post-Uribe Era: The Maybe Not-So-New Political Scenario Waiting to Debut in Colombia and Future Implications
by COHA Research Associate David Aponte
• The Uribe Legacy
• An Analysis of
the Leading Presidential Candidates and the Cross-Currents
Affecting Colombian Politics
Colombia´s political future has been radically redefined in the last several weeks because of a new scenario that has evolved thus has left out current president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, who will not be running for a third term in the Casa de Nariño. As a result, the election for Congress and for candidates of the “Partido Conservador” and “Partido Verde”, that were selected by the internal consultation of their parties (Colombia’s version of a primary), that took place on March 14th and the presidential ballots scheduled for May 30th have become the most attractive and competitive ones in recent Colombian history.
The Constitutional Court, the major judiciary body in charge of defending the values of the Constitution of 1991, declared that the referendum intended to reform Colombia’s basic document, which was meant to facilitate the indefinite reelection of an incumbent president, is inherently unconstitutional. This single decision marked a huge change in a large number of pressing issues for Bogotá, not only regarding internal politics, but also because it reaffirms the potential for fresh foreign policies, national security initiatives, differences in the public response in support or disapproval of a new administration, and the social concerns that have not exactly been a democratic cornerstone for the current government.
The Political Setting
With
barely three weeks to freely campaign after Uribe was
permanently banned from running, the whole country became a
sea of advertisements and propaganda issued by the more than
900 candidates vying for positions for both the higher and
lower chambers of the Congress and the presidency.
Speculation about the future of Uribism, both as a voting
cohort and a doctrine dominating the country, still subsists
after the recent congressional elections. Allied parties
such as Partido de la U, Partido Conservador
and the Partido de Integración Nacional (PIN),
already have garnered the majority of seats in the Senate
and the Chamber of Representatives. What remains undeniable
is that “Uribe has, even when there were doubts [that] the
Constitutional Court would endorse the re-election
referendum, continued to be the single most dominating force
in Colombian politics.”
What is the
significance of the Court’s decision?
The
Constitutional Court’s ruling invites some analysis; it
sets a major goal post for Colombian democracy as it boldly
states that the Rule of Law has not been overthrown by what
Uribe and his closest political advisors have called the
“State of Opinion.” In fact, even though the Uribe
administration received incredible approval ratings of more
than 70%, which only diminished after the scandals of the
agrarian program Agro Ingreso Seguro and the Social
Emergency decrees, the Rule of Law remained unyielding. The
“State of Opinion” doctrine argues that the will of the
people should be the only force that moves the decisions by
the government’s branches. The Court’s decision, though,
upholds regulations that the law has imposed on certain
processes specifically aimed at preserving the country’s
democracy, showing that in Colombia, collectivism that gives
exaggerated power to the executive is not possible under the
Rule of Law.
The independence shown by the Constitutional Court is a true victory for democracy in a country with such institutional problems as bedeviled Colombia, which already faces the challenges of an 8-year presidency in a State designed for a 4-year government as per the Constitution of 1991. Even if Uribism remains the most likely force to win the presidency again, at least the country will have a fresh face and the hope that this personalist coalition will fall apart without its gravitating figure in power. As El Espectador columnist, Rodrigo Urimny observed, in annulling the referendum, the Constitutional Court:
prevented a deterioration in the democratic game rules which intended to benefit the current president, through an initiative that was not genuinely popular, for it was generously supported by government contractors that overflowed the legal limits of funding. Therefore, although [it] has prevented the holding of a referendum, the decision of the Court has been deeply democratic.
The New
Congress
After the para-politics scandals during
Uribe’s second term (that largely affected the “U”
Party, which has had the most congressional seats in the
previous as well as the current legislative sessions), and
the personal decision of strong former congressmen and women
not to aspire to a new legislature (such as Gina Parody,
Gustavo Petro, Marta Lucía Ramírez, Cecilia López and
Germán Vargas), the new Congress is fresh with new faces.
Nevertheless, new faces do not necessarily mean new ideas
and the shadow of illegality still hovers over the
Capitol:
[O]ut of the 100 congressmen 14 are direct heirs of Congress who have had trouble with the law by some of the most notorious scandals of this or any political season. ‘What empowers Mafia representation in Congress is not only that choice is made, but that is part of the coalition government,’ said Claudia Lopez (Coordinator of the Mission for Electoral Observance).
