Covering period of Thursday 25 - Monday 29 July

This week, parts of Aotearoa New Zealand are enjoying a brief break from biting winter temperatures. However, MetService forecasts a return to cold and wet winter conditions next week with an incoming weather system.

On Wednesday, Dunedin experienced its warmest temperature in nearly two months at 17°C. Generous sunshine also brought double-digit temperatures to Alexandra for the first time in weeks. Thursday and Friday promise similar temperatures for parts of Southland, Otago, and Canterbury. “Ashburton could reach 18°C, though still shy of their July record of 21.6°C. Invercargill may however surpass its July record with a forecast 17°C,” says MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane.

This warm spell is due to a northwesterly flow bringing warmer air. However, this same flow spells the approach of a weather system set to bring wet weather to the western South Island, with a Heavy Rain Watch in effect for Friday and Saturday. Other areas might see brief showers over the weekend.

However, all eyes are on a weather system arriving next week. It looks to bring rain to the South Island from early Monday morning and spreading to the North Island later in the day. “While the heaviest rain areas are still to play for, Otago, Canterbury, and Marlborough are possibilities,” says Makgabutlane.

Colder air accompanying this system will cause a noticeable drop in temperatures and potential heavy snowfall for the South Island on Monday and Tuesday and lesser amounts possible for the North Island's central plateau. “The upcoming chill might not break winter records, but it will feel stark compared to the current warmer temperatures,” Makgabutlane explains.

People are advised to stay updated with the Severe Weather Outlook for the latest forecasts. “Closer to the time, it would also be wise to check Waka Kotahi NZTA’s website for road conditions that may be affected by snowfall,” adds Makgabutlane.

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