FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

August 6 2010
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Afghanistan/Pakistan

Obama administration officials fear that a move by Afghan President Hamid Karzai to assert control over U.S.-backed corruption investigations might provoke the biggest crisis in U.S.-Afghan relations since last year's fraud-riddled election and could further threaten congressional approval of billions of dollars in pending aid. – Washington Post

Rep. Frank R. Wolf, Virginia Republican and a member of the House Appropriations Committee, calls for the creation of an "Afghanistan-Pakistan Study Group," saying there is an urgent need to bring "fresh eyes" to the U.S. mission in Afghanistan. – Washington Times

Read Congressman Wolf’s letter to President Obama here.

NATO officials acknowledged preliminary reports that four to a dozen or more civilians were killed in a coalition airstrike Thursday in Nangarhar Province. Afghan accounts put the civilian deaths as high as 32. – New York Times

The U.S. Army joined efforts Thursday to rescue and provide assistance to some of the 4 million people affected by flooding that continues to cause massive devastation as it spreads across Pakistan. – Washington Post

Pakistan began evacuating half a million people from flood-risk areas in the south on Thursday as the overall number hit by the country's worst floods in living memory rose to more than four million. - Telegraph

The demise of Jalalabad's music shops is being seen as a shocking early warning of the Taliban's rising influence over one of the country's most important cities. Jalalabad used to be known for its good security, but there has been an uncharacteristic surge in bomb attacks and regular rocket assaults. - Guardian

Pakistan's main opposition leader has said the country has been let down by President Asif Ali Zardari more than David Cameron's remarks linking the country with terrorism. - Telegraph

Prime Minister David Cameron met President Asif Ali Zardari on Thursday at the start of talks in which he was expected to pledge Britain's support for Pakistan as the two countries try to repair a diplomatic row. - Reuters

A leak of thousands of classified U.S. military documents has damaged the ability of foreign forces to gain the support of Afghans against the Taliban, a British military spokesman said on Thursday. - Reuters

Laura Rozen reports: Cameron Munter, most recently the political-military advisor to outgoing U.S. ambassador to Iraq Chris Hill and the former U.S. ambassador to Serbia, is a top candidate to become the next envoy to Pakistan, several current and former U.S. officials say. - Politico
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Iran

A prominent Iranian human-rights lawyer, Mohamad Mostafaei, has fled to Turkey and applied for asylum after Iranian authorities issued a warrant last week for his arrest and detained his wife and brother-in-law. – Wall Street Journal

A new poll shows that the percentage of the Arab world that thinks a nuclear-armed Iran would be good for the Middle East has doubled since last year and now comprises the majority. – Washington Times

Iran's president told the leaders of Aghanistan and Tajikistan [yesterday] that the three neighbors could provide a counterweight to NATO in Asia once foreign troops exit the region. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

As Iran and world powers prepare for new nuclear talks, letters from Tehran's envoys to top international officials and shared with the Associated Press suggest major progress is unlikely, with Tehran combative and unlikely to offer any concessions. – Associated Press

Bill Roggio reports: The US Treasury department has added four Iranian Qods Force commanders to its list of specially designated global terrorists, two of whom are charged with directly providing support for the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan – Long War Journal

Editorial: The risk now is that the success of the sanctions so far will lure the Administration into dropping some of them in exchange for another round of temporizing and inevitably useless negotiations with Tehran. On Tuesday, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said the Administration sensed "that there may well be a willingness on the part of Iran to enter into the kind of dialogue that we have long sought." He can be sure the mullahs will do their best to make the U.S. pay dearly for the pleasure of their company. Better to double down on sanctions now. – Wall Street Journal Europe

FPI Director Robert Kagan writes: The White House called in a small group of journalists this week to listen to President Obama and his top advisers give a briefing on the state of the sanctions regime against Iran. Others at the meeting have described it as "unusual," but I don't know why – Washington Post
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Middle East

Egyptian American human-rights activist and democracy campaigner Saad Eddin Ibrahim, who spent three years in self-imposed exile following intense pressure from the Egyptian government, has returned to Cairo. – Baghdad and Beyond

Iraq has been through hell since Aziz was last seen in public, days before Baghdad fell in April 2003, toppling Hussein and the totalitarian Ba'athist regime that Aziz had helped lead for 30 years. In his first face-to-face interview since then, Aziz seemingly longed for the old days, while at the same time calling on the US president, Barack Obama, not to "leave Iraq to the wolves". - Guardian

