In the all-important leadup to Christmas, MetService is forecasting unsettled, thundery weather, followed by a generally improving trend. A low pressure centre in the Tasman Sea has been gradually moving eastwards and is expected to travel over central Aotearoa/New Zealand on Friday. The low is followed by a developing ridge of high pressure which brings more settled weather.

Although there are currently no broadscale warnings for severe weather for tomorrow, MetService has issued two Severe Thunderstorm Watches for Thursday afternoon and evening, one covering most of the North Island from Waikato to northern Wairarapa, and the other for inland parts of Southland and Otago. This means a particularly severe thunderstorm could pop up in any of those areas.

MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker warns, “Severe thunderstorms can bring localised downpours with intensities of 25 to 40 mm per hour. Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding.” For the North Island Watch area, there is also a possibility of small tornadoes associated with any severe thunderstorms.

On Friday, the risk of thunderstorms lessens, but sparks are possible for the east coast of the South Island, and southern and western parts of the North Island. Although the weather will remain broadly unsettled and showery, some regions can expect fine weather.

“Westland through to Fiordland ought to be shower-free, along with Northland, while other northern and eastern parts of the North Island should only get a couple of showers.” says Bakker.

Christmas Eve starts off well, with generally fine weather and only the odd shower. Later in the day, most of the South Island will see scattered showers, as well as eastern and central parts of the North Island. Christmas Day itself looks even better, with most places expecting fine weather, although we expect some showers to bubble up about inland areas in the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of thunderstorms. So, if you’re planning a Kiwi Christmas on the beach, pack sunscreen and a hat along with the pavlova.

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