FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

August 11, 2010

Iraq

As the last U.S. combat troops prepare to leave Iraq this month, the State Department is struggling to implement an expanded mission that it has belatedly realized it might not be able to afford. – Washington Post

The outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Iraq said Tuesday that Iraqi security forces will continue to rely heavily on American funding as the U.S. troop drawdown accelerates, forcing them to take on more responsibility. – Washington Post

Baghdad's traffic police have a hard enough job as it is, what with blistering summer temperatures and the generally unruly behavior of motorists in Iraq's often-gridlocked capital. Their job has just become a lot harder. In the last week, 11 of their number have been killed and more than two dozen injured in a sudden surge of attacks in different parts of the city, making it clear that traffic police are being deliberately targeted. – Los Angeles Times

Violent militant groups are seeking to fill the vacuum created by Iraq's stalled political process amid a drastic reduction of United States troops based in the country, a senior American military commander has warned. Brigadier General Ralph Baker, deputy commander of U.S. forces in central Iraq, said this week the failure of Iraq's squabbling politicians to form a government had increased the prospects of an upsurge in violence and inter-communal strife. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Al-Qaida is attempting to make a comeback in Iraq by enticing scores of former Sunni allies to rejoin the terrorist group by paying them more than the monthly salary they currently receive from the government, two key US-backed militia leaders have told the Guardian. - Guardian

Analysis: The reality in Iraq may defy [the President’s 2012] deadline, because many American and Iraqi officials deem the American presence to be in each nation’s interest – New York Times
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Afghanistan/Pakistan

The pace of Afghan civilian casualties accelerated sharply in the first half of this year, increasing 31%, with women and children bearing the brunt of spiraling violence, the United Nations said Tuesday. However, the Western military and its Afghan allies were responsible for a significantly smaller proportion of deaths than previously, with insurgents blamed for roughly three-quarters of the fatalities, the U.N. mission in Afghanistan said – Los Angeles Times

Afghan President Hamid Karzai will set a deadline for disbanding all private security firms, his office said on Tuesday, with the government working on a plan to avoid a security vacuum in their absence - Reuters

Monsoon rains continued to fall across Pakistan on Tuesday as the United Nations and relief groups said the scale of the flooding was straining the ability of Pakistan’s government and international aid agencies to provide aid. – New York Times

Hundreds of thousands of people fled an ever-expanding flood zone Tuesday as Pakistan's leaders called for a greater international response to what they say is the worst natural disaster in the country's history. – Washington Post

Relief efforts for flood victims in the northern Pakistani valley of Swat, where Taliban insurgents were routed a year ago in a major government counter-offensive, are being treated as a priority by the Pakistani army and supporting United States military helicopter crews, officials and residents said. – The National

Pakistani Taliban militants have urged the government to reject Western aid for victims of devastating floods, saying it would only be siphoned off by corrupt officials. - Reuters

Asif Ali Zardari writes: As I return to Pakistan, I bring back tangible results that will help the flood victims in the short run and lay the foundations for national recovery in the long run. I might have benefitted personally from the political symbolism of being in the country at the time of natural disaster. But hungry people can't eat symbols. The situation demanded action, and I acted to mobilize the world. Now the work must continue. I call on the generous people of the United States to rise to this occasion as they have countless times over the last two centuries. Pakistan welcomes your contributions, as individuals and by your government. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Middle East

It is a sign that the Iranian regime’s use of fear to silence domestic critics may be weakening when one of its most influential hard-line clerics is publicly ridiculed. – The National

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is digging mass graves for American soldiers in preparation for a war over its nuclear programme, according to a former senior commander. - Telegraph

Iran will mass produce replicas of the Bladerunner 51, often described as the world's fastest boat, and equip them with weapons to be deployed in the Gulf, a top commander said Aug. 10. - AFP

Iran, reacting to the cutoff of U.S. aid to the Lebanese military, told Lebanese officials Tuesday that it would make up the potential loss. – Los Angeles Times

The United Nations set up a tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri in an effort to deter future violence in Lebanon. But many in the country now fear indictments in the case could trigger a new political crisis or even sectarian bloodshed. – Washington Post

For weeks, the Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has claimed that Israel was behind the 2005 assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, but the evidence he supplied in a nationally televised news conference this week failed to entirely persuade the Lebanese public and politicians. – The National

Last week's incident that killed an Israeli officer, two Lebanese soldiers and a Lebanese journalist after Lebanese forces fired across the border at Israeli troops has prompted a change in Israeli policy. Until now, the two militaries maintained fair working relations, despite an increase in Lebanese aggressiveness noted recently. But last week's incident was the last straw for the IDF, now seeing its northern counterpart in a new light. From now on, reported Ynetnews Tuesday, new operational procedures are in place and soldiers will respond more forcefully to any incident. – Baghdad and Beyond