Barbara Slavin reports: President Obama has sent a letter to Iraq's top Shiite Muslim cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, urging him to prevail upon Iraq's squabbling politicians to finally form a new government, an individual briefed by relatives of the reclusive religious leader said Thursday. – Foreign Policy

Josh Rogin reports: The recent outbreak of violence on the Israel-Lebanon border is renewing concerns in Washington about the wisdom of supplying arms to the Lebanese Armed Forces – The Cable

Michael Oren writes: Summer is traditionally a time of war in the Middle East. This summer, however, might well prove the reverse -- the crucial junction toward peace. Israel stands at this intersection prepared to defend itself but also ready to make the sacrifices and hazard the risks to end the conflict definitively. The line has indeed been drawn in the Middle Eastern sand. The coming weeks may show which way it will shift. – Washington Post
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China/Taiwan

China’s growth is slowing from double-digit rates to around 8% as the government dials back its extraordinary economic-stimulus policies to more normal settings, a new poll by The Wall Street Journal shows. – Wall Street Journal

China's new anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) will be deployed at the Second Artillery Corps' new missile base in Guangdong Province in southeastern China, if a new report issued by Washington-based Project 2049 Institute is correct. – Defense News

U.S. naval planners are scrambling to deal with what analysts say is a game-changing weapon being developed by China: an unprecedented carrier-killing missile called the Dong Feng 21D that could be launched from land with enough accuracy to penetrate the defenses of even the most advanced moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 900 miles. – Associated Press

The U.S. will arm Taiwan with two frigates to help the island boost its defense capabilities against China, according to reports Aug. 5. The U.S. government has notified Taiwan of the sale at a price of $40 million of two Perry-class frigates about to be retired from the U.S. Navy, Taipei's Apple Daily said, citing a defense ministry source. - AFP

China has been accused of exploiting a global fund set up to fight Aids, malaria and tuberculosis. The country is the fourth largest recipient, despite becoming the world’s second largest economy. - Telegraph

China may need to replace more than half of its housing stock in the next 20 years, a researcher at the housing ministry said in remarks published on Friday. - Reuters

Rebiya Kadeer writes: China's policies toward its ethnic minorities are clearly failing to resolve local tensions. In East Turkestan, the Chinese government has not only ignored the voices of the Uighur people crying out for change, it has also actively moved to silence them. Unless international pressure is brought to bear, the Uighur people will quietly slip into the history books. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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The War

Federal authorities unsealed terrorism-related charges Thursday against 14 people accused of providing funding and recruits to a militant group in Somalia with ties to al-Qaeda, part of an expanding U.S. effort to disrupt what Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. called a "deadly pipeline" of money and fighters to al-Shabab. – Washington Post

Laura Rozen reports: Investigators from the United Arab Emirates have determined that a Japanese oil tanker damaged in the Straits of Hormuz last month was struck by an explosive-filled boat in an act of terrorism, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported Friday. - Politico
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Defense/Wikileaks

The Pentagon demanded on Thursday that WikiLeaks “do the right thing” and remove from its Web site tens of thousands of classified documents about the war in Afghanistan, and return to the military thousands of others that it had not yet made public. – New York Times

Online whistle-blower WikiLeaks has posted a huge encrypted file named "Insurance" to its website, sparking speculation that those behind the organization may be prepared to release more classified information if authorities interfere with them. – Associated Press

A protest filed by U.S. Aerospace alleging the U.S. Air Force unfairly rejected its bid for a multibillion-dollar aerial tanker contract will not force the Defense Department to delay a contract decision slated for this fall, says DoD spokesman Geoff Morrell. – Defense News

The Army will soon select as many as three winners in the competition for a $40 billion ground combat vehicle program that is sure to receive close scrutiny from members of Congress. – The Hill
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Obama Administration

The Senate unanimously approved the nomination of retired Gen. James Clapper as Director of National Intelligence late Thursday just before adjourning for a five-week recess. – The Hill
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Russia/Europe

Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin on Thursday banned all exports of grain after millions of acres of Russian wheat withered in a severe drought, driving up prices around the world and pushing them to their highest level in two years in the United States. – New York Times

