It’s a wet start to Christmas week as showers persist for most areas of Aotearoa/New Zealand today (Monday), especially in the east of the South Island where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. A quieter, brighter and drier day of weather arrives on Christmas Eve. For Christmas Day the best of the weather is likely to be first thing ahead of cloudier skies and wetter weather moving in from the west.

For Monday, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the eastern half of the South Island, continuing the trend observed over the past weekend, where afternoons have seen areas of thunderstorms with localised downpours. There is also a moderate risk for afternoon thunderstorms over Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay. Showers over the country are expected to ease late this evening or in the early hours of Christmas Eve.

Christmas Eve is looking like the pick of the week, with sunny spells expected over much of New Zealand on Tuesday. Late in the day, rain is forecast to arrive in Fiordland with an approaching front from the Tasman Sea. But what does this spell for the big day?

MetService Meteorologist Oscar Shiviti says: “A warm and sunny start is expected for most of the country on Christmas Day. Rain then spreads north along the western half of the South Island during Christmas morning and extends eastwards in the afternoon”. In the North Island, a dry Christmas morning is expected ahead of rain reaching the western half of the island during the afternoon, with Northland most likely to receive the first drops of rain. The rest of the North Island can expect rain later in the day.

“The east of the North Island, particularly Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, looks best placed to stay dry for much of Christmas Day and will also see some of the highest temperatures of the day. However, a few showers are expected to squeeze through the Manawatu Gorge during the afternoon, affecting parts of the Wairarapa,” Shiviti says.

“It is also looking like a good Christmas day weatherwise for New Zealanders in the far south of the North Island, namely Wellington and Kapiti, as rain is only expected to move onto these areas in the evening, if at all” continues Shiviti.

Rain is expected to persist over parts of Aotearoa/New Zealand on Boxing Day as a low-pressure system moves over northern areas. The wet conditions are expected to clear from the south of the South Island during the evening.

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