The main challenge for the Congress will be to regain its legitimacy, lost after the scandals of politicians closely related to illegal war lords, both left-wing (FARC-politics) and right wing (para-politics). As a result it can move towards healing the political sanity of the country and save face internationally. When it comes to foreign investment, a respected and legitimate Congress is as important as a respected and legitimate executive. As the last report of “Transparencia por Colombia,” a respected Colombian NGO, suggested, this political institution has a very high risk of corruption, and has a 51% rating of unfavorable image among the people.
Congress has copious and diverse tasks ahead that require its hard work and commitment. In the wake of the constitutional referendum diverting attention away from political dialogue, Congress was prevented from addressing other key issues that, at the end of the day, delayed the agenda for at least a year. For instance, the important political reform that would have Congress change the procedures of elections as well as the rules to which parties are expected to adhere, was approved last year but still lacks a statute that forces political exhorted to be more transparent in their campaigns.
Paradoxically, such a reform has become a very important issue during these elections, because its legitimacy is in doubt after the PIN party won 12 seats in the Chamber of Representatives and 9 seats in the Senate. This newly created party ironically has been named as the “para-list,” due to the notorious connection between paramilitary leaders, other politicians convicted for the “para-politic” habits, and most of the party’s members. It was suspected that the party has used the patronage machinery left by former para-politics movements to achieve this surprising success. A significantly improved victim’s reparation bill is another major topic that the new legislature needs to face in the near future, and whose operations were highly criticized during the Uribe government. After giving many members of the paramilitary the opportunity to effortlessly re-enter civilian life, Uribe did not concern himself with the victims of the violence caused not only by paramilitary’s actions, but the guerillas and the state itself.
It is still too early to know how the relationship between the executive and the legislative branches will develop. It will depend on which candidates win, and which interests each party prioritizes. However, what is clear is that the right wing made itself stronger in the congressional elections, making a bleak future for progressive bills and social measures that address issues of social justice.
What would each candidate for president
bring to the table?
As soon as Uribe’s
intentions to stay in office proved impossible, a whole
range of specialists began to discuss the following: how the
campaigns were going to play out from that day forth, who
were going to be the winners and losers, if there was going
to be a second round or not, and all sorts of asseverations
about the probabilities of getting to the Casa de Nariño.
However, the ensuing media discussion has neglected the
candidates’ political positions in the wake of the
hurricane of electoral expectation caused by Uribe’s
removal from the presidential race.
It is of great importance to analyze what would happen with the direction of Colombia’s foreign policy now that Uribe will no longer be president, as well as how Colombia still could aspire to be Washington’s closest ally in the region, or not. Another major issue regards the relations involving Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador. Most of this topics are closely related to the policy of Democratic Security of Uribe, if it is subject to change would impact a large number of other issues.
Juan Manuel Santos –
Candidate for the “Partido de la U”
Juan
Manuel Santos, former Minister of Defense under Uribe, seems
to be in the most favorable position to lead in the first
round of the presidential elections on May 30th. However, it
is very unlikely that he will receive more than 50% of the
votes, which means that a second round is to be expected.
Santos claims to be the true heir of Uribe’s highly
successful Democratic Security policy, as former Agriculture
Minister Andrés Felipe Arias, the only other candidate that
claimed the same Uribe-linked title, lost the internal
consultation of the Partido Conservador to Noemí
Sanín. Santos’s party was clearly the big winner of the
legislative elections, winning 28 of the 100 seats of the
Senate (a big success considering the Senate is composed of
7 parties) as well as the majority in the Chamber of
Representatives. If the Partido Conservador (that is
the second party with the major number of seats in both
chambers) maintains its affiliation with Uribism, Santos
would not have much trouble passing bills in a Congress that
is virtually at his service, as a third party, PIN, is also
latched to Uribism.
However, this apparent leadership would need to be legitimized by Santos who is not particularly renown for being charismatic, or warm-hearted, characteristics that would be noticeably absent when contrasted against the past 8 years of the nation’s most charismatic political figure in the last 25 years. This matter would affect not only his relationship with the nation, but also with the international community. His vision is most similar to the Uribe administration, which means that he would still try to be a close friend to the White House. Since the arrival of Obama to the presidency, Washington has revamped its relations with Colombia, which means that Santos would need to be a dedicated and public-relations minded president, to facilitate the continued growth of this special bilateral relationship. Santos has said that a social agenda needs to be improved, and that identifies with Obama’s policies within his own country. Furthermore, he has made it clear that he would address the concerns American Democrats have about human rights in Colombia, yet still maintain his belief that the “snake is still alive” (a phrase used by Uribe to refer to a still unattained military victory against left-wing guerrillas) and that he would keep the armed forces well-furnished to finish off the FARC. This discourse of his still seems to give priority to the security issue over any other.
