Covering period of Thursday 19 - Sunday 22 September

MetService is forecasting more active spring weather across Aotearoa New Zealand, with showers, thunderstorms, and strong winds on the horizon. However, for many, Saturday brings a break in the weather and a chance to enjoy the other side of what spring has to offer.

The western South Island is set for another round of wet conditions. MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane elaborates, “Many parts of the West Coast and Fiordland have experienced rain nearly every day this month, with year-to-date rainfall already tracking above average. The coming days, including Thursday, Friday, and the weekend, are likely to follow the same pattern with more rain from the west and the possibility of heavier falls during thunderstorms.”

While the wet weather is approaching from the west, few areas of the country will manage to escape rain or showers in the days ahead. Thunderstorms are also expected to make an appearance. In addition to the western South Island, Tasman and the Marlborough Sounds could see thunderstorms on Friday, while much of the North Island, including Auckland, may experience thunderstorms Friday afternoon or evening. Wellington and the eastern North Island look to be the exceptions.

Sharp westerly winds have been a common feature of spring 2024 so far and this continues on Thursday and Friday, especially for the North Island. “Road users, especially those in Auckland, may do well to check any impacts to road conditions on Waka Kotahi NZTA’s website,” Makgabutlane advised. Saturday brings a brief respite before things pick up again on Sunday.

“In fact, Saturday is shaping up to be the pick of the weekend, with the strongest winds easing and the wettest weather largely confined to the western South Island. At this time of year, it’s always a good idea to make the most of any fine weather, as the next spell of unsettled conditions is never far behind,” Makgabutlane says.

This seems to ring true, as rain and showers look set to spread northwards up the country on Sunday, bringing a damp period for some to end the weekend.

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) - take cover now:

• This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
• When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
• Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
• In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

• Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
• Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
• During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan

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