FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

August 13, 2010
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Special Announcement

Thirty-seven former U.S. government officials, human rights and democracy advocates, and Russia experts warned Wednesday that the arrest of Russian opposition figure Boris Nemtsov at a demonstration on July 31 and other anti-democratic steps by the Russian government constitute an “alarming trend” and that continued abuses should have “serious consequences” for U.S.-Russian relations.
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Afghanistan/Pakistan

An ambitious military operation that Afghan officials had expected to be a sign of their growing military capacity instead turned into an embarrassment, with Taliban fighters battering an Afghan battalion in a remote eastern area until NATO sent in French and American rescue teams. – New York Times

Afghanistan's largest gathering of clerics, who met to discuss reconciliation with the Taliban, has called for the revival of strict Islamic law as the country seeks ways to win militants away from a growing insurgency – Reuters

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on Thursday he hoped Denmark could withdraw many of its 700 troops from Afghanistan by 2015, or even sooner. Denmark joins a growing band of NATO nations setting target dates for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, reflecting domestic unease over the rising death toll in the war against Taliban insurgents. - Reuters

The U.S. military has stopped lobbying Pakistan to help root out one of the biggest militant threats to coalition forces in Afghanistan, U.S. officials say, acknowledging that the failure to win better help from Islamabad threatens to damage a linchpin of their Afghan strategy. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistan issued new flood warnings on Thursday that could last into the weekend as government and relief agencies strained to confront the toll from a growing humanitarian disaster. – New York Times

A shipload of US Marines and helicopters arrived to boost relief efforts in flooded Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari made his first visit to victims. – Telegraph

The EU's foreign policy chief, Lady Ashton, has moved Pakistan to the top of the EU agenda after the floods, aiming to undo damage to EU-Pakistan relations by David Cameron when the prime minister accused Islamabad of exporting terrorism. - Guardian
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Middle East

Russia will begin to load fuel into the reactor at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power station on August 21, a spokesman for Russia's state atomic corporation said on Friday. - Reuters

Charlie Szrom writes: Telhami’s findings on the Arab public’s view of Iranian nuclear weapons may be accurate on the specific questions it asked on the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Before policy makers and the media take at face value the conclusion that Arabs are warming to the idea of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, however, they should consider the weight of contradictory evidence, the difficulty of polling the Middle East, and recent anecdotal evidence from the region. – The American

Christopher R. Hill, the ambassador to Iraq charged with reshaping the American role here, on Thursday ended his 16-month tenure in an anxious, unsettled country, with a military withdrawal afoot but a key task not done: the formation of a government that will inherit the country. – New York Times

Despite warnings from Iraq's top officer, the United States stuck Aug. 11 to its drawdown schedule and suggested just "dozens" of U.S. embassy troops might remain in Baghdad after 2011. - AFP

[A]mid growing protests in Congress, President Obama could soon face a dilemma: whether to abandon the institution-building effort Bush began because the army won't confront Hezbollah or continue to fund the army to maintain stability and fight other militant groups it is willing to act against. – Washington Post

A profound distrust in political parties is hampering female participation in Yemen’s struggling democracy, a study released on Tuesday suggests. – The National

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia issued a decree stating that only senior clerics are permitted to issue fatwas or Islamic religious edicts, the official SPA news agency said. – The National

Major powers are working on a statement to set the basis for direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, the European Union's foreign policy chief told EU foreign ministers on Thursday. - Reuters

Jackson Diehl writes: Does [Abbas] really want peace? Or would he, like Yasser Arafat before him, prefer the messy status quo to going down in history as the Palestinian who once and for all accepted that a Jewish state would fill two-thirds of the former Palestine? Abbas received a far-reaching offer from Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert, that met the territorial conditions he now sets. He refused to accept it even as a basis for negotiations. All through the last year, the Obama administration has disregarded that history; it has told itself and anyone who asked that Abbas was ready for a two-state settlement. In the next few days or weeks, it may find out if it was wrong. - PostPartisan

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who has dominated Turkish politics for a decade, said he would quit as leader of the AK Party should it lose a general election due by July next year. - Reuters

It has been a rotten month for Turkey’s generals. Their latest wrangle with the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party over who should be promoted during the army’s annual August review has ended in stinging defeat. - Economist
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Defense

Of all the spending cuts and budget battles the Pentagon is confronting, none is causing more angst than Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates's vow to start getting rid of generals and admirals. – Washington Post

Generals and other top officers are now expected to be city managers, cultural ambassadors, public relations whizzes and politicians as they deal with multiple missions and constituencies in the war zone, in allied capitals — and at home – New York Times