Regarding foreign relations, the most important problem if Santos becomes president would still be the relationship with Ecuador and Venezuela, Colombia’s neighbors and historic trade partners. The potential dynamics between Santos, Hugo Chávez and Rafael Correa make Uribe and the Venezuelan and Ecuadorian presidents almost look like lovers. Some of the most difficult issues between Colombia and its neighbors occurred while Santos was Defense Minister. For example, after the operation of Colombia’s armed forces in the border Ecuadorian province of Sucumbíos, where Raúl Reyes (then the number two of the FARC leadership) was killed, Rafael Correa’s government ordered the arrest of Santos. In addition to this, the Jaque Operation in which Colombia used actors to portray Venezuelan reporters from TeleSur created much tension between the two countries as did the lease agreement signed between the U.S. and Colombia for the use of military bases, as Chávez and Correa argued that U.S. presence was threatening the sovereignty of countries in the region. If Santos were elected, the reconstruction of these relations would be more difficult and could take a distinct approach from that of the previous administration.
Noemí Sanín – Candidate for
the “Partido Conservador”
On March 14,
Noemí Sanín won the primary elections in a close
competition with Andrés Felipe Arias (by only a 1.7%).
After a problematic counting process, on Saturday March 20,
she was recognized as the only candidate for the party of
blue awnings.
Sanín’s experience in the political arena is comparable to her ability in international affairs, as she has considerable experience in this matter; she was ambassador to Venezuela in 1991, twice to the United Kingdom from 1995-96 and 2008-10 respectively, and once to Spain from 2002-07. She also served as Foreign Minister from 1992-94. Her undeniable international visibility is an attribute that could prove indispensible in her campaign. Her nature as a charismatic woman, compounded with her close relationship with American politicians, is likely to sustain Colombia’s and Washington’s interests and interdependence in the near future. She is a strong defender of Uribe’s security and investment policies, both closely related to the U.S., so her policies will most likely reassure Washington that Bogotá remains a strong ally.
This same ability would also aid in the effort to reconstruct the relationship between Colombia and its neighbors, as she has proven to be a diligent politician in this respect, “in 1991 (when she was Ambassador in Caracas), she was called Colombia’s ‘secret weapon’ because of her role in the improvement of the bilateral relations.” In an interview with El Tiempo’s political editor Nelson Parra, Sanín suggested that both neighbors must be part of the solution and not the problem, and she hopes to reconstruct a healthy relationship, supported by strong international protocols in order to prosecute terrorism. She has better chances than Santos to improve relations with Venezuela and Ecuador, but still is a great supporter of the military agreement with the U.S. and criticized Chávez and Correa for their alleged support of illegal armed Colombian groups.
Even though her party is
part of the Uribist coalition, her candidature will probably
be more independent than that of the former agriculture
minister, if he had won. This is because experts, like
María Jimena Duzán, assured that Arias would ally with
Juan Manuel Santos while Sanín would prefer to be more
competitive. Of course, as is the case of Santos, she has a
history of disloyalties that allow many to believe that her
affiliation with Uribe might change as she finds herself
closer to being the first woman president of the country.
She was a fierce critic of Uribe during his first election
in 2002, until he offered her the position of ambassador to
Spain. Now that the conservatives have a strong figure and
veteran politician as their leader, who has significant
electoral experience, they are very eager to be back at the
Casa de Nariño. However, Arias still remains very important
to her, as his support in the consultancy would virtually
assure her presence in the run-off after the May 30th
elections. He has not shown as strong support to the
Conservative candidate and his many supporters prefer Santos
because they feel that he is closer to
Uribe.
Rafael Pardo – Candidate of the
“Partido Liberal”
As one of the eternal
candidates of the red awnings party, Rafael Pardo is
presently not one of the favorites for the presidency. Even
though, he has a strong track record and is respected as an
intelligent politician, he is considered to lack effective
communication skills with the electorate. As it stands,
nothing is certain in this election, so Pardo might do well,
if he is able to acquire sufficient votes to secure his
position in the second round. Possible alliances with other
candidates like Germán Vargas Lleras or even the leftist
Gustavo Petro may yet provide him a welcome boost if the
opposition and politically neutral candidates find
themselves overwhelmed by the heavy machinery of
Uribism.
