MetService is forecasting changeable weather for most of Aotearoa/New Zealand, as a front sweeps up the country today (Monday) and tomorrow, followed by strong southerlies and cooler temperatures.

Several Severe Weather Watches for heavy rain and strong winds have been issued for the upper North Island and central New Zealand.

MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker says, "Auckland northwards, the Bay of Plenty and the Coromandel, will see periods of heavy rain until late on Monday, with thunderstorms possible. Further south, a strong southerly change will be particularly gusty from late Monday afternoon for the Kaikōura Coast, Marlborough Sounds, Wellington and coastal Wairarapa."

A Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for the Wairoa District for the entirety of Tuesday, and that rain will stick around for the eastern North Island for a few more days. Bay of Plenty, from Ōpōtiki southeastwards, can expect strong southeasterly winds from late Tuesday evening.

In contrast to last week's balmy temperatures, the start of this week will be rather cooler for many.

"A few locations will see around a ten degree temperature drop from Monday to Tuesday. Masterton's maximums plummet from 27°C to 15°C, and Hastings from 29°C to 18°C," Bakker says. After that dip, temperatures will return to a more summery average later in the week.

Later in the week, rain is looking likely for the eastern South Island. With parts of Canterbury recording less than 5mm of rain since the start of December, it will hopefully be a welcome relief.

We are starting to see the first glimpses of the potential Christmas day weather appearing on MetService.com. However, there is still plenty of variability in the forecasts until we find out if we’ve been put on the naughty or nice list for the festive period.

The current story looks to be favouring westerly winds across the country, bringing cloudier skies and wetter weather to the west of Aotearoa New Zealand. Which location gets the best of the weather depends on a ridge of high pressure and how strong the system remains over the country. At this range, the forecast is best used as a general guide for the festive period and the best advice is to keep up with the latest updates on metservice.com as more information becomes available heading towards Christmas.

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