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Israel

Israeli strategic planners paint a future for the Middle East as one that is shifting rapidly as a result of the introduction of advanced weaponry, refined tactics by non-state military forces, unstable governments and the strengthening of what has been dubbed the “radical axis.” – Aviation Week

Israel's most populated area, Tel Aviv, will be hit by rockets in any future war, a senior official said on Tuesday in rare remarks reflecting the limitations of U.S.-sponsored defenses - Reuters

The Obama administration is optimistic that the Palestinian Authority will return to direct talks with Israel after nearly two years of shunning face-to-face negotiations. – Washington Times

Israel's inquiry into a naval raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in May has raised the question of who bears responsibility for the deadly outcome, which drew international condemnation and compelled Israel to ease its embargo of the Palestinian enclave. – Washington Post

The Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, said on Tuesday that Israel’s leaders were aware of the possibility that the military interception of a flotilla bound for Gaza in late May could turn violent, although lower level military officials had said at the time that the soldiers were expecting only passive resistance. – New York Times

The success of the UN international panel investigating Israel’s deadly raid of a Gaza-bound ship was thrown into doubt as it held its first meeting after Israel threatened to pull out of the inquiry. – Financial Times

Turkey and Israel clashed again yesterday as the Turkish foreign minister condemned the Israeli prime minister’s claim that Ankara had sought a confrontation over an aid flotilla sailing to Gaza. – The National

Israel should admit sole responsibility for the killing of nine activists during a raid on a Gaza aid flotilla, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Tuesday. - Reuters
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Russia/Europe

Public trust in the ruling tandem of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has dropped to record lows since January, according to three new polls. – Moscow Times

An ongoing tussle over the Khimki forest is raising fears that media freedoms are in jeopardy, with the police pressuring journalists into collaborating or revealing their sources of information, media freedom activists said Monday. – Moscow Times

Ariel Cohen writes: To roll back the Kremlin's growing regional influence, Washington should expand its political-military cooperation with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus; lift the de facto weapons embargo on Georgia; and engage in meaningful efforts in the realms of energy, security and good governance. Washington should explore sales of Patriot missiles and modern military equipment to Azerbaijan; boost support for the Nabucco and trans-Caspian gas pipelines in coordination with European capitals; and promote greater transparency, democracy and the rule of law in the region. The Obama Administration, in short, needs to reset its Russian reset policy to protect America's interests in Eurasia. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

As if things in Russia were not looking sufficiently apocalyptic already, with 100-degree temperatures and noxious fumes rolling in from burning peat bogs and forests, there is growing alarm here that fires in regions coated with fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster 24 years ago could now be emitting plumes of radioactive smoke. – New York Times

Muscovites are dying from extreme heat and smoke faster than their bodies can be stored, cremated or buried, and Russians are worried the death toll could be far higher than the official count - Reuters

Strong winds cleared the toxic smoke from raging wildfires that has choked Moscow for three weeks on Wednesday, but weather forecasters warned that polluting clouds could return in 24 hours - Reuters

Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian says the Armenian government plans to acquire long-range, precision-guided weapons for possible armed conflicts with hostile neighbors, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reports. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The new center-right Czech government looks certain to win a confidence vote in the lower house, clearing an early hurdle as it seeks to push tough budget cuts and reforms through parliament. - Reuters

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China

China’s trade surplus surged last month to its highest level in a year and a half, while real estate prices leveled off, according to government data released Tuesday that pointed to possible trade frictions with the United States and slightly slower economic growth in China. – New York Times

Their weapons are brushes; their battlefields are canvases. And here in China, where political dissent often leads to prosecution, the works of avant-garde artists can sometimes appear as threatening as a mass protest. Enter the Gao brothers, Qiang and Zhen, soft-spoken siblings who have long used startling images of Mao Tse-tung as a focal point for their sculptures, paintings and performance pieces. – Los Angeles Times

The death toll from landslides in northwestern China more than doubled Tuesday to 702 as crews in three countries across Asia struggled to reach survivors from flooding that has afflicted millions of people. – Associated Press
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Defense

Josh Rogin reports: Gates was clear that his goal is protect at least 1 percent growth in the defense budget in perpetuity, by showing Congress and the greater defense community that his department is managing its money well and therefore deserves to receive increasing budgets even though defense funding has more than doubled since 2001. – The Cable

