MetService says there is a risk of thunderstorms in some of the vulnerable areas today, but the weekend sees settled weather across the country.

MetService has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 3pm-10pm today (Thursday) for Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupō, Tairāwhiti Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay. This Watch shows the regions where the thunderstorms could form, but any impacts are going to be on a much smaller scale.

The cold air aloft creates unstable conditions in the atmosphere over parts of the North Island today, the ideal setup for isolated thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe.

MetService meteorologist Andrew James explains, “The thunderstorms will be short-lived and fast moving. With that front whipping up from the south, any thunderstorms that do form will move through quickly. They’re not going to hang around.”

“MetService is only expecting a few thunderstorms to pop up this afternoon – most likely in the Bay of Plenty region and the Tairāwhiti Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay ranges,” Andrew continues “This type of activity is always spotty and pinpointing exactly where impacts will be is difficult – that’s the complexity of forecasting thunderstorms and why we have such a broad area under watch. Although thunderstorms through Tairāwhiti Gisborne ranges of this sort are not normally an issue, this extra rainfall could exacerbate the already vulnerable area.”

This event is going to be very localised – and will be very different to the widespread rain from the last few days – but with ground already sodden and rivers still high, even localised rain will be problematic.

Individual thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of 25-40mm/hr and there is a chance of hail in the Bay of Plenty region.

Thunderstorm activity eases late tonight and a few showers hang around into Friday morning, but the weekend sees settled weather across the country.

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