Covering period of Thu 30 Jan - Mon 3 Feb

Parts of New Zealand are in for a smattering of rain this weekend, this isn’t to be expected everywhere but cloud will be more widespread. However, MetService will be keeping a close eye on tropical developments around the Coral Sea.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris states; “It’s been a slow start to the tropical cyclone season around the South Pacific, but as we head through the weekend and into next week, we see the potential for a tropical cyclone to spin up. The area of interest is between Vanuatu and Australia, well away from Aotearoa giving us plenty of time to understand where any potential cyclone might track.”

Closer to home, the weather is more mundane. Risk of widespread severe weather is kept to a minimum by a large area of high pressure around our shores. However, a swathe of warm, humid air is producing a bit of rain around central parts of the country today (Thursday). This risk of rain appears to meander around the country over the weekend, but if you keep up with your local forecast you should be able to find a dry time to enjoy the outdoors, or hang the washing out. Finding a nice cloudless afternoon could prove a bit more challenging.

Current weather models forecast the area of high pressure to hold on through the first week of February, including Waitangi Day, but maybe breaking down towards the end of the working week. Temperatures are predicted to be around average for February, which might come as a relief to those along the east coasts who had a chilly run of southerly winds through January. Parts of Canterbury up to Gisborne have been 2°C to 3°C below their historic mean January temperature.

On the other side of the South Island, West Coasters have been warmer and much drier than usual. “Milford Sound has recorded a measly ~120mm of rain, over 500mm less than their average January! Moving north, Nelson Airport has recorded ~130mm, but it looks like Kerikeri was the wettest place this month with just over 200mm recorded,” Ferris said.

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