Many politicians close to the current government thought that the recent results of Pardo’s party in the parliamentary election were a disgrace, since they were formerly the dominant party in the country. In this election they only ranked third in Congress with 17 and 36 in the upper and lower houses respectively. However, Pardo himself emphasized that the results were actually very good for a party that had been out of the presidency for 12 years. The liberals still have strong presence in the northernmost Caribbean coast regions which guarantees at least a million votes of the two million votes required to go on to the second round. Those votes will depend on how he handles winning the “opinion vote,” and whether he decides to enter into a coalition.
Pardo’s most important policies and proposals are directed to social aspects that, he believes, have worsened in the Uribe years. The liberal candidate believes that security is important, but not as much as equality and increased employment opportunities issues that the Colombian government must address desperately if it is to balance the South American country’s ever increasing social and economic disparities (Colombia is the second most unequal country in the most unequal region in the world). Although security is not the most important issue on his agenda, Pardo’s proposal for this topic is more comprehensive than that of the present government. He recommends focusing on diminishing violence in cities, a weak point in the last two years of the Uribe administration. This broader policy towards security is one of the reasons why he feels that a change must be made regarding the foreign policy of Colombia. He believes the country is too dependent on the U.S., and specifically the Republican Party, because of its approach towards violence in Colombia which is focused mainly on the FARC guerilla and the war against drugs.
Pardo constantly has referred to the mistake made by Uribe when he decided to turn his back on Brazil’s efforts to create a strong regional bloc in UNASUR, in which Colombia now participates grudgingly. He coordinates his domestic proposals with his foreign policy goals, saying that as Colombia’s main problem is inequality, regional policies that are the result of forums in which the rhetoric is rendered into actions are absolutely indispensable for Bogotá. Still, the U.S. is very important for Colombia, but as his ideas regarding drug war policies, internal conflict, and regional matters are so different from Uribe’s, his election would change the relationship with Washington dramatically.
Pardo’s vision about the regional conflict with Colombia’s neighbors is one of deep pacifism, so much so that some consider it as almost naïve. The liberal candidate advocates a more active and effective cooperation among the neighboring governments. Pardo believes leaders have a political responsibility and that they must make an effort to cooperate for the sake of each individual nation. Chávez and Correa might agree with these assumptions, but their actions in the last few years show to Pardo that they use insults and conflictive attitudes towards Colombia to generate political and social unity within their own populations. Even worse, if their suspected support of illegal groups are confirmed it would prove a complete lack of cooperation with the legitimate state of Colombia. If victorious, Pardo would at least have the opportunity to bring a new paradigm to the relations with these very important countries for Bogotá.
Gustavo Petro
– Candidate for the “Polo
Democrático”
The candidate of the only
left-wing party in the country, Gustavo Petro, is not very
likely to make it to the second round due to the many
difficulties that his party has encountered in the last
year. Because of the disunity within Polo Democrático,
Petro’s few supporters tend to support him, as an
individual, rather than the party itself. After he lost the
party nomination in September of 2009, Carlos Gaviria, the
candidate with the second most votes in the last
presidential election, has shown little support for Petro in
this campaign. In addition, the unpopular administration of
Samuel Moreno as Mayor of Bogotá also affected the good
advances that the “Polo Democrático” has
experienced since its creation. Petro is respected as a very
clever politician so, even though he is not expected to win,
no one is willing to write him off. If he decides to endorse
another candidate, he might be a very important ally.
Of all the current contenders, Petro has been perhaps the greatest critic of Uribe’s government. The “Polo Democrático” candidate has accused the current president of running a mafia-style government in which the dirty money of right-wing paramilitaries has fueled a large part of the executive’s and legislative’s policies and bills; Petro was the architect outing the scandal of “para-politics.” The government has criticized the Polo candidate of being an ally of the FARC and being too soft regarding the violence that haunts the country. As one would expect from the political left, his proposals support democratization of land ownership, access to credit by poor people along with public banking and opportunities to acquire quality education, as he believes that the policies against the FARC have left behind the social issues. Petro has been unclear, though, about his position in the fight against this terrorist organization. He has been a critic of Plan Colombia and the policy of Democratic Security because of episodes such as the killing of young civilians by the army to use them as fake guerrilla victims, a scandal known as “false positives.” In the first candidates’ debate on Colombian national television, Petro argued that the main issue about FARC is not its military defeat, but the social inequalities in the rural areas that permit the perpetuation of violence.
