US election takeaways
Thu, Nov 08 2012

First of all, with votes still being counted, I have Obama at 50.2% of the vote … only 0.7% off my prediction. But he’ll climb!

No insight on my part. You just need to know who is the best poll analyst. For future reference, it’s this guy.

So what happened?

1. Romney managed to offend just about every constituency in America with the possible exception of white males, the loony-right and the super-rich … and that doesn’t quite get you over the top. Especially when you see the states where the key racial minorities live.

Here’s a good early analysis of who voted how.

2. That said, Romney will have received about 58 million votes when the counting is done. Two issues here.

First, which votes he won and didn’t win will be deeply analyzed, as the Republican Party prepares for two years of bitter civil war between the loony-right and the center-right for control of the future of that party. Even with Obama saddled with a crap economy and fiscal situation, the loony-right managed to scare off moderates who care about their wallets … but also believe in science (from global warming to evolution) and the right of women to control their own bodies!

Second, 58 million votes is a helluva lot of votes. What ‘mandate’ can Obama claim with his nearly 61 million votes? What Obama really won was a reluctant second chance. See this excellent analysis on that point. Unfortunately, it looks like a recipe for four more years of political paralysis unless Senate Republicans, in particular, come to their senses. Maybe it will help that five more women were elected to the Senate, bringing their number to a record twenty.
3. As for the future, this chart says it all. Obama got 80% of the racial minority vote. And this bloc is getting bigger and bigger.

Click for big version.

If the Republicans don’t walk away from their loony-right haters, they’re dead meat from here on out. A permanent ‘minority’ party in the other sense of the word!

That’s it for US politics … next post will focus closer to home.

Tom Belford

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