Covering period of Thu 02 - Mon 06 May

We’re inching closer to winter and MetService is forecasting temperatures on the cooler side for the first two weeks of May due to winds generally approaching from the southwest. However, settled conditions are forecast for most of the country this weekend, so even if the morning is chilly, a lot of people will be in for a sunny afternoon.

Most parts of Aotearoa will feel the cold southwest winds today (Thursday). Although the winds ease on Friday this is when waves are expected to peak around coastal areas. A large southerly swell is forecast for Wellington from Friday afternoon into Saturday. Gradually the coastal conditions will ease over the weekend as winds tend to be on the lighter side.

The southern end of the South Island is most likely to see showers on Friday but come Saturday the risk of rain decreases and most of the country will be in for a dry day. However, the clear skies and light winds mean chilly starts to the day. Parts of Central Otago will likely drop below freezing but it’ll be southern parts of the North Island which are in for the biggest departure from norm. Paraparaumu starts Saturday off around 4°C which is about five degrees below average for this time in May.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris states, “for most of the country, Sunday will look much the same as Saturday but people north of Waikato will need to keep an eye on the forecast as there is a band of moisture hanging around which could mean a soggy day for some. This rain isn’t associated with a well-developed weather system so it’s very likely the forecast details will change as we get closer to the time.”

The new working week kicks off with another burst of southwesterly winds moving up the country so expect showers and cool temperatures to make another appearance.

Bottom Line from our May Outlook: A dry and cold opening fortnight for most of the country, despite a notable burst of rain on May 1st. Westerly fronts return with regularity over the second half of the month and rainfall distributions look more like normal for late Autumn. Recall May is typically a wet month in NZ, so even with a drier than normal outlook overall we will still see a number of wet days, especially from mid-month.

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