By promising to drastically slash spending, the Pentagon hopes to convince the U.S. Congress not to reduce its colossal budget. But experts say that may not be enough in a tough fiscal climate. - AFP

Stuart Koehl writes: [R]eports of the aircraft carrier’s demise are once again exaggerated. Just as the torpedo boat did not mean the end of the battleship, nor the submarine the end of the aircraft carrier, nor the anti-tank missile the main battle tank, nor the surface-to-air missile the end of combat aircraft, so the advent of an "anti-ship ballistic missile" will not mean the end of the aircraft carrier. I suspect, in fact, that it will prove less effective than a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile. – The Weekly Standard Blog
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China

It was to be a gesture of good will aimed at healing the wounds of a brutal colonial past. Instead, Japan’s apology to South Korea this week has raised suspicion in China over the motives for the gesture and scepticism among Koreans over its sincerity. – The National

A senior Chinese military strategist called planned U.S. naval exercises in the region a provocation and accused the Obama administration of seeking to encircle China and pursuing a "chaotic" approach toward Beijing. - Reuters

China's richest citizens are even wealthier than the statistics suggest, and may hold as much as 9.3 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of hidden assets, according to a Credit Suisse-sponsored study by a top economic think-tank. - Reuters

FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork writes: [I]t is no longer possible to deny the realities of power in Hong Kong. For years, all parties involved have maintained the fiction that under the "one country, two systems" arrangement, Hong Kong could advance to democracy on its own. As legislator [Margaret] Ng pointed out, that illusion can no longer be sustained. Nor can the U.S. policy based on that illusion. - Forbes
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Russia/Europe

In the weeks since he and three other prisoners were traded for 10 Russian sleeper agents on a Vienna tarmac, [Igor Sutyagin] has struggled to come to grips with his abrupt liberation and his role at the center of a geopolitical bargain intended to preserve warming relations between the United States and Russia. – New York Times

Russians like Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for boosting Moscow's image abroad and improving living standards but fault him for not fighting corruption or reining in billionaire oligarchs, a new opinion poll showed - Reuters

Fears that fires scorching forests polluted by Chernobyl fallout may propel dangerous amounts of radioactivity into the air are overblown, scientists say, and the actual health risks are very small - Reuters

William J. Dobson writes: A corrupt, unaccountable politics does more than run roughshod over its citizens. It brings poor governance. Even after the last fire is out, the system that permitted this summer's devastation, and that destroyed Khimki Forest, will remain. – Washington Post

Georgia on Aug. 12 accused Russia of taking an "extremely dangerous provocative step" by deploying a sophisticated missile defense system in Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia. - AFP

The new European Union ambassador to Washington has suggested that he will speak for Britain on foreign and security policy in America. - Telegraph

Signs of a possible truce between Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and rebels within his coalition emerged on Thursday after the conservative leader praised the "constructive approach" of some dissidents - Reuters
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Wikileaks

WikiLeaks spokesman Julian Assange said Thursday his organization is preparing to release the rest of the secret Afghan war documents it has on file. The Pentagon warned that would be more damaging to security and risk more lives than the organization's initial release of some 76,000 war documents – Associated Press

The Pentagon on Thursday told WikiLeaks it would be the "height of irresponsibility" if it went through with a new threat to publish outstanding documents it had on the Afghan war - Reuters
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Obama Administration

Josh Rogin: The nomination of Frank Ricciardone to be the next U.S. ambassador to Turkey is being held up in the Senate and the GOP has no intention of allowing a vote on the nomination any time soon. – The Cable
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The War

The first war crimes trial of the Obama administration began Thursday with brief opening arguments, but it almost immediately ran into the prospect of a significant delay after the military attorney for Omar Khadr, the youngest detainee at Guantanamo Bay, collapsed in the courtroom. – Washington Post

Prosecutors sought to use a Guantanamo defendant's own words against him Thursday, citing a statement in which he allegedly called himself a terrorist, while the defense suggested the altering of a witness report casts doubt on the prosecution's story. The arguments on the opening day of the long-delayed trial of Omar Khadr showed each side going back to the early days after his capture on an Afghan battlefield in 2002 at the age of 15, in a bid to present their versions of what really happened. – Wall Street Journal

One of the suspected masterminds of last month's bomb attacks on Uganda's capital Kampala said on Thursday his anger at the United States spurred his involvement in the plot, adding that it was intended to kill Americans - Reuters

Charles Krauthammer writes: America is a free country where you can build whatever you want -- but not anywhere. That's why we have zoning laws. No liquor store near a school, no strip malls where they offend local sensibilities, and, if your house doesn't meet community architectural codes, you cannot build at all. These restrictions are for reasons of aesthetics. Others are for more profound reasons of common decency and respect for the sacred. No commercial tower over Gettysburg, no convent at Auschwitz -- and no mosque at Ground Zero. – Washington Post
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India

