1 December 2024

Today marks the start of Summer and New Zealand is on track to make 2024 a landmark year for water safety, with drowning fatalities down 26% compared to the 10-year average.

As of today, 61 lives have been lost in water-related incidents—22 fewer than the 10-year average (82.7) and 17 fewer than at this time last year (78). But, as always, our thoughts are with all the families, whānau, and friends who have lost a loved one to drowning.

Water Safety New Zealand’s predictive modelling now forecasts 70 fatalities by year-end, potentially marking the lowest total since 2018 (66).

“This is a fantastic achievement and reflects the efforts of individuals, families, and communities across the country,” says Water Safety NZ Chief Executive Daniel Gerrard. “It’s worth celebrating, but it’s also a reminder that we can’t let our guard down.”

The Power of Action: How New Zealand is Achieving Results

Water Safety NZ attributes the significant reduction in drowning fatalities to a range of factors, including:

- Stable weather conditions: Fewer severe weather events in 2024 have reduced risks on New Zealand’s waterways.

- Preparing the next generation with quality water safety education: Programmes like Water Skills for Life™ have taught life-saving aquatic skills to over 100,000 children in 2024.

- Consistent safety messaging: Ongoing public awareness and location-specific interventions continue to reinforce the importance of water safety practices, encouraging behavioural change.

-Kiwi are making better decisions to keep themselves and their loved ones safer around water.

However, Gerrard warns that the work is far from over. Predictive modelling suggests that if current trends hold, the country could still see approximately one drowning every three days for the remainder of this year.

“Come on New Zealand—let’s keep water safety front of mind as we head into our favourite time of the year,” Gerrard urges. “This is a moment to celebrate our progress, while also continuing our dedication to water safety. Every life is precious, and every drowning is preventable.”

A Simple Guide to Staying Safe: 5 ways to Survive

With Summer officially kicking off, Water Safety NZ reminds all New Zealanders of five simple, actionable things you can do to stay safer in and around water:

• Know how to float: Learn to float before you need to.

• Find the safest place: Choose safe swimming spots where help is readily available. • If in doubt, stay out: Trust your instincts and avoid unnecessary risks. • Take care of yourself & others: Keep a close eye on children and swim with a buddy. • Know how to get help: Have a plan and know what to do in an emergency.

https://www.watersafetynz.org/water-safety-code

“By following the 5 ways to survive, you’re not just protecting yourself—you’re setting a positive example for others and contributing to a culture of having fun but staying safe”, says Gerrard.

Celebrating Progress While Addressing Challenges

This significant reduction in fatalities over 2024 means more than 20 families will celebrate Christmas together this year, without mourning the loss of a loved one, which is a testament to the collective impacts of our water safety efforts.

But challenges remain. Over-represented communities and activities at our riskiest locations continue to drive our high drowning rates. Water Safety NZ is committed to addressing this disparity through targeted initiatives and partnerships, ensuring that all New Zealanders enjoy the water safely.

“Our progress shows what’s possible, but we still have work to do,” Gerrard says. “Let’s keep pushing forward, together.”

New Zealand Drowning Prevention Report: A Deeper Dive into the Problem

In late January 2025, the annual New Zealand Drowning Prevention Report will be published, providing a comprehensive analysis of the nation’s overall drowning challenges. This report highlights the remarkable work being undertaken by the water safety community across the country and examines trending risks in specific environments, regions, activities, and demographic groups.

“This report serves as a critical tool for understanding risks and guiding action,” says Gerrard. “By leveraging data science and DrownBase™, we’re not just analysing data—we’re using it to focus efforts on the riskiest locations and supporting over-represented groups, ensuring our interventions are targeted and effective.”

The report will also make evidence-based recommendations to offer a roadmap for further progress in preventing drowning.

A Call to Action: Prove the Predictions Wrong

With summer here, our beaches and waterways will soon be bustling with activity. Water Safety NZ urges everyone to stay vigilant and finish 2024 strong.

“New Zealand, we’re doing a fantastic job. Let’s keep it up!” Gerrard concludes. “Prove the predictions wrong, stay safe, and make this summer one to remember—for all the right reasons.”

Note:

Water Safety NZ’s Predictive modelling

Predictive modelling is a powerful tool that uses data analysis to identify patterns, assess risks, and anticipate potential injuries or fatalities. It is widely used in sectors like workplace safety, and traffic management to guide proactive interventions and resource allocation, ultimately reducing harm and saving lives.

For Water Safety NZ, predictive modelling is a cornerstone of its strategy to prevent drowning fatalities and injuries. By analysing data such as coronial records, non-fatal data and injury statistics, Water Safety NZ can pinpoint high-risk areas, behaviours, and groups, enabling targeted, data-driven interventions. This approach reflects best practices in injury prevention and reinforces WSNZ's commitment to innovative, life-saving initiatives in water safety.

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