Possible severe weather replaces the sunny, settled weather for the top of the country today (Thursday), with MetService issuing Severe Weather Watches for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. Northern and eastern areas of both islands are in for a damp weekend while the southern areas of the South Island are the place to be.

After a week of sunshine and frosty mornings, the settled weather comes to an end as a front and associated low reaches the upper North Island tonight. This system brings a potential for heavy falls of rain to Northland where a Heavy Rain Watch is in effect.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has also been issued for Northland and Great Barrier Island from later this evening, detailing a risk of localised downpours, strong winds and possible tornadoes.

MetService meteorologist Ngaire Wotherspoon says, “Northland is likely in the firing line starting this evening, until at least late tomorrow morning as the front tracks south. We expect the front to reach Auckland early Friday morning, when a Heavy Rain Watch comes into effect from Whangaparaoa northwards.”

The key thing to note here is the risk of some of these thunderstorms becoming severe with possible downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h. MetService expert forecasters will be monitoring this 24/7 and will issue a Red Thunderstorm Warning if severe thunderstorms are detected on the MetService radar. Keeping up to date on our MetService App and website is advised.

The risk of heavy rain spreads to Coromandel Friday afternoon, when cloudy and wetter weather starts to affect many other parts of the North Island, as the system is forecast to travel eastward.

“While the areas covered by the Severe Weather Watches are the most likely to see the effects of this weather system, the location of the most impactful weather will depend on the position of the low. At this stage there is some uncertainty as to how this will play out,” says Wotherspoon.

Showers will linger in the far north on Saturday, while more persistent and possibly heavy rainfall reaches Tairawhiti-Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa. Similar conditions spread to Marlborough, Nelson, and northern Canterbury for the start of the weekend.

“Westland, Southland, and Otago on the other hand are in for a mainly dry weekend but remain chilly, while rest of the country can expect overnight temperatures to recover after this week’s cold spell,” says Wotherspoon.

Little changes for the rest of the weekend and into Monday, with rainy weather continuing along the east coast and more showers in the north.

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