India warned Thursday that it will block BlackBerry encrypted corporate e-mail and messaging services if local security agencies are not given access to them by the end of this month. – Washington Post

India's parliament is deadlocked over a bill that would limit how much foreign companies would pay to victims of a nuclear accident, as the U.S. and India move forward with a deal to help produce atomic energy in the subcontinent's growing economy. – Washington Times

For decades, India maintained hundreds of thousands of security forces in Kashmir to fight an insurgency sponsored by Pakistan, which claims this border region, too. The insurgency has been largely vanquished. But those Indian forces are still here, and today they face a threat potentially more dangerous to the world’s largest democracy: an intifada-like popular revolt against the Indian military presence that includes not just stone-throwing young men but their sisters, mothers, uncles and grandparents. – New York Times

The offer by the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, to give Kashmir a greater degree of political autonomy has received a tepid response from the state’s separatist leaders. It has also provoked outrage among Hindu nationalists, who are demanding that the entire region be integrated into the Indian state. – The National
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Burma/Myanmar

Myanmar announced Friday that it will hold its first election in two decades on Nov. 7, part of what analysts characterize as a bid by the secretive ruling military regime to appear more open and responsive to the outside world. – Los Angeles Times
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North Korea

World Cup soccer officials are investigating reports that North Korea's outmatched national team faced punishment by government officials back home after losing all three of its matches in South Africa. – Los Angeles Times

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Thursday recent provocations by North Korea against the south were probably tied to ailing leader Kim Jong-il's youngest son seeking to earn his military "stripes." - Reuters
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Japan

Renho, Japan's most powerful female politician and the ruling party's most recognizable face, says the world's second-biggest economy has to implement fresh laws if it wants to redress its dearth of high-ranking female executives and politicians. "We need to change laws. Before doing so, we should change mindset of men and people of a certain age and older," Renho said, in her first interview with the print media since upper house elections in July, in which she earned a record 1.7 million votes and became the youngest member of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's cabinet. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Africa

The U.S. gives about $1 billion annually to Ethiopia, more than to any other country in sub-Saharan Africa except Sudan. But even as U.S. and other international aid to Ethiopia has surged in the last decade, activists charge that the government has become more authoritarian. – Los Angeles Times

Goodluck Jonathan, the Nigerian president, has the right to contest elections next January, according to the chairman of Nigeria’s ruling People’s Democratic Party, although he stopped short of giving him outright backing. - Telegraph

Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army rebels have abducted 697 people in central Africa in the past 18 months, killing [255] of them, according to a human rights group investigation - Reuters

By a margin of two to one, on August 4th Kenyans endorsed a new constitution. It retains a presidential system, though with stronger checks and balances, plus a measure of devolution to 47 new counties. But differences between the country’s leading ethnic groups were huge, illustrating a persistently worrying ethnic polarisation of politics. - Economist
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Americas

A car bomb exploded on Thursday outside a radio station in Colombia's capital, wounding nine people and blowing out windows in the first major attack since President Juan Manuel Santos took office last weekend - Reuters
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Sunday Shows

As of publication, Meet the Press will host Gen. David Petraeus. Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Jack Reed (D-RI) will appear on Fox News Sunday.
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Announcements

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Events

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Fitzpatrick
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
August 16

The Next Phase in America's Relationship with Iraq
Center for a New American Security
August 17

Amb. Christopher Hill on the Next Chapter in Iraq
United States Institute of Peace
August 18

Homeland Security 2020: Maritime Security
Heritage Foundation
August 23

Homeland Security 2020: Science and Technology
Heritage Foundation
August 24

The Economic Element of National Power
Institute for National Security Studies
August 24-25

Homeland Security 2020: Working with the Private Sector
Heritage Foundation
August 25

Homeland Security 2020: Cybersecurity
Heritage Foundation
August 26

Homeland Security 2020: State and Local Efforts
Heritage Foundation
August 27

Empire for Liberty
Cato Institute
September 1

Recent Shifts in North American Relations
Hudson Institute
September 2

Advancing the Interests of Women and Girls
Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 7

The National Guard and Reserves
Center for a New American Security
September 7

Demography and Women's Empowerment
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 13

Previewing the September 26 Venezuelan Elections
Hudson Institute
September 15

Egypt at the Tipping Point
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 17

Governing the Far North
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 21

A Modern Narrative for Muslim Women in the Middle East
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 30

Canadian and US Power in the 21st Century
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 6

On the Trail of the DC Sniper: Fear and the Media
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 7

The Future of US-Indian Relations
Center for a New American Security
October 20
The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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