Gunmen strode into the Eastern Fairy Tale Cafe in the southern Russian city of Nazran on Wednesday afternoon and opened fire with automatic weapons on two police officials, Russia’s Investigative Committee announced. Dead on the spot was Ibragim D. Yevloyev, a police official who was involved in a notorious killing two years ago. It was a violent coda to a case that left behind a residue of disenchantment with the justice system. Mr. Yevloyev, 33, had confessed to fatally shooting an opposition leader, Magomed Y. Yevloyev, in the head while he was being driven to police headquarters for questioning. (The two men shared a last name but were not related.) – New York Times
Scotland released the convicted Lockerbie bomber from prison in August 2009 on the grounds he likely had three months to live, even though there was no consensus among specialists treating his prostate cancer that his prognosis was so dire, according to publicly available documents and people familiar with the case. – Wall Street Journal

Geert Wilders, the anti-Muslim politician who has campaigned for a tax on head scarves and a ban on the Koran, seemed poised Thursday to emerge as a prominent player in a new minority government in the Netherlands. – New York Times

Bronislaw Komorowski took the oath of office as Poland's new president on Friday and vowed to build national unity, but the man he beat for the top job boycotted the ceremony in a sign of enduring political tension. - Reuters
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Japan

The U.S. will for the first time send a representative to attend Japan's annual memorial marking America's atomic bombing of Hiroshima, in a move that could strengthen U.S. ties with Japan but one that also carries political risk for the Obama administration. – Wall Street Journal

Leslie Forgach writes: The DPJ is on the right track in charting a defense strategy in line with regional realities and alliance objectives. The U.S. should take advantage of it. – AEI’s Center for Defense Studies
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Turtle Bay

Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary General is being sued by a lawyer for sexual and racial discrimination after he repeatedly blocked his appointment to a key post. - Telegraph
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Missile Defense

Lockheed Martin and Raytheon announced Aug. 5 that they will work together to compete for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) development and sustainment contract. – Defense News
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Kyrgyzstan

The authorities in Kyrgyzstan have arrested an opposition leader and more than 20 others on charges of plotting a coup, President Roza Otunbaeva said, after troops fired tear gas and stun grenades in the capital, Bishkek, to disperse around 2,000 of his supporters. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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Southeast Asia

Some 1.2 million of the faithful are now on a government waiting list to go to Mecca, filling this country’s annual quota through the next six years. But if the rapidly lengthening list is a testament to Indonesia’s growing devotion, it has also become a source of one of its perennial problems: corruption. – New York Times

On a stage in a muddy soccer field in Thailand's rural heartlands, an opposition leader declared to thousands he would bring back toppled premier Thaksin Shinawatra from exile if his party is voted back into power. - Reuters
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Africa

Kenyans overwhelmingly approved a new constitution that promises to address the core problems of governance, such as corruption and tribalism, that have plagued this country throughout its post-colonial history. – Washington Post

Many of Africa’s leaders have spent part of their summer shuttling between capitals, congratulating one another on 50 years of independence. One capital they will not be visiting together is Washington. – New York Times

Chris Harnisch writes: Al Kata’ib’s first broadcast reveals much about al Shabaab’s global outlook and goals: it hopes to frighten AMISOM into leaving Somalia and then create a haven for international terrorists within Somalia. – AEI’s Critical Threats Project
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Americas

Music, not politics, made Wyclef Jean a household name in Haiti and a multimillion-record-selling international star who has always proclaimed his Haitian origins. That was before he announced that he would run for president of Haiti. – New York Times

Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Wednesday delivered an uncommonly blunt and dispiriting assessment of the broad sway held by violent drug traffickers throughout the besieged country. – Los Angeles Times

Mexican president, Felipe Calderón has said that he supports a debate on the legalisation of drugs after new figures showed that 28,000 people had been killed in cartel wars. - Telegraph

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said on Thursday he may not accept a newly nominated U.S. ambassador to Caracas who sharply criticized the South American nation's socialist government and its armed forces. - Reuters

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Announcements

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Events

Mexico in the Global World (en Espanol)
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
August 11
Russia's Peacetime Demographic Crisis
Hudson Institute
August 12

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Fitzpatrick
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
August 16

Homeland Security 2020: Maritime Security
Heritage Foundation
August 23

Homeland Security 2020: Science and Technology
Heritage Foundation
August 24

The Economic Element of National Power
Institute for National Security Studies
August 24-25

Homeland Security 2020: Working with the Private Sector
Heritage Foundation
August 25

Homeland Security 2020: Cybersecurity
Heritage Foundation
August 26

Homeland Security 2020: State and Local Efforts
Heritage Foundation
August 27

The National Guard and Reserves
Center for a New American Security
September 7

Previewing the September 26 Venezuelan Elections
Hudson Institute
September 15

The Future of US-Indian Relations
Center for a New American Security
October 20
The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

ENDS

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