MetService is expecting Cyclone Fili to track southeast towards Aotearoa- New Zealand on Tuesday and then cross the country close to East Cape around midday Wednesday. This is expected to be a significant event for parts of the North Island with impacts of wind, rain, and swell. Meanwhile, a cold front bringing rain sweeps over the South Island Tuesday, then onto the North Island Wednesday as the cyclone rapidly moves away to the southeast.

MetService Meteorologist Rob Kerr says, “Fili has long since been declassified from its Tropical Cyclone status and has been slow-moving just south of New Caledonia for the last couple of days. However, it is going to deepen and accelerate towards New Zealand today, and cross eastern North Island during Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and potentially severe gales to areas from Northland to Wairarapa,” Kerr adds.

“Heavy Rain Warnings and Watches start in Northland Tuesday morning and spread to Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay from Tuesday evening where up to 300mm may accumulate in 24 hours.” says Kerr, “Strong winds wrapping around this low means both southeasterlies ahead of the low and southwesterlies following the low may rise to severe gales, consequently Wind Warnings and Watches cover the entire North Island Tuesday and Wednesday, with particular focus on Auckland and Gisborne,” says Kerr.

Along with wind and rain, large waves for coastal areas exposed to Cyclone Fili are expected. A deep low, combined with large waves and high tides could see some areas in the north and east affected by sea inundation and coastal erosion.

Whilst a lot of focus is on the low approaching from the north, there is also a front moving over the South Island Monday night and through Tuesday morning is set to bring welcome rain to parched parts of Southland and Otago. Heavy Rain Warnings and Watches are in place now for Fiordland and southern Westland due to the rain today and into Tuesday morning.

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