Covering period of Monday 31st March - Thursday 3rd April

As another month with below-average rainfall comes to a close, MetService is forecasting a wet and warm second half of the week. This is as a large weather system approaches from the Tasman Sea, bringing with it much-needed rainfall to parched areas of Aotearoa New Zealand.

By the last day of the month, parts of Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, and Waikato have received less than half of their typical March rainfall.

MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane comments, “It would seem that March is carrying the baton, continuing the legacy of a dry 2025 so far. Many will be looking for rain about now, and this week holds one of the more promising rain-bearing weather systems we have seen in a while.”

While the start of the week sees settled weather prevail—apart from the odd shower for some spots—Wednesday into Thursday marks a shift to wetter conditions as a large weather system moves across the country. Western and northern parts of both the North and South Islands may see heavy rain, while strong northerly winds are also possible, particularly for the North Island.

“Whether the rain and wind arrive late Wednesday or Thursday, the second half of the week will be the one to watch. Keep an eye on the MetService website for Severe Weather Watches or Warnings issued in the coming days, as well as more information about any potential impacts,” Makgabutlane advises.

Western parts of the North Island have been relying on spotty showers that have only brought patchy rainfall. This weather system looks to bring more widespread wet weather. It will take more than this one system to make a meaningful difference to the current dry situation. However, it is a step in the right direction.

Warm, humid nights are also in store later this week as a moist, northerly airflow covers the country. Overnight temperatures in the mid to high teens can be expected for many, a stark contrast to the recent low single digits that brought frost to some areas. Auckland can expect nighttime lows of around 18°C for most of this week, while Christchurch will only drop to 15°C on Friday morning—its warmest overnight temperature in over a month.

“The last time much of the country saw overnight temperatures this warm was mid-February with a similar system from the Tasman Sea. The result will be very different feeling weather compared to the cold fronts from the southwest that have been the norm recently,” Makgabutlane says.

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