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The War

Chris Harnisch and Katherine Zimmerman write: Efforts by al Shabaab and other al Qaeda-affiliated organizations to attract Americans into their ranks only multiply the threat posed by such groups. Al Qaeda and its associated movements appear to have made the recruitment of Americans and Westerners a top priority in their overall strategy. – The Weekly Standard Blog
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Lockerbie Bomber

Politicians in the U.S. and Scotland ratcheted up pressure on Scottish authorities to release all medical documentation underpinning last year's release of the Lockerbie bomber, a move that comes amid growing questions about the medical rationale for freeing the terminally ill prisoner. – Wall Street Journal
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Democracy and Human Rights

Jacob Mchangama writes: If the U.S. wants to be taken seriously as the leader of the free world, it must champion the cause of freedom at the U.N. by actively leading a coalition of democracies, confronting authoritarians, and shaming the spoilers. Alternatively, the U.S. could decide that human rights are best championed outside the U.N. and build a credible alternative. But sitting on the fence is tantamount to surrender. – National Review Online

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Kyrgyzstan

Acting Kyrgyz leader Roza Otunbayeva has ordered elections to be held on Oct. 10 to create the first parliamentary democracy in Central Asia, the interim government said Tuesday. - Reuters

James Kirchik reports: Two months after ethnic riots rocked southern Kyrgyzstan, the Central Asian nation that hosts an important U.S. air base, tensions between minority Uzbeks and Kyrgyz remain tense – The Weekly Standard Blog
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Africa

West Africa’s soils groan with gold, ores and gems; they yield cocoa and timber in prodigious quantities. They have also been suffused with blood spilt in pursuit of the mineral revenues that are often the only glimmer of wealth in a region beset by poverty. – Financial Times

Security forces under the command of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland in northern Somalia claimed to have defeated Shabaab and driven the al Qaeda-linked group from an area that has been described as the Tora Bora of East Africa. – Long War Journal

After years of keeping a low public profile, Algerian Salafists -- followers of an ultra-conservative brand of Islam -- are becoming bolder, laying down a challenge to a state that is firmly secular and fighting a lingering Islamist insurgency. – Reuters

Rwanda's President Paul Kagame won 93 percent of the total vote in a presidential election opponents said was marred by repression and violence, the National Election Commission said on Wednesday. - Reuters

Sudan's former north-south foes began much-delayed talks this week on how to divide wealth and power, with time running out five months before a referendum on independence for the south. - Reuters

Corruption, a small private sector and the reluctance of southern Sudanese to farm the land are stalling development just months before the region could become the world's newest country, a minister said on Tuesday. - Reuters

The Central African Republic on Tuesday pleaded with the U.N. Security Council for help as it grapples with rebels ahead of an expected withdrawal of U.N. peacekeepers stationed there and in neighboring Chad. - Reuters
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Americas

The arrival of a more moderate president in Colombia has opened the possibility, if ever so slight, of talks with Marxist rebels to end a cocaine-fueled conflict that dates to the 1960s. – Washington Post

Caracas and Bogota appeared to put an end to their short-lived diplomatic crisis Tuesday, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and new Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos held a high-profile summit at a Colombian port town. – Washington Times

Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo is determined to keep governing while he battles lymphatic cancer, a government minister and close aide to the leader told Reuters on Tuesday. - Reuters

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Events

The Status of Iraq: A Live Webchat w/Ken Pollack
Brookings Institution
August 11

Mexico in the Global World (en Espanol)
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
August 11
Russia's Peacetime Demographic Crisis
Hudson Institute
August 12

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Fitzpatrick
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
August 16

Amb. Christopher Hill on the Next Chapter in Iraq
United States Institute of Peace
August 18

Homeland Security 2020: Maritime Security
Heritage Foundation
August 23

Homeland Security 2020: Science and Technology
Heritage Foundation
August 24

The Economic Element of National Power
Institute for National Security Studies
August 24-25

Homeland Security 2020: Working with the Private Sector
Heritage Foundation
August 25

Homeland Security 2020: Cybersecurity
Heritage Foundation
August 26

Homeland Security 2020: State and Local Efforts
Heritage Foundation
August 27

Empire for Liberty
Cato Institute
September 1

Recent Shifts in North American Relations
Hudson Institute
September 2

Advancing the Interests of Women and Girls
Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 7

The National Guard and Reserves
Center for a New American Security
September 7

Demography and Women's Empowerment
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 13

Previewing the September 26 Venezuelan Elections
Hudson Institute
September 15

Egypt at the Tipping Point
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 17

Governing the Far North
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 21

A Modern Narrative for Muslim Women in the Middle East
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 30

Canadian and US Power in the 21st Century
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 6

On the Trail of the DC Sniper: Fear and the Media
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 7

The Future of US-Indian Relations
Center for a New American Security
October 20
The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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