In the wake of the recent devastating rain event in the upper South Island, MetService is forecasting additional rainfall this week for already sodden areas, but much lower amounts.

Today (Monday), a low-pressure system is crossing Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island, bringing bursts of rainfall and a risk of thunderstorms. Though rainfall amounts will remain below typical warning thresholds, there is a Heavy Rain Watch for Tasman west of Motueka from this afternoon into the evening where brief heavy rain (20-35mm could accumulate in some places) may result in further impacts following last week's flooding. Nelson city is also likely to catch some rain later today as the low brushes past to the north.

Showery weather over the North Island will subside tomorrow as the low pressure system moves away. Meanwhile, weather for Te Waipounamu/South Island remains settled until a front from the south arrives, with heavy rain getting underway in Fiordland tomorrow evening and an Orange Warning is in place there.

The front moves northwards on Wednesday as heavy rain spreads up the West Coast and a Heavy Rain Watch is in place. Strong northwesterly wind gusts are forecast in exposed parts of Southland and Otago from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning where Strong Wind Watches are in place.

MetService meteorologist Dan Corrigan says, “We’re keeping an especially close eye on another low pressure system that’s forecast to cross the country on Thursday. Rainfall with this system could bring further impacts to already sodden areas like Nelson, Tasman, and Marlborough, so we urge people to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings from MetService.”

“However, this system will be moving quickly, so we’re not expecting continuous heavy rainfall on the scale of last week’s event,” continues Corrigan.

After last week’s unusually warm run of days, temperatures are returning to normal for what is expected in late August. It will get a little bit colder for the lower South Island after the passage of Wednesday’s front with daytime highs just making it into double digits.

“The outlook isn’t all bleak, though; high pressure is expected to establish itself across Aotearoa this weekend to bring a settled end to a very unsettled winter,” adds Corrigan.

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