12/12/2024

Covering period of Thursday 12 - Monday 16 December

MetService is forecasting a period of heavy rain for the upper half of the North Island today (Thursday) with thunderstorms and localised downpours possible as an area of low pressure descends from the northern Tasman Sea.

Associated with the passage of the low is a - Heavy Rain Watch, currently in place, stretching from the Coromandel Peninsula to Gisborne/Tairāwhiti, covering the Bay of Plenty. Meanwhile, rain moves up the West Coast. Tomorrow, more settled conditions develop for the North Island as a ridge takes hold and scattered shower for the South Island as the rain band from the day before eases and becomes stationary.

Looking to the weekend we see the mercury rise for much of the country especially in the east as warm and humid westerlies spread east. Those westerlies provide a resurgence for the stalled rain band, bringing a wet Saturday to the West Coast with patchy showers south of Marlborough.

MetService meteorologist Alec Holden says, “For those on the North Island looking to enjoy summertime activities such as watching the Black Caps play in Hamilton or joining in on the Christmas in the Park festivities in Auckland, conditions are set to be fine, if a bit muggy.” Sunday looks much that same as the day before, with rain is set to ease for the West Coast and temperatures across the South Island track closer to what we’d expected to see at this time of year.

Showers and rain greet many at the start of the next working week as the ridge over the North Island breaks down. The stalled front lingering over the South Island finally moves north bringing a change to southwesterly winds, dropping the temperatures for Canterbury southward.

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) - take cover now:

• This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
• When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
• Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
• In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

• Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
• Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
• During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan

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