Following on from Friday’s deluge across Auckland, other parts of the North Island have begun to feel the brunt of the severe weather. Many North Island locations remain vulnerable and will see further driving rain in the coming days, warns MetService.

In the last 36 hours rainfall tallies have piled up across many regions. The inland ranges of the Bay of Plenty got the highest numbers (one location measured 302mm over 36 hours, although less than Auckland Friday night event), but a broad swath of over 100mm across large reaches of the North Island meant that flooding, slips and road closures have continued to cause problems all weekend. Extensive flooding resulted in a State of Emergency being declared in the Waitomo region on Saturday evening.

Rain has temporarily eased in some areas, but MetService forecasters are warning people in these saturated places that things are not over, and to be prepared for significant bouts of further rainfall through the first half of this week.

MetService meteorologist Angus Hines explains, “The feed from the Tropics of humid, rain-laden air shows no sign of letting up any time soon. Large rainfall figures are still expected, and this is in addition to the immense rain which has already fallen.”

While this rain will spread across many areas, there are places of particular concern.

“Te Tai Tokerau/Northland is going to get waves of impactful rain in the coming days, especially overnight tonight (Sunday), and again from Tuesday. An Orange Rain Warning is in places for that area for the first of these waves, and more weather warnings are likely to be issued in the coming days,” said Hines

“Following the devastating flooding in Auckland on Friday, further bouts of upcoming rain will quickly put stress on already saturated soils, meaning more flooding and road closures are likely this week.”

Considering the saturated soils in the far north of the country the MetService Severe Weather Team will be operating with reduced warning criteria for Auckland and Northland. “This is due to a risk of further flooding in already saturated areas with lesser amounts of rain than would normally cause concern. Impacts will be felt faster than normal, so it’s important we can warn the public.” explained Hines.

When asked about when this rainfall was clearing, Hines said “The worst of the rain for the North Island looks to clear by lunchtime on Thursday, although we can’t rule out some showers lingering right into the weekend. However, for those down South, who have so far avoided most of the rain, there will be wet weather through much of the week, especially west of the Southern Alps.”

Understanding our Severe Weather Watches and Warnings

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan

Watches

are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Orange Warnings

are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action

Red Warnings

are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

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