27/01/2025
Covering period of Monday 27 - Thursday 30 January

MetService is forecasting a quieter weather day on Tuesday before another system sweeps across the South Island later in the day and into Wednesday, bringing rain and strong winds. Meanwhile, the North Island gets a reprieve from the muggy conditions of the past weekend, enjoying fresher air ahead of the next weather system later this week.

Following the devastating tornado in Mangawhai early on Sunday morning, Monday brought yet another day of unsettled weather for parts of Aotearoa New Zealand. Showers and thunderstorms were widespread in the east, with unseasonable snow falling in elevated parts of Canterbury, driven by a cold front moving northward. For regions marking Auckland Anniversary Day in the northern half of the North Island, the day was brighter and more settled.

This brighter weather extends across much of the country on Tuesday, thanks to a brief ridge of high pressure. MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane explains, “After an active couple of days weather-wise, many may welcome a bright and sunny summer day. However, the odd shower may still pop up in the western South Island and upper North Island. Later in the afternoon, the next weather system begins to make its presence felt.”

From Tuesday afternoon, winds strengthen over the lower South Island as the approaching weather system brings the potential for Heavy Rain and Strong Winds. MetService has issued Strong Wind Watches from Fiordland to inland Canterbury for Tuesday late afternoon to Wednesday. Heavy Rain Watches are also in effect for Fiordland and the ranges of the Westland District, primarily overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. In the eastern South Island, brief rain is expected on Wednesday as the weather system moves through, while conditions clear on Thursday, with lingering rain possible for Buller and Tasman. The rain reaches the lower North Island early Thursday, where it is expected to be for much of the day.

In the North Island, the muggy conditions of recent days are replaced by cooler, fresher air. Single-digit temperatures may greet some areas in the central and lower North Island on Tuesday morning. “I imagine the cooler temperatures will make sleeping a lot easier for many compared to these last few nights,” adds Makgabutlane. However, warm overnight temperatures return to the lower North Island towards the end of the working week.

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) - take cover now:

• This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
• When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
• Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
• In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

• Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
• Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
• During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan

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