The first tropical cyclone of the 2023 season in the South Pacific was named by the forecast team at the Fiji Meteorological Service on Sunday morning. It tracked into New Zealand’s area of responsibility later Sunday and was reclassified as a tropical low by MetService.

MetService Meteorologist Peter Little comments, “Cyclone Hale is currently located southeast of New Caledonia, and is forecast to continue tracking southeastwards before curving toward the North Island on Tuesday. Cyclone Hale will likely pass southwards over the central or eastern North Island on Wednesday, before moving away from the country. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and movement of Cyclone Hale, but it will bring a period of heavy rain, gale or severe gale winds and hazardous coastal conditions to parts of the North Island and Marlborough from Monday evening through until Thursday morning.”

Little says, “The most likely regions to be impacted by heavy rain are Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, while much of the North Island will experience a period of gale or severe gale winds from the southeast and/or southwest. Several Severe Weather Warnings and Watches have been issued, and more areas will be added as the system moves closer and its track and intensity become more certain.”

Eastern coastlines from Northland to Wairarapa are also expected to take a battering from large waves on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Little explains, “Easterly swells of 4 to 6 metres are forecast to impact eastern facing coasts from Northland to Wairarapa on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could lead to coastal inundation and erosion around high tide. The largest swells are expected to affect Coromandel Peninsula, western Bay of Plenty and Gisborne on Tuesday.”

Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure remains anchored over most of the South Island bringing relatively settled weather there, especially to the West Coast.

“The West Coast of the South Island has been enjoying a period of very sunny and warm weather this year, with Hokitika recording its 4th equal highest maximum temperature of 28.2°C on Sunday (recording began 59 years ago). Their run of dry and warm weather is predicted to continue this week, with highs in the mid-twenties and just the chance of a shower,” adds Little.

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