Covering period of Saturday 11 - Tuesday 14 February

Key information from MetService:

- MetService have issued a Heavy Rain Red Warning for Coromandel Peninsula and Tairāwhiti Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay. A MetService Red Warning is our highest warning for severe weather. Other areas could be upgraded to a red warning later in this event.
- MetService Orange Warnings issued for severe wind and heavy rain; Northland, Auckland north of Whangaparaoa and including Great Barrier Island, Coromandel (wind), the rest of Tairāwhiti Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. 
- Central Auckland is still under a Watch for Severe Wind and Rain as this is due to uncertainty of track position and impacts but could be upgraded. 
- Large swell and storm surge leading to possible coastal inundation for northern and eastern coasts.
- The cyclone track can still change which impacts the areas affected so important to stay up to date with MetService Warnings and Watches.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is still heading for New Zealand likely to arrive slightly earlier for Northland (on Saturday night). Independent of the eventual track, there is a very high risk of extreme and impactful weather over the upper North Island late Saturday then spreading south to central New Zealand by Monday.

MetService have issued its highest level of warning – a Red Warning for heavy rain for Coromandel Peninsula where 300 to 400mm of rain if expected in the ranges and Tairāwhiti Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay expecting the same numbers throughout the area. Peak intensities of 10 to 15mm per hour expected Sunday and 20 to 30mm per hour on Monday when the most intense rain is expected to fall.

Head of Weather Communication, Lisa Murray advises, “Central Auckland is still under a Severe Weather Watch. It hasn’t been upgraded due to the uncertainty of movement of the cyclone, but it could be in the near future,” Lisa continues, “Auckland is already sodden from recent events which could exacerbate impacts of any strong wind and rain.”

MetService Orange Warnings for Heavy Rain have been issued for Northland, north Auckland including Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Tairāwhiti Gisborne, and Hawke’s Bay ranging between tonight (Saturday) and Tuesday. The bulk of the rain is expected on Monday and some areas can expect to see accumulations through this event of 250 plus millimetres of rain.

Orange Wind Warnings have been issued for the Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and Auckland north of Whangaparaoa and including Great Barrier Island, where severe gales with gusts of 120 to 130 km/h are possible.

“Strong wind gusts could damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures. These already sodden grounds from recent floods, increases the likelihood of trees being uprooted from that heavy rain and strong winds which adds to the risk of power outages,” says Lisa.

“Heavy rain will likely cause surface flooding and landslips, as well as hazardous road conditions and road washouts. Heavy rain will also cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly.”

“When there is a deep low (cyclone) just off the coast of New Zealand we see a rise in ocean level. This along with long with 5-7 metre large waves and onshore wind, may enhance coastal inundation and this effect is worse at high tide,” Lisa explains.

MetService advises that the warning period could be extended in future updates, which will be highly dependent on the track of Cyclone Gabrielle. Additional areas may be upgraded to a Red Warning in consultation with Regional Councils and Emergency Management groups.

Lisa advises, “During the severe weather from Sunday to Tuesday (depending where in the North Island and top of South Island you are situated), people should hunker down till the severe weather passes, if at all possible.”

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to change from a tropical cyclone to a to a sub-tropical low tomorrow.

Lisa highlights, “This does not mean it weakens, in fact it spreads the strong wind and heavy rain across a wider area.”

At this point MetService will refer to weather system Cyclone Gabrielle so there is no confusion.

This is an unfolding event and forecasts will be updated so it is important to stay in the know. Now is a good time to download the MetService App which includes all safety critical weather information. Details can also be found at MetService.com (http://bit.ly/AllWarnings) and @MetService Facebook and Twitter.

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