Petro has been clear about his views on the trajectory of Colombia’s future foreign policy and how it must change. He asserted that the Uribe administration did not have a real policy and believes that the country has a golden opportunity to become the bridge between the U.S. (who needs to reconstruct its policies towards Latin America) and the other countries in the region whose interests still remain influenced by Washington. His ideas appear viable, as he wants to reactivate Colombia’s leadership in the Andean Pact, which he believes Uribe neglected due to his obsession with the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. Unlike Pardo, he does not prefer to be a part of Brazil’s initiative, but rather proposes a Colombian leadership in the Andean region. However, Washington might not consider Petro a close ally, as his policies toward several contentious issues, including internal conflict, trade agreement and drug trafficking differ significantly from Washington’s.
One of Petro’s most interesting
suggestions is that the left has the responsibility to make
Chávez understand that his grievances against Uribe are
also against the Colombian society, and he is the only
candidate that had a direct personal connection to the
Venezuelan president. This clearly would give him the
opportunity to improve the relations between the two
countries, if he were elected president. However, most
Colombians do not find this a positive characteristic, as
the strong campaign in the country against Venezuela’s and
Ecuador’s presidents has polarized the social
environment.
Germán Vargas Lleras –
Candidate for “Cambio Radical”
Germán
Vargas, president of the “Cambio Radical” party
(once part of the Uribist coalition), was a strong candidate
for the presidency only a few months ago. Today, after a big
loss in the Congressional election due to the switch of some
senators to the “U” Party and the emergence of new
strong candidates that bring fresh air to traditional muddy
politics, such as the now allied Antanas Mockus and Sergio
Fajardo, Vargas has a difficult path ahead of him if he
wants to become the next president. Despite this, he is
still a very experienced politician with heavy machinery
behind him that could get him plenty of votes; he already
has looked into an alliance with Rafael Pardo.
Unsurprisingly, the Liberal declined the offer, but as the
race becomes even more contentious as May approaches, this
could soon change.
The president of “Cambio Radical” is not politically dissimilar from Uribe. The difference between their respective policies is mostly based on the clash between the two personalities when the referendum for the second reelection was first presented. Vargas Lleras’ program for national politics is being accepted even by some of his opponents, presenting a strong government plan that “embodies the principles of Uribe’s Democratic Security strategy but with tremendous emphasis on social programs,” stated Vargas himself in an interview with El Tiempo last January.
Vargas Lleras’ weakness emerges from broad proposals for Colombia’s foreign policy. The most innovative thing he proposed is to change the institutional structure of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, so it once again assumes leadership as the main actor in Colombia’s international politics. But his thematic agenda is far from being as complex as the ones proposed by his rivals. Vargas presented it in the eastern city of Cúcuta on March 16th of 2010. The presidential hopeful talked about deepening Colombia’s relation with the U.S., as well as trying to reintegrate with the Andean Community and fostering closer relations with Europe to act as a counterweight for the U.S. in current foreign policy matters. Also, he explained the importance of cooperating more with the Asia-Pacific region and strengthening multilateral forums, such as UNASUR. These all sound similar to Uribe’s proposals early in his tenure, which means that Vargas Lleras would maintain very similar, if not the same policies, as Uribe has now.
Regarding neighboring countries, Vargas Lleras is in a good position to negotiate with Chávez, as his relationship with both, the Venezuelan leader and Correa, is much better than that of Santos. But as long as he agrees with the Democratic Security policies and the special relation with the U.S., the reservations between the three countries, as well as the mistrust, is likely to remain.
Antanas Mockus – Candidate
for the “Partido Verde”
Antanas Mockus,
a respected academic, was the winner in the internal
consultation of his party where he ran against other two
former Mayors of Bogotá, Enrique Peñalosa and Luis Eduardo
“Lucho” Garzón. The surprise about this result is not
the fact that Mockus won, but the electoral phenomenon that
the party’s campaign caused. The Partido Verde
consultation received more votes than anticipated, and they
even won seats in the Senate and the Chamber of
Representatives. Their party’s candidature resulted in an
atypical outcome, as they worked as a team and valued each
other’s ideas and critiques in the public
arena–something that was refreshing, especially for young
students from all over the country. Before the elections,
the “Partido Verde” did not seem to have a strong
backing as its candidates used only very few advertisements
and were very focused in the country’s capital. Their
success has given Partido Verde a new position in the
political map of presidential elections, and today, Mockus
looks like the candidate with whom all others want to ally
themselves with.
In early April, the independent candidate and former mayor of Medellín, Sergio Fajardo, decided to support Mockus in his pursuit of the presidency, accepting the latter’s proposal of being the vice-presidential candidate. Fajardo plummeted in polls after the massive defeat of the “Convergencia Ciudadana,” the political movement that he was supporting in the congressional elections. This lost him a lot of votes in the public opinion polls and forced him to get closer to Mockus, as the latter today is the most important electoral phenomenon. Both political leaders, Fajardo and Mockus, are seen as the hope for political renewal in the country, and joining together seemed like the smartest move to try to compete with Santos and Sanín towards reaching a second round. The former mayors of Medellín and Bogotá are very well-known in their respective cities, and dragging in the two biggest urban centers of the country to their campaign gives their candidature a much stronger presence.
No one doubts the
capability of Mockus as an academic, but his weakness seems
to be precisely that his proposals tend to be very abstract
and at times preciously idealistic. However, he is known for
being the person that changed Bogotá into a cosmopolitan
and educated city through his ideas about “citizen
culture,” in which he empowered the citizenry and made
them responsible for the city through projects such as the
“carrot hour,” by which he reduced drunk driving and
violence related to alcohol. He has two main principles:
“with education everything is possible” and “build
over what was already built.”
Mockus’ proposals are
directed to change the way in which politics are done, and
how the leader relates to the country’s citizens.
Meritocracy is a cornerstone of his government proposals,
along with the total annihilation of corruption. When Mockus
was asked about Uribe’s successful Democratic Security
strategy, he said that it already is dried out, and what
follows is the “Democratic Legality,” meaning the
empowering of the justice structure rather than the military
structure that has been the current administration’s basic
approach. As for his economic and social policies, he bases
them on the ideal of a total elimination of
corruption.
The Partido Verde candidate’s proposal regarding Bogotá’s problems with Venezuela and Ecuador is to create a greater sense of interdependence among the nations, giving special attention to nearby South American countries and the Caribbean, similar to the 1991 Constitution, which expresses the ideal of working toward regional unity. This implies that if he would be ready to sacrifice his country’s relationship with the U.S. to a certain extent, Colombia could benefit more from regional integration.
Conclusion
Colombia’s
political culture is waiting for the results of a very
active electoral competition. The changes taking place right
now are going to affect the government’s most important
leadership categories, ones that have been in place for the
last 8 years. The extent of these changes will depend on the
dynamics involving the newly elected Congress and
Colombia’s next president. For now, the world is awaiting
the outcome of the most crowd-arresting and memorable
elections that have befallen the country –because of the
uncertainty of the winner and the number of possible
outcomes on the horizon for the May 30th ballot, when the
first round of voting takes place.
A likely result is that Juan Manuel Santos will be one of the candidates in the second round run-off, but this could change suddenly, as occurred in 2002, when an unknown Álvaro Uribe arose meteorically in the last months of the electoral contest to become the first president elected in a first round.
The intricacies of political alliances are only starting, and every candidate has his own particular strengths and preferred path to victory, so any of them could prove to be the person who will be sworn in at the Casa de Nariño on August 7th. Petro and Vargas Lleras seem to be the ones with the least chance. Santos, Sanín and Mockus have the best shot, which means it is likely that relations with Venezuela are not going to improve substantially and the U.S. is still going to be a crucial actor for Colombia’s foreign and internal interests.
The best thing about the electoral competition is not only who is going to win, but that it is actually happening: that there is going to be a new head of state, and that democracy is still alive, although not necessarily well in Colombia. Uribe will leave office with an abundance of critics, but also he will leave as the most popular president in history, and that is a fact no one can deny. Whether his legacy will be one that rejects or validates the evaluations of his opposition does not necessarily matter at this point. What does is that on May 30th Colombia will have a new leader to assess and judge, and to continue to ignore or finally deal with some of its fundamental issues.
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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research
Associate David Aponte
Posted 06 